如果您尚未出售以太坊（ETH -0.51％），儘管它下降了

如果您尚未出售以太坊（ETH -0.51％），儘管今年到目前為止下降了約40％

If you haven't sold your Ethereum (ETH -0.51%) yet despite its decline of about 40% so far this year, you're almost certainly convinced of its long-term utility and there are plenty of reasons to support that thesis. But if you're holding this coin for the long haul, you should be aware of one insidious risk in particular that's quickly emerging. It's an issue that's probably significant enough to encourage some investors to sell their holdings right now. Let's evaluate this new threat to see if that's a smart move or not.

如果您尚未出售以太坊（ETH -0.51％），儘管今年到目前為止下降了約40％，那麼幾乎可以肯定，您相信它的長期效用，並且有很多理由支持該論文。但是，如果您長期以來持有這枚硬幣，那麼您應該意識到一個陰險的風險，特別是很快就會出現。這個問題可能足夠重要，可以鼓勵一些投資者立即出售其持股。讓我們評估這一新威脅，看看這是否是明智之舉。

Tech upgrades may make it a victim of its own success

技術升級可能使其成為自己成功的受害者

As you may know, for each transaction processed on Ethereum's network, the transactor must pay a "gas fee" with the blockchain's coin, Ether. As of noon on May 1, the average gas fee to make a swap of one token for another is $1.15 on average. The majority of each gas fee gets burned -- in other words, destroyed, removing coins from the total supply.

如您所知，對於在以太坊網絡上處理的每項交易，交易者必須用區塊鏈的硬幣Ether支付“汽油費”。截至5月1日中午，將一個令牌交換的平均汽油費平均為1.15美元。每筆汽油費的大部分都被燒毀了 - 換句話說，被摧毀，從總供應中清除硬幣。

The fact that gas fees are destroyed means that Ethereum's total supply is constantly under downward pressure. At the same time, new Ether is slowly disbursed by the protocol to the network's stakers to reward them for locking up their capital. So the coin's supply isn't inherently inflationary or deflationary, though it has trended toward mild to moderate inflation during most of its existence so far.

汽油費被破壞的事實意味著以太坊的總供應不斷下降。同時，該網絡的Stakers協議逐漸宣布了新的Ether，以獎勵他們鎖定資本。因此，硬幣的供應不是固有的通貨膨脹或通貨膨脹，儘管到目前為止，它的大部分存在都趨向於輕度至中度通貨膨脹。

Separately, the Ethereum network has long struggled with high gas fees compared to its competitors. Its efforts to fix that have involved a series of upgrades to its technology as well as a few innovative solutions, like spinning off as much traffic as possible to more efficient independently operated subnetworks called Layer 2s. Those efforts have been phenomenally successful in absolute terms, even if they haven't yet made the Ethereum chain as cheap to use as its peers. During the past three years, average Ethereum transaction fees have fallen by more than 98%.

另外，與競爭對手相比，以太坊網絡長期以來一直在高汽油費中掙扎。它的修復努力涉及對其技術的一系列升級以及一些創新的解決方案，例如，將盡可能多的流量轉移到更有效的獨立運行的子網絡，稱為第2層。這些努力在絕對的角度取得了驚人的成功，即使他們還沒有像同行一樣使以太坊鏈變得便宜。在過去的三年中，平均以太坊交易費用下降了98％以上。

But that's a problem from the perspective of the coin's total supply. As gas fees have fallen dramatically, so have the amounts of the coin burned with each transaction. With much weaker downward pressure on supply, the impact of its new coin issuance is higher, and because of the tech upgrades already made -- not to mention future updates on the way that will likely send gas fees even lower -- there's not going to be as strong of a counterweight to its supply growth ever again. There's thus now a risk that Ethereum's value will get steadily diluted more rapidly over the next few years.

但這是從硬幣總供應的角度來看的問題。隨著氣體費用急劇下降，每筆交易都燃燒的硬幣量也是如此。由於供應的下降壓力較小，其新硬幣發行的影響更高，而且由於技術升級已經進行了 - 更不用說未來可能會使汽油費甚至更低的更新 - 不會像供應增長一樣強大。因此，現在有一種風險，即以太坊的價值將在未來幾年內穩步稀釋。

For investors who had expected Ethereum to retain its value over time -- as misguided of an expectation as that may have been -- this new risk is doubtlessly quite alarming.

對於那些期望以太坊隨著時間的推移保留其價值的投資者而言，這種新風險無疑是令人震驚的。

Don't sweat too much about this just yet

不要為此汗水太多

Let's put the risk in context. Right now, Ethereum's supply is expected to grow by about 0.7% annually. Meanwhile, its total supply only rose by 9% during the past five years.

讓我們在上下文中冒險。目前，以太坊的供應預計每年增長約0.7％。同時，在過去五年中，其總供應量僅增長了9％。

That means that supply growth is not a reason to sell your coins. Nor is it a reason for panic. The Ethereum protocol could be adjusted to be net-neutral or even slightly deflationary given gas fees that are the same or even lower than they are now. That would likely further drive down the rewards for staking, discouraging some investors from parking capital on the chain, but it would at least protect the value of the coin over time. There is also a chance that volume could increase on the network in a durable fashion if sentiment improves, which would result in a higher burn rate and a reduction of the already fairly low supply growth rate. So there are at least a couple of ways this risk could be defused entirely.

這意味著供應增長不是出售硬幣的原因。這也不是恐慌的原因。可以將以太坊協議調整為淨中性或什至稍微放置，因為氣體費用相同甚至低於現在。這很可能會進一步推動獎勵，以使某些投資者從鏈條上的停車資本中勸阻，但它至少會隨著時間的推移而保護硬幣的價值。如果情緒改善，也有可能以持久的方式在網絡上增加數量，這將導致較高的燃燒率和已經相當低的供應增長率的降低。因此，至少有幾種方式可以完全抗拒這種風險。

There are also a couple of ways that the supply growth could escalate into a real problem that would warrant selling your holdings. Those would likely require strategic mistakes by the chain's developers (such as orienting tech development in a direction that doesn't result in a better ability to compete in growth segments) or for capital devoted to staking to flee to another chain. Neither of those two things is destined to occur, but the chance of at least one of them happening at some point is moderate, and it's important to recognize that a bad strategic move would likely spur capital flight.

供應增長也可以通過幾種方式升級為一個真正的問題，需要出售您的股份。這些可能需要鏈的開發人員的戰略性錯誤（例如，朝著技術開發方向發展，這不會導致更好的能力在增長領域競爭）或投資專門用於逃脫的資本逃離另一個連鎖店。這兩件事都沒有註定要發生，但是在某個時候，其中至少有一個發生的機會是溫和的，重要的是要認識到，糟糕的戰略舉動可能會刺激資本飛行。

In short, this is an issue worth keeping an eye on even if it isn't extremely threatening today. The longer you plan on holding Ethereum, the more you should care about whether it's trending toward a higher inflation rate or not.

簡而言之，這是一個值得關注的問題，即使今天的威脅並沒有極大威脅。您計劃持有以太坊的時間越長，您應該越關心它是否朝著更高的通貨膨脹率趨勢。