比特幣（BTC）價格動作看起來與2021週期高度相似，顯示了許多警告信號

比特幣（BTC）在四年內發生了很大的變化，與諸如FTX這樣的陰暗集中實體和機構投資者中的平台Du Jour脫穎而出。

Bitcoin (BTC) has undergone a remarkable transformation in four years, distancing itself from the shadows of FTX and emerging as the plat du jour among institutional investors.

比特幣（BTC）在四年內經歷了一個顯著的轉變，與FTX的陰影相距甚遠，並成為機構投資者中的平台。

However, this month’s drive back into six-figures amid cooling tariff tensions is presenting a number of warning signs that appear eerily similar to the 2021 cycle high.

但是，在冷卻關稅緊張局勢的情況下，本月的驅動器重新恢復了六位數，這些警告信號與2021年周期高度相似。

In 2021, bitcoin made an historic record high in April of $65,000, coinciding with a flurry of activity from Michael Saylor’s (then-named) MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) and the IPO of Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN). The excitement was capitalized on by shrewd traders, who shorted the 'big news' and rode BTC down to an eventual bottom at $28,000 just two months later.

2021年，比特幣在4月的65,000美元中創造了歷史悠久的紀錄，與邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）（當時為nasdaq：MSTR）和Coinbase（Nasdaq：Coin）的IPO的一系列活動相吻合。這一興奮是由精明的商人大寫的，他在兩個月後將“大新聞”縮短了“大新聞”，並將BTC最終降至最終的底部28,000美元。

Then, as the entire industry began preparing for a sustained bear market or even the end of bitcoin (remember the Chinese mining ban), BTC turned tail and began a rally that didn't stop for four months. This relentless surge to the upside resulted in a new record high of $69,000, despite all on-chain metrics pointing towards a bearish outcome.

然後，隨著整個行業開始為持續的熊市甚至比特幣的結束做準備（記住中國採礦禁令），BTC轉過身，開始了一次集會，該集會在四個月內沒有停止。儘管所有鏈界的指標都指向看跌的結果，但這種無情的激增導致了69,000美元的新創紀錄。

Ominously, the current price action this time around is being accompanied by those same on-chain metrics telling a similar story about a potential double top.

不祥的是，這次目前的價格動作伴隨著那些相同的鏈指標，講述了一個有關潛在雙層頂部的類似故事。

A deeper dive

更深入的潛水

The first of those metrics is weekly RSI, which is exhibiting three strikes of bearish divergence from March 2024, December 2024 and May 2025. RSI is an indicator that compares averages gains with average losses over a set period to gauge potentially overbought or oversold conditions. Bearish divergence is where RSI is trending to the downside whilst price is trending to the upside.

這些指標中的第一個是每週的RSI，該指標從2024年3月，2024年12月和2025年5月表現出三次看跌差異。 RSI是一個指標，將平均值與平均損失的平均損失進行比較，以衡量潛在的過度或過度銷售條件。看跌差異是RSI在價格上漲時趨向下行趨勢的地方。

This, coupled with trading volumes that are lower compared to the initial move above $100K, suggests that the momentum of this swing higher is dwindling. Volumes are down across both crypto and institutional venues, with volume on CME BTC futures failing to surpass 35,000 contracts during three of the previous four weeks. The initial move saw volumes regularly exceed 65,000 contracts, hitting more than 85,000 on three occasions. One contract on the CME is worth 5 bitcoin ($514,000).

與初始移動相比，這與超過$ 10萬美元相比，交易量較低，這表明這種搖擺的動力越來越大。在加密貨幣和機構場所中，CME BTC期貨的數量均未達到35,000個合同，在過去的四個星期中的三個星期中，CME BTC期貨的數量均下降。最初的舉動量定期超過65,000份合同，三次達到了85,000多次。 CME上的一份合同價值5比特幣（514,000美元）。

Like in 2021, open interest is also diverging from price action, currently 13% lower than the initial drive to $109K in January while price is just 5.8% lower. Four years ago when bitcoin hit $69,000, open interest was 15.6% lower than the initial $65,000 high despite the price being 6.6% higher.

像2021年一樣，開放利息也與價格行動有所不同，目前比最初的開車低13％，至一月份的$ 109K，而價格僅低5.8％。四年前，當比特幣達到69,000美元時，開放利息比最初的65,000美元高15.6％，儘管價格高出6.6％。

What does this mean?

這是什麼意思？

The similarities with 2021 are clear but it’s worth noting that the crypto market structure is entirely different than four years ago. Mostly thanks to Saylor and a growing number of corporate copycats ramping up BTC acquisitions at any cost, the presence of institutional interest is far higher in this cycle. There is also the element of spot bitcoin ETFs, which allows intuitional investors and companies to acquire BTC in a traditional regulated venue.

與2021年的相似之處很明顯，但值得注意的是，加密貨幣市場結構與四年前完全不同。主要感謝Saylor和越來越多的公司模仿者以不惜一切代價加速BTC的收購，在此週期中，機構利益的存在要高得多。還有點比特幣ETF的元素，它允許直覺投資者和公司在傳統的受監管場地中獲取BTC。

As learned in 2021, on-chain metrics can be an inaccurate measure of forecasting price action. It is feasible that BTC breaks a new record high after Trump inevitably reveals details of a U.S. bitcoin treasury, but that could also become a "sell the news event," in which traders attempt to capitalize on emotional buying from uniformed retail investors.

正如2021年所學到的那樣，鏈上指標可能是對預測價格行動的不准確度量。在特朗普不可避免地揭示了美國比特幣財政部的細節之後，BTC打破了新的記錄是可行的，但這也可能成為“賣出新聞事件”，在這種情況下，交易者試圖從統一的零售投資者那裡利用情感購買。

What the indicators do suggest is that whilst a new record high could be formed like in 2021, the momentum of this move is waning and analysts who are boldly calling for $150K or even $200K price targets could be in for a rude awakening once the sell-off truly begins. Bitcoin entered more than a one-year bear market at the end of 2021, resulting in substantial layoffs across the industry and the implosion of several trading firms, centralized lending companies and DeFi protocols.

指標表明的是，儘管可以像2021年一樣形成新的記錄，但此舉的勢頭是減弱和分析師，他們大膽地呼籲$ 150萬甚至20萬美元的價格目標，一旦售罄真正開始，可能會出現粗魯的喚醒。比特幣在2021年底進入了超過一年的熊市市場，導致整個行業的大量裁員以及多家貿易公司，集中式貸款公司和DEFI協議的內爆。

This time around, the market has several other elements to consider if prices begin to tumble. Notably, MSTR’s leveraged BTC position, the emerging BTC DeFi industry that has $6.3 billon in total value locked (TVL), and the billions of frothy dollars that slosh around the memecoin ecosystem, which is known to disproportionately contract during times of market pressure.

這次，市場還有其他幾個要素要考慮價格是否開始下跌。值得注意的是，MSTR的槓桿BTC位置，新興的BTC Defi行業的總價值鎖定為6.3美元（TVL），以及數十億美元的泡沫美元，在Memecoin Ecosystem周圍slosh，在市場壓力時期，該系統眾所周知，這是眾所周知的。