Coinbase Global（Coin）於5月8日發布了其第一季度收益報告

這是Morningstar對Coinbase的收益和股票的看法。

Coinbase Global (COIN) released its first-quarter earnings report on May 8. Here’s Morningstar’s take on Coinbase’s earnings and stock.

Coinbase Global（Coin）於5月8日發布了其第一季度的收益報告。在這裡，Morningstar對Coinbase的收益和股票的看法。

Key Morningstar Metrics for Coinbase Global

Coinbase Global的關鍵晨星指標

What We Thought of Coinbase Global’s Earnings

我們對Coinbase Global的收入的看法

Coinbase reported sequentially weaker first-quarter earnings as falling cryptocurrency prices during the quarter led to less trading and cryptocurrency asset losses. Net revenue decreased 11% from last quarter, though rose 24% from last year, to $1.96 billion.

Coinbase報告說，由於該季度的加密貨幣價格下跌導致貿易和加密貨幣資產損失減少，因此第一季度的收入依次弱。淨收入比上個季度下降了11％，儘管從去年增長了24％，達到了19.6億美元。

Why it matters: While Coinbase’s first-quarter revenue was solid, its net income fell to $65.6 million, or $526.6 million adjusted for cryptocurrency investment losses, from $1.18 billion last year.

為什麼重要的是：儘管Coinbase的第一季度收入是可觀的，但其淨收入降至6560萬美元，或針對加密貨幣投資損失調整的5.266億美元，從去年的11.8億美元開始。

The bottom line: We will maintain our $170 fair value estimate for no-moat-rated Coinbase. We see the shares as modestly overvalued following their strong recovery from April lows.

最重要的是：我們將維持NoMoat評級共同基礎的170美元公允價值估算。我們認為，在四月低點的強勁恢復後，股票被高估了。

Coming up: Earlier in the day Coinbase announced that it intends to buy Deribit, a cryptocurrency derivative exchange, for $700 million in cash and 11 million shares, or roughly $2.9 billion in combined value.

來臨：當天早些時候，Coinbase宣布，打算以7億美元的現金和1100萬股的價格購買deribit，一種加密貨幣衍生品交易所，約合29億美元的合併價值。

Coinbase Global Stock Price

共同股份全球股票價格

Fair Value Estimate for Coinbase Global

Coinbase Global的公允價值估計

With its 2-star rating, we believe Coinbase stock is overvalued compared with our long-term fair value estimate of $170 per share, an increase from $150, which translates to 19 times our 2025 earnings projection. Around $2 of the increase comes from earnings since our last update. Another $10 comes from higher stable coin revenue projections. USD Coin's market capitalization increased rapidly in the final months of 2024 and, so far, in 2025. Coinbase's stable coin revenue comes from interest on the collateral behind USDC, meaning that rising market capitalization feeds directly into the firm's top line. The rest of the increase comes from higher trading revenue expectations as we adjust our model to reflect the recent rally in cryptocurrency prices.

憑藉其2星級評級，我們認為Coinbase股票與我們的長期公允價值估算值相比，每股170美元，比150美元增加，這是我們2025年的收益預測的19倍。自上次更新以來的收入約為2美元。另外10美元來自較高穩定的硬幣收入預測。美元硬幣的市值在2024年的最後幾個月，到目前為止，在2025年。 Coinbase的穩定硬幣收入來自USDC背後的抵押品的利息，這意味著市場資本化將直接提高到該公司的最高產品線上。隨著我們調整模型以反映加密貨幣價格的最新集會，其餘的增加來自更高的交易收入預期。

Our fair value estimate depends heavily on trading volume assumptions, the rate at which we expect Coinbase's trading fees to compress over time, and interest income projections from Coinbase's partnership with Circle for the stable coin USDC.

我們的公允價值估計在很大程度上取決於交易量假設，這是我們期望Coinbase的交易費用以隨著時間的推移壓縮的費率，以及Coinbase與Circle的合作夥伴關係的利息收入預測，用於穩定的Coin USDC。

Read more about Coinbase Global‘s fair value estimate.

