Coinbase Global（Coin）于5月8日发布了其第一季度收益报告

这是Morningstar对Coinbase的收益和股票的看法。

Coinbase Global (COIN) released its first-quarter earnings report on May 8. Here’s Morningstar’s take on Coinbase’s earnings and stock.

Coinbase Global（Coin）于5月8日发布了其第一季度的收益报告。在这里，Morningstar对Coinbase的收益和股票的看法。

Key Morningstar Metrics for Coinbase Global

Coinbase Global的关键晨星指标

What We Thought of Coinbase Global’s Earnings

我们对Coinbase Global的收入的看法

Coinbase reported sequentially weaker first-quarter earnings as falling cryptocurrency prices during the quarter led to less trading and cryptocurrency asset losses. Net revenue decreased 11% from last quarter, though rose 24% from last year, to $1.96 billion.

Coinbase报告说，由于该季度的加密货币价格下跌导致贸易和加密货币资产损失减少，因此第一季度的收入依次弱。净收入比上个季度下降了11％，尽管从去年增长了24％，达到了19.6亿美元。

Why it matters: While Coinbase’s first-quarter revenue was solid, its net income fell to $65.6 million, or $526.6 million adjusted for cryptocurrency investment losses, from $1.18 billion last year.

为什么重要的是：尽管Coinbase的第一季度收入是可观的，但其净收入降至6560万美元，或针对加密货币投资损失调整的5.266亿美元，从去年的11.8亿美元开始。

The bottom line: We will maintain our $170 fair value estimate for no-moat-rated Coinbase. We see the shares as modestly overvalued following their strong recovery from April lows.

最重要的是：我们将维持NoMoat评级共同基础的170美元公允价值估算。我们认为，在四月低点的强劲恢复后，股票被高估了。

Coming up: Earlier in the day Coinbase announced that it intends to buy Deribit, a cryptocurrency derivative exchange, for $700 million in cash and 11 million shares, or roughly $2.9 billion in combined value.

来临：当天早些时候，Coinbase宣布，打算以7亿美元的现金和1100万股的价格购买deribit，一种加密货币衍生品交易所，约合29亿美元的合并价值。

Coinbase Global Stock Price

共同股份全球股票价格

Fair Value Estimate for Coinbase Global

Coinbase Global的公允价值估计

With its 2-star rating, we believe Coinbase stock is overvalued compared with our long-term fair value estimate of $170 per share, an increase from $150, which translates to 19 times our 2025 earnings projection. Around $2 of the increase comes from earnings since our last update. Another $10 comes from higher stable coin revenue projections. USD Coin's market capitalization increased rapidly in the final months of 2024 and, so far, in 2025. Coinbase's stable coin revenue comes from interest on the collateral behind USDC, meaning that rising market capitalization feeds directly into the firm's top line. The rest of the increase comes from higher trading revenue expectations as we adjust our model to reflect the recent rally in cryptocurrency prices.

凭借其2星级评级，我们认为Coinbase股票与我们的长期公允价值估算值相比，每股170美元，比150美元增加，这是我们2025年的收益预测的19倍。自上次更新以来的收入约为2美元。另外10美元来自较高稳定的硬币收入预测。美元硬币的市值在2024年的最后几个月，到目前为止，在2025年。Coinbase的稳定硬币收入来自USDC背后的抵押品的利息，这意味着市场资本化将直接提高到该公司的最高产品线上。随着我们调整模型以反映加密货币价格的最新集会，其余的增加来自更高的交易收入预期。

Our fair value estimate depends heavily on trading volume assumptions, the rate at which we expect Coinbase's trading fees to compress over time, and interest income projections from Coinbase's partnership with Circle for the stable coin USDC.

我们的公允价值估计在很大程度上取决于交易量假设，这是我们期望Coinbase的交易费用以随着时间的推移压缩的费率，以及Coinbase与Circle的合作伙伴关系的利息收入预测，用于稳定的Coin USDC。

Read more about Coinbase Global‘s fair value estimate.

