比特币（BTC）价格动作看起来与2021周期高度相似，显示了许多警告信号

比特币（BTC）在四年内发生了很大的变化，与诸如FTX这样的阴暗集中实体和机构投资者中的平台Du Jour脱颖而出。

Bitcoin (BTC) has undergone a remarkable transformation in four years, distancing itself from the shadows of FTX and emerging as the plat du jour among institutional investors.

比特币（BTC）在四年内经历了一个显着的转变，与FTX的阴影相距甚远，并成为机构投资者中的平台。

However, this month’s drive back into six-figures amid cooling tariff tensions is presenting a number of warning signs that appear eerily similar to the 2021 cycle high.

但是，在冷却关税紧张局势的情况下，本月的驱动器重新恢复了六位数，这些警告信号与2021年周期高度相似。

In 2021, bitcoin made an historic record high in April of $65,000, coinciding with a flurry of activity from Michael Saylor’s (then-named) MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) and the IPO of Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN). The excitement was capitalized on by shrewd traders, who shorted the 'big news' and rode BTC down to an eventual bottom at $28,000 just two months later.

2021年，比特币在4月的65,000美元中创造了历史悠久的纪录，与迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）（当时为nasdaq：MSTR）和Coinbase（Nasdaq：Coin）的IPO的一系列活动相吻合。这一兴奋是由精明的商人大写的，他在两个月后将“大新闻”缩短了“大新闻”，并将BTC最终降至最终的底部28,000美元。

Then, as the entire industry began preparing for a sustained bear market or even the end of bitcoin (remember the Chinese mining ban), BTC turned tail and began a rally that didn't stop for four months. This relentless surge to the upside resulted in a new record high of $69,000, despite all on-chain metrics pointing towards a bearish outcome.

然后，随着整个行业开始为持续的熊市甚至比特币的结束做准备（记住中国采矿禁令），BTC转过身，开始了一次集会，该集会在四个月内没有停止。尽管所有链界的指标都指向看跌的结果，但这种无情的激增导致了69,000美元的新创纪录。

Ominously, the current price action this time around is being accompanied by those same on-chain metrics telling a similar story about a potential double top.

不祥的是，这次目前的价格动作伴随着那些相同的链指标，讲述了一个有关潜在双层顶部的类似故事。

A deeper dive

更深入的潜水

The first of those metrics is weekly RSI, which is exhibiting three strikes of bearish divergence from March 2024, December 2024 and May 2025. RSI is an indicator that compares averages gains with average losses over a set period to gauge potentially overbought or oversold conditions. Bearish divergence is where RSI is trending to the downside whilst price is trending to the upside.

这些指标中的第一个是每周的RSI，该指标从2024年3月，2024年12月和2025年5月表现出三次看跌差异。RSI是一个指标，将平均值与平均损失的平均损失进行比较，以衡量潜在的过度或过度销售条件。看跌差异是RSI在价格上涨时趋向下行趋势的地方。

This, coupled with trading volumes that are lower compared to the initial move above $100K, suggests that the momentum of this swing higher is dwindling. Volumes are down across both crypto and institutional venues, with volume on CME BTC futures failing to surpass 35,000 contracts during three of the previous four weeks. The initial move saw volumes regularly exceed 65,000 contracts, hitting more than 85,000 on three occasions. One contract on the CME is worth 5 bitcoin ($514,000).

与初始移动相比，这与超过$ 10万美元相比，交易量较低，这表明这种摇摆的动力越来越大。在加密货币和机构场所中，CME BTC期货的数量均未达到35,000个合同，在过去的四个星期中的三个星期中，CME BTC期货的数量均下降。最初的举动量定期超过65,000份合同，三次达到了85,000多次。 CME上的一份合同价值5比特币（514,000美元）。

Like in 2021, open interest is also diverging from price action, currently 13% lower than the initial drive to $109K in January while price is just 5.8% lower. Four years ago when bitcoin hit $69,000, open interest was 15.6% lower than the initial $65,000 high despite the price being 6.6% higher.

像2021年一样，开放利息也与价格行动有所不同，目前比最初的开车低13％，至一月份的$ 109K，而价格仅低5.8％。四年前，当比特币达到69,000美元时，开放利息比最初的65,000美元高15.6％，尽管价格高出6.6％。

What does this mean?

这是什么意思？

The similarities with 2021 are clear but it’s worth noting that the crypto market structure is entirely different than four years ago. Mostly thanks to Saylor and a growing number of corporate copycats ramping up BTC acquisitions at any cost, the presence of institutional interest is far higher in this cycle. There is also the element of spot bitcoin ETFs, which allows intuitional investors and companies to acquire BTC in a traditional regulated venue.

与2021年的相似之处很明显，但值得注意的是，加密货币市场结构与四年前完全不同。主要感谢Saylor和越来越多的公司模仿者以不惜一切代价加速BTC的收购，在此周期中，机构利益的存在要高得多。还有点比特币ETF的元素，它允许直觉投资者和公司在传统的受监管场地中获取BTC。

As learned in 2021, on-chain metrics can be an inaccurate measure of forecasting price action. It is feasible that BTC breaks a new record high after Trump inevitably reveals details of a U.S. bitcoin treasury, but that could also become a "sell the news event," in which traders attempt to capitalize on emotional buying from uniformed retail investors.

正如2021年所学到的那样，链上指标可能是对预测价格行动的不准确度量。在特朗普不可避免地揭示了美国比特币财政部的细节之后，BTC打破了新的记录是可行的，但这也可能成为“卖出新闻事件”，在这种情况下，交易者试图从统一的零售投资者那里利用情感购买。

What the indicators do suggest is that whilst a new record high could be formed like in 2021, the momentum of this move is waning and analysts who are boldly calling for $150K or even $200K price targets could be in for a rude awakening once the sell-off truly begins. Bitcoin entered more than a one-year bear market at the end of 2021, resulting in substantial layoffs across the industry and the implosion of several trading firms, centralized lending companies and DeFi protocols.

指标表明的是，尽管可以像2021年一样形成新的记录，但此举的势头是减弱和分析师，他们大胆地呼吁$ 150万甚至20万美元的价格目标，一旦售罄真正开始，可能会出现粗鲁的唤醒。比特币在2021年底进入了超过一年的熊市市场，导致整个行业的大量裁员以及多家贸易公司，集中式贷款公司和DEFI协议的内爆。

This time around, the market has several other elements to consider if prices begin to tumble. Notably, MSTR’s leveraged BTC position, the emerging BTC DeFi industry that has $6.3 billon in total value locked (TVL), and the billions of frothy dollars that slosh around the memecoin ecosystem, which is known to disproportionately contract during times of market pressure.

这次，市场还有其他几个要素要考虑价格是否开始下跌。值得注意的是，MSTR的杠杆BTC位置，新兴的BTC Defi行业的总价值锁定为6.3美元（TVL），以及数十亿美元的泡沫美元，在Memecoin Ecosystem周围slosh，在市场压力时期，该系统众所周知，这是众所周知的。