比特币：销售压力和长期积累信号看涨，前往2025年秋季

随着比特币继续在最近的高点附近进行贸易，链上指标正在为未来的几个月谨慎乐观。

Bitcoin has recently traded near its new all-time highs, and on-chain indicators are now beginning to paint a cautiously optimistic picture for what may lie ahead in the months to come.

比特币最近在其历史新高的新高点附近交易，链上的指标现在开始为未来几个月的未来而谨慎乐观。

At least according to independent on-chain analyst Maizi Adler, two key metrics-MVRV-Z and Long-Term Holder (LTH) accumulation-suggest that the current cycle may still have significant upside potential.

至少根据独立的链分析师Maizi Adler的说法，两个关键的指标-MVRV-Z和长期持有人（LTH）积累 - 目前周期可能仍然具有巨大的上行潜力。

MVRV-Z Indicator

MVRV-Z指示器

Adler notes that selling pressure remains unusually muted, with the MVRV-Z score still far from its historic peak levels. This metric, which compares market value to realized value, typically spikes during cycle tops. However, current readings imply that a cycle peak may not materialize until fall 2025, giving investors time to ride the momentum without major disruptions-assuming no Black Swan event derails the trend.

阿德勒（Adler）指出，销售压力仍然异常变形，MVRV-Z得分远离其历史峰值水平远远不足。该指标将市场价值与已实现价值进行比较，通常在周期顶部峰值。但是，目前的读数暗示，周期峰可能要等到2025年秋季才能实现，这使投资者有时间在没有重大干扰的情况下骑行势头，这可能会使No Black Swan事件脱轨。

The accompanying chart highlights a gradual rise toward upper pricing bands, with Bitcoin still trading well below the +3 to +4 standard deviation lines that have historically marked macro tops. This could indicate more room for price appreciation in the coming months.

随附的图表突出了逐渐朝上定价带的逐渐上升，比特币仍然远低于+3至+4标准偏差线，历史上标记了宏观上衣。这可能表明在接下来的几个月中，更大的价格升值余地。

Image: Maizi Adler/X

图片：Maizi Adler/X

Long-Term Holders

长期持有人

Another critical on-chain trend is emerging: Long-Term Holders (LTHs) have resumed accumulation in a big way. Since April 4, 2025, LTHs have added 339,000 BTC, pushing their total holdings to over 14.37 million BTC. This level of accumulation, marked by a return to green on the LTH net position change chart, typically reflects rising conviction among seasoned investors-and often precedes bullish price moves.

另一个关键的链上趋势是新兴：长期持有人（LTHS）大大恢复了积累。自2025年4月4日以来，LTHS增加了339,000 BTC，将其总持股量提高到1437万BTC。这种积累水平的标志是在LTH净位置变化图上重返绿色，通常反映了经验丰富的投资者的信念上升，并且通常是看涨的价格转移。

Given that LTHs tend to sell into strength during euphoric tops, their current buying behavior suggests we’re still in the mid-stages of the cycle, rather than near the end.

鉴于LTH倾向于在欣快感的顶部销售力量，因此他们目前的购买行为表明我们仍处于周期的中期，而不是接近末端。

READ MORE: Anthony Scaramucci Shares Bold Bitcoin Prediction and ETF Outlook

阅读更多：Anthony Scaramucci分享大胆的比特币预测和ETF Outlook

Calm Before The Surge?

在激增前冷静吗？

With LTHs accumulating and MVRV-Z still far from historical extremes, the data aligns with a bull market continuation thesis-but one tempered by caution.

随着LTH的积累和MVRV-Z远离历史极端，数据与牛市继续论文保持一致，但谨慎地纠正了一个。

Adler concludes with hope that no sudden Black Swan events disrupt the current trend, allowing time for a final wave of buyer momentum to play out through the rest of 2025.

阿德勒（Adler）希望没有突然的黑天鹅事件破坏当前的趋势，从而使最终的买家动力在2025年的其余时间里发挥了作用。