阅读有关Coinbase Global的公允价值估算的更多信息。

Economic Moat Rating

经济护城河评级

In our view, Coinbase does not have an economic moat despite being the leading cryptocurrency exchange in the United States. Coinbase has been able to carve out a strong place in the cryptocurrency exchange industry by intentionally positioning itself as a reliable and regulation-compliant place to buy and sell cryptocurrency in an industry filled with risk, weak security practices, and spotty regulatory enforcement. This has allowed the company to successfully charge fees higher than many of its peers while building a large pool of liquidity on its platform. The company’s reputational advantages have only grown in recent years, following the collapse of one of its largest rivals, FTX, due to financial fraud. While we do expect fee compression to occur in the long term, recent events will likely allow Coinbase to continue to charge a premium in the immediate future.

我们认为，尽管是美国的主要加密货币交流，但Coinbase没有经济护城河。 Coinbase能够通过将自己定位为一个可靠且符合法规的符合法规的地点，在充满风险，疲软的安全惯例和少地监管执法的行业中，可以将自己定位为一个可靠且符合法规的加密货币，从而在加密货币交换行业中占据了很大的地位。这使该公司可以成功收取高于其许多同行的费用，同时在其平台上建立大量的流动性。由于财务欺诈，该公司最大的竞争对手之一FTX崩溃后，该公司的声誉优势仅在近年来增长。尽管我们确实期望从长远来看费用压缩，但最近的事件可能会使Coinbase在不久的将来继续收取溢价。

However, Coinbase relies on the growth and success of bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies to generate returns on its invested capital. Cryptocurrency is still highly speculative, and its long-term success and viability is by no means guaranteed. Coinbase has built a strong competitive position, but there is too much potential for its returns on invested capital to rapidly evaporate for us to award the company a moat.

但是，Coinbase依靠比特币，以太坊和其他加密货币的增长和成功来产生其投资资本的回报。加密货币仍然是高度投机性的，它的长期成功和生存能力绝不能保证。 Coinbase建立了强大的竞争地位，但是它的投资资本回报率太多了，无法迅速蒸发为我们授予该公司的护城河。

Read more about Coinbase Global‘s economic moat.

阅读有关Coinbase Global的经济护城河的更多信息。

Financial Strength

财务实力

Coinbase is in a strong financial position, though it needs to be, as the firm’s heavy exposure to cryptocurrency prices and volatility can lead to sharp swings in revenue and profitability. The company ended December 2024 with more than $8.5 billion in cash and almost $2.8 billion in cryptocurrency investments, which include more than $1.2 billion in USDC, a cryptocurrency pegged to the US dollar. These assets are held against $4.2 billion in debt.

Coinbase处于强大的财务状况，尽管需要是强大的，因为该公司大量接触加密货币价格和波动性可能会导致收入和盈利能力的急剧波动。该公司于2024年12月结束，现金超过85亿美元和近28亿美元的加密货币投资，其中包括超过12亿美元的USDC，这是一个固定在美元的加密货币。这些资产持有42亿美元的债务。

The decision to keep strong cash reserves makes sense, given how volatile the company’s revenue generation can be, and it gives Coinbase room to maneuver during prolonged weak cryptocurrency markets. We think staying relatively unleveraged will be an important step in keeping the company financially secure in the long term through market cycles.

考虑到公司的收入产生的动荡，保留强大的现金储备的决定是有道理的，并且在长期弱的加密货币市场期间为COINBASE提供了机动的空间。我们认为，保持相对尚未掌握将是通过市场周期长期确保公司在财务上确保公司的重要一步。

Read more about Coinbase Global‘s financial strength.

阅读有关Coinbase Global财务实力的更多信息。

Risk and Uncertainty

风险和不确定性

We give Coinbase a Morningstar Uncertainty Rating of Very High. Coinbase gets more than half of its net revenue from trading fees at its exchange business. Fees are charged as a percentage of the underlying assets being traded, creating direct exposure to cryptocurrency prices. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and deeply cyclical. In 2022, Coinbase's revenue fell more than 59% from the prior year as cryptocurrency prices collapsed. The number of active traders on Coinbase's platform

我们给Coinbase一个非常高的晨星不确定性评级。 Coinbase从交易业务的交易费用中获得了其净收入的一半以上。费用被收取为交易基础资产的百分比，从而直接接触加密货币价格。加密货币市场高度波动且深度周期性。 2022年，随着加密货币价格崩溃，Coinbase的收入比上一年下降了59％以上。 Coinbase平台上的活跃交易者数量