比特幣：銷售壓力和長期積累信號看漲，前往2025年秋季

隨著比特幣繼續在最近的高點附近進行貿易，鏈上指標正在為未來的幾個月謹慎樂觀。

Bitcoin has recently traded near its new all-time highs, and on-chain indicators are now beginning to paint a cautiously optimistic picture for what may lie ahead in the months to come.

比特幣最近在其歷史新高的新高點附近交易，鏈上的指標現在開始為未來幾個月的未來而謹慎樂觀。

At least according to independent on-chain analyst Maizi Adler, two key metrics-MVRV-Z and Long-Term Holder (LTH) accumulation-suggest that the current cycle may still have significant upside potential.

至少根據獨立的鏈分析師Maizi Adler的說法，兩個關鍵的指標-MVRV-Z和長期持有人（LTH）積累 - 目前週期可能仍然具有巨大的上行潛力。

MVRV-Z Indicator

MVRV-Z指示器

Adler notes that selling pressure remains unusually muted, with the MVRV-Z score still far from its historic peak levels. This metric, which compares market value to realized value, typically spikes during cycle tops. However, current readings imply that a cycle peak may not materialize until fall 2025, giving investors time to ride the momentum without major disruptions-assuming no Black Swan event derails the trend.

阿德勒（Adler）指出，銷售壓力仍然異常變形，MVRV-Z得分遠離其歷史峰值水平遠遠不足。該指標將市場價值與已實現價值進行比較，通常在周期頂部峰值。但是，目前的讀數暗示，週期峰可能要等到2025年秋季才能實現，這使投資者有時間在沒有重大干擾的情況下騎行勢頭，這可能會使No Black Swan事件脫軌。

The accompanying chart highlights a gradual rise toward upper pricing bands, with Bitcoin still trading well below the +3 to +4 standard deviation lines that have historically marked macro tops. This could indicate more room for price appreciation in the coming months.

隨附的圖表突出了逐漸朝上定價帶的逐漸上升，比特幣仍然遠低於+3至+4標準偏差線，歷史上標記了宏觀上衣。這可能表明在接下來的幾個月中，更大的價格升值餘地。

Image: Maizi Adler/X

圖片：Maizi Adler/X

Long-Term Holders

長期持有人

Another critical on-chain trend is emerging: Long-Term Holders (LTHs) have resumed accumulation in a big way. Since April 4, 2025, LTHs have added 339,000 BTC, pushing their total holdings to over 14.37 million BTC. This level of accumulation, marked by a return to green on the LTH net position change chart, typically reflects rising conviction among seasoned investors-and often precedes bullish price moves.

另一個關鍵的鏈上趨勢是新興：長期持有人（LTHS）大大恢復了積累。自2025年4月4日以來，LTHS增加了339,000 BTC，將其總持股量提高到1437萬BTC。這種積累水平的標誌是在LTH淨位置變化圖上重返綠色，通常反映了經驗豐富的投資者的信念上升，並且通常是看漲的價格轉移。

Given that LTHs tend to sell into strength during euphoric tops, their current buying behavior suggests we’re still in the mid-stages of the cycle, rather than near the end.

鑑於LTH傾向於在欣快感的頂部銷售力量，因此他們目前的購買行為表明我們仍處於週期的中期，而不是接近末端。

READ MORE: Anthony Scaramucci Shares Bold Bitcoin Prediction and ETF Outlook

閱讀更多：Anthony Scaramucci分享大膽的比特幣預測和ETF Outlook

Calm Before The Surge?

在激增前冷靜嗎？

With LTHs accumulating and MVRV-Z still far from historical extremes, the data aligns with a bull market continuation thesis-but one tempered by caution.

隨著LTH的積累和MVRV-Z遠離歷史極端，數據與牛市繼續論文保持一致，但謹慎地糾正了一個。

Adler concludes with hope that no sudden Black Swan events disrupt the current trend, allowing time for a final wave of buyer momentum to play out through the rest of 2025.

阿德勒（Adler）希望沒有突然的黑天鵝事件破壞當前的趨勢，從而使最終的買家動力在2025年的其餘時間裡發揮了作用。