閱讀有關Coinbase Global的公允價值估算的更多信息。

Economic Moat Rating

經濟護城河評級

In our view, Coinbase does not have an economic moat despite being the leading cryptocurrency exchange in the United States. Coinbase has been able to carve out a strong place in the cryptocurrency exchange industry by intentionally positioning itself as a reliable and regulation-compliant place to buy and sell cryptocurrency in an industry filled with risk, weak security practices, and spotty regulatory enforcement. This has allowed the company to successfully charge fees higher than many of its peers while building a large pool of liquidity on its platform. The company’s reputational advantages have only grown in recent years, following the collapse of one of its largest rivals, FTX, due to financial fraud. While we do expect fee compression to occur in the long term, recent events will likely allow Coinbase to continue to charge a premium in the immediate future.

我們認為，儘管是美國的主要加密貨幣交流，但Coinbase沒有經濟護城河。 Coinbase能夠通過將自己定位為一個可靠且符合法規的符合法規的地點，在充滿風險，疲軟的安全慣例和少地監管執法的行業中，可以將自己定位為一個可靠且符合法規的加密貨幣，從而在加密貨幣交換行業中佔據了很大的地位。這使該公司可以成功收取高於其許多同行的費用，同時在其平台上建立大量的流動性。由於財務欺詐，該公司最大的競爭對手之一FTX崩潰後，該公司的聲譽優勢僅在近年來增長。儘管我們確實期望從長遠來看費用壓縮，但最近的事件可能會使Coinbase在不久的將來繼續收取溢價。

However, Coinbase relies on the growth and success of bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies to generate returns on its invested capital. Cryptocurrency is still highly speculative, and its long-term success and viability is by no means guaranteed. Coinbase has built a strong competitive position, but there is too much potential for its returns on invested capital to rapidly evaporate for us to award the company a moat.

但是，Coinbase依靠比特幣，以太坊和其他加密貨幣的增長和成功來產生其投資資本的回報。加密貨幣仍然是高度投機性的，它的長期成功和生存能力絕不能保證。 Coinbase建立了強大的競爭地位，但是它的投資資本回報率太多了，無法迅速蒸發為我們授予該公司的護城河。

Read more about Coinbase Global‘s economic moat.

閱讀有關Coinbase Global的經濟護城河的更多信息。

Financial Strength

財務實力

Coinbase is in a strong financial position, though it needs to be, as the firm’s heavy exposure to cryptocurrency prices and volatility can lead to sharp swings in revenue and profitability. The company ended December 2024 with more than $8.5 billion in cash and almost $2.8 billion in cryptocurrency investments, which include more than $1.2 billion in USDC, a cryptocurrency pegged to the US dollar. These assets are held against $4.2 billion in debt.

Coinbase處於強大的財務狀況，儘管需要是強大的，因為該公司大量接觸加密貨幣價格和波動性可能會導致收入和盈利能力的急劇波動。該公司於2024年12月結束，現金超過85億美元和近28億美元的加密貨幣投資，其中包括超過12億美元的USDC，這是一個固定在美元的加密貨幣。這些資產持有42億美元的債務。

The decision to keep strong cash reserves makes sense, given how volatile the company’s revenue generation can be, and it gives Coinbase room to maneuver during prolonged weak cryptocurrency markets. We think staying relatively unleveraged will be an important step in keeping the company financially secure in the long term through market cycles.

考慮到公司的收入產生的動盪，保留強大的現金儲備的決定是有道理的，並且在長期弱的加密貨幣市場期間為COINBASE提供了機動的空間。我們認為，保持相對尚未掌握將是通過市場週期長期確保公司在財務上確保公司的重要一步。

Read more about Coinbase Global‘s financial strength.

閱讀有關Coinbase Global財務實力的更多信息。

Risk and Uncertainty

風險和不確定性

We give Coinbase a Morningstar Uncertainty Rating of Very High. Coinbase gets more than half of its net revenue from trading fees at its exchange business. Fees are charged as a percentage of the underlying assets being traded, creating direct exposure to cryptocurrency prices. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and deeply cyclical. In 2022, Coinbase's revenue fell more than 59% from the prior year as cryptocurrency prices collapsed. The number of active traders on Coinbase's platform

我們給Coinbase一個非常高的晨星不確定性評級。 Coinbase從交易業務的交易費用中獲得了其淨收入的一半以上。費用被收取為交易基礎資產的百分比，從而直接接觸加密貨幣價格。加密貨幣市場高度波動且深度週期性。 2022年，隨著加密貨幣價格崩潰，Coinbase的收入比上一年下降了59％以上。 Coinbase平台上的活躍交易者數量