比特幣破壞了ATH，但MVRV比率講述了一個新故事

比特幣最近在價格上達到了新的歷史最高（ATH），但令人著迷

Bitcoin recently hit a new All-Time High (ATH) in price, but an interesting shift has occurred. Usually, the MVRV ratio peaks around the same time as Bitcoin’s price hits a new ATH. However, this time, the MVRV ratio is still relatively low, even though BTC has crossed the $100K mark.

比特幣最近在價格上達到了新的高價（ATH），但發生了一個有趣的轉變。通常，MVRV比率與比特幣的價格達到新的ATH相同。但是，這次，即使BTC越過了$ 10萬美元的商標，MVRV比率仍然相對較低。

What is the MVRV Ratio and Why Does It Matter?

MVRV比率是多少？為什麼重要？

The MVRV ratio is calculated by dividing Market Cap by Realized Cap. It’s often used to identify overheated markets. When the MVRV ratio rises sharply—especially above 3.5 to 4.0—it indicates high unrealized profits and has correlated with local tops in Bitcoin’s price, seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

MVRV比率是通過將市值除以實現的上限來計算的。它通常用於識別過熱的市場。當MVRV比率急劇上升（尤其是3.5至4.0以上）時，它表明未實現的利潤很高，並且在2013年，2017年和2021年的比特幣價格上與本地頂部相關。

However, in this current cycle (2025), Bitcoin crossed $100K without the MVRV ratio approaching those peak levels. It currently sits around 2.4, which is lower than past ATH zones.

但是，在當前週期（2025年）中，比特幣在沒有MVRV比率接近這些峰值水平的情況下越過$ 100K。目前，它位於2.4左右，比過去的Ath區域低。

This disconnect raises questions about market behavior and the forces driving this cycle.

這種斷開連接引發了有關市場行為和推動這一周期的力量的問題。

What Does the Chart Show?

圖表顯示什麼？

Image Credit: eMarketer

圖片來源：eMarketer

This divergence can be attributed to a significant rise in Bitcoin’s Realized Cap, explained the author of the post. More coins have moved and settled at higher cