Bitcoin: Muted Selling Pressure and Long-Term Accumulation Signal Bullish Momentum into Fall 2025

As Bitcoin continues to trade near its recent highs, on-chain indicators are painting a cautiously optimistic picture for the months ahead.

Bitcoin has recently traded near its new all-time highs, and on-chain indicators are now beginning to paint a cautiously optimistic picture for what may lie ahead in the months to come.

At least according to independent on-chain analyst Maizi Adler, two key metrics-MVRV-Z and Long-Term Holder (LTH) accumulation-suggest that the current cycle may still have significant upside potential.

MVRV-Z Indicator

Adler notes that selling pressure remains unusually muted, with the MVRV-Z score still far from its historic peak levels. This metric, which compares market value to realized value, typically spikes during cycle tops. However, current readings imply that a cycle peak may not materialize until fall 2025, giving investors time to ride the momentum without major disruptions-assuming no Black Swan event derails the trend.

The accompanying chart highlights a gradual rise toward upper pricing bands, with Bitcoin still trading well below the +3 to +4 standard deviation lines that have historically marked macro tops. This could indicate more room for price appreciation in the coming months.

Image: Maizi Adler/X

Long-Term Holders

Another critical on-chain trend is emerging: Long-Term Holders (LTHs) have resumed accumulation in a big way. Since April 4, 2025, LTHs have added 339,000 BTC, pushing their total holdings to over 14.37 million BTC. This level of accumulation, marked by a return to green on the LTH net position change chart, typically reflects rising conviction among seasoned investors-and often precedes bullish price moves.

Given that LTHs tend to sell into strength during euphoric tops, their current buying behavior suggests we’re still in the mid-stages of the cycle, rather than near the end.

READ MORE: Anthony Scaramucci Shares Bold Bitcoin Prediction and ETF Outlook

Calm Before The Surge?

With LTHs accumulating and MVRV-Z still far from historical extremes, the data aligns with a bull market continuation thesis-but one tempered by caution.

Adler concludes with hope that no sudden Black Swan events disrupt the current trend, allowing time for a final wave of buyer momentum to play out through the rest of 2025.