比特幣（BTC）的5個原因很快將設定新的歷史最高水平（ATH）

本文分析了支持比特幣可能達到新峰的預測的五個關鍵原因。

Bitcoin’s (BTC) climb above $100,000 has strengthened confidence in predictions that it will set a new all-time high (ATH) soon.

比特幣（BTC）攀升至100,000美元以上的攀登已經增強了人們對很快將創造新的歷史最高水平（ATH）的預測信心。

Based on on-chain data, accumulation trends, and market sentiment, there are several compelling reasons to believe Bitcoin may reach a new peak. This article analyzes five key metrics that support that prediction.

基於鏈上數據，積累趨勢和市場情緒，有幾個令人信服的理由相信比特幣可能會達到新的高峰。本文分析了支持該預測的五個關鍵指標。

5 Reasons Highlighting Bitcoin’s Potential to Reach a New ATH in May

五個原因強調了比特幣在5月到達新ATH的潛力

The first reason is the accumulation of whales during May. Data from Glassnode shows that wallets of all sizes are actively accumulating BTC. Glassnode’s “Trend Accumulation Score by Cohort” chart vividly displays this trend.

第一個原因是五月份鯨魚的積累。來自玻璃節的數據表明，各種大小的錢包都積極積累BTC。 GlassNode的“趨勢積累得分劃分為隊列”圖表生動地顯示了這一趨勢。

In early April, the brunt of the accumulation fell on large whale wallets holding over 10,000 BTC. But by May, the accumulation trend had cascaded to smaller wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. Meanwhile, wallets holding less than 100 BTC also showed increasing activity, reflected in the fading red colors on the chart throughout May.

4月初，積累的首當其衝落在擁有超過10,000 BTC的大鯨魚錢包上。但是到5月，累積趨勢已層疊在較小的錢包中，容納100至1,000 BTC。同時，持有少於100 BTC的錢包也顯示出活動的增加，反映在整個5月的圖表上的淡色。

Additionally, according to Santiment, in the past 30 days, whale wallets have accumulated another 83,105 BTC. This accumulation has helped flip the Spot Volume Delta into positive territory, giving Bitcoin momentum to push higher.

此外，根據Santiment的說法，在過去的30天中，鯨魚錢包又積累了83,105 BTC。這種積累有助於將斑點數量增長到積極的領域，從而使比特幣動量推動更高。

“The aggressive accumulation from these large wallets— it may be a matter of time until Bitcoin’s coveted $110,000 all-time high level is breached, particularly after the US & China tariff pause,” Santiment predicted.

Santiment預測：“這些大錢包中積極的積累 - 可能是時間問題，直到比特幣令人垂涎的110,000美元的歷史最高水平被破壞，尤其是在美國和中國關稅暫停之後。”

The second reason is that Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached a record high of 14 million BTC, which is worth over $1.4 billion.

第二個原因是比特幣的流動性供應量已達到創紀錄的1400萬BTC，價值超過14億美元。

The rise in illiquid supply indicates that long-term investors (HODLers) are holding tightly to their Bitcoin and have no intention of selling in the short term. Consequently, this reduces the circulating supply, and as demand rises, Bitcoin’s price can break out more easily.

流動性供應量的增加表明，長期投資者（Hodlers）緊緊抓住其比特幣，並且無意在短期內出售。因此，這減少了循環供應，並且隨著需求的上升，比特幣的價格更容易爆發。

The third reason comes from small investors. Although a new wave of retail investors has yet to emerge fully, according to CryptoQuant, retail trading volume on Binance—the world’s largest crypto exchange—has started to rebound after a period of decline.

第三個原因來自小型投資者。儘管零售投資者的新浪潮尚未充分出現，但經過一段時期的衰落，Binance（全球最大的加密貨幣交易所）的零售交易量（全球最大的加密交易所）開始反彈。

Additionally, Carmelo Alemán, an analyst at CryptoQuant, also observed that while retail volume hasn’t spiked yet, it has shown positive signs.

此外，CryptoQuant的分析師CarmeloAlemán還觀察到，儘管零售量還沒有飆升，但它顯示出正面的跡象。

“In the coming months, as retail participation increases, we can expect to see growth in Active Addresses, UTXO Count, and metrics like New Addresses and Transfer Volume, reflecting the sustained expansion of the crypto ecosystem,” Alemán predicted.

Alemán預測：“在接下來的幾個月中，隨著零售參與的增加，我們可以期望看到主動地址，UTXO計數以及新地址和轉移量等指標的增長，這反映了加密生態系統的持續擴展。”

The fourth reason analysts are closely watching is the correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the global M2 money supply.

分析師密切關注的第四個原因是比特幣價格與全球M2貨幣供應之間的相關性。

According to crypto expert Colin Talks Crypto, the growth in M2— a measure of the money supply from central banks like the Fed, ECB, and BoJ—has accurately predicted Bitcoin’s rise from $76,000 to $105,000 since April 8. Based on this trend, Colin forecasts Bitcoin could reach $120,000 in May.

根據加密專家Colin Talks Crypto的說法，M2的增長是對美聯儲，歐洲央行和Boj等中央銀行供應的衡量標準，已經準確地預測了比特幣從4月8日起從76,000美元上升到105,000美元。根據這一趨勢，基於這一趨勢，Colin Bitcoasts預測比特幣5月可能達到120,000美元。

“Bitcoin is still right on track with Global M2. $120,000+ by the end of May?” Colin said.

“比特幣仍與全球M2。到5月底到$ 120,000以上？”科林說。

This correlation isn’t new. Historically, Bitcoin tends to benefit and rise sharply when global liquidity increases. Given the current macroeconomic conditions, expanding the money supply may continue to fuel Bitcoin’s growth.

這種相關並不是什麼新鮮事。從歷史上看，當全球流動性增加時，比特幣往往會受益並急劇上升。鑑於當前的宏觀經濟狀況，擴大貨幣供應可能會繼續助長比特幣的增長。

Finally, prediction market Polymarket shows that the probability of Bitcoin reaching a new ATH in May has risen from 11% to 60%, currently at 51%. Polymarket allows users to bet on future events, and this shift reflects growing optimism in the community.

最後，預測市場多頭市場表明，比特幣在5月達到新ATH的可能性已從11％上升到60％，目前為51％。 Polymarket允許用戶下注未來的事件，這種轉變反映了社區中日益增長的樂觀情緒。

As confidence in Bitcoin’s upward potential grows, it could trigger a FOMO (fear of missing out) effect. This may attract more investors and push prices even higher.

隨著對比特幣向上潛力的信心的增長，它可能會引發FOMO（害怕錯過）效果。這可能會吸引更多的投資者，並將價格推高甚至更高。

In fact, Bitcoin has already hit new ATHs in countries like Turkey and Argentina, where local currencies have depreciated sharply. Experts like billionaire Tim Draper predict Bitcoin will hit $250,000 by the end of 2025. Besides, Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin could reach $120,000 in Q2.

實際上，比特幣已經在土耳其和阿根廷等國家遭受了新的ATH襲擊，那裡的當地貨幣急劇貶值。億萬富翁蒂姆·德雷珀（Tim Draper）這樣的專家預測，比特幣將在2025年底之前達到25萬美元。此外，在第二季度，比特幣的標準預報將達到120,000美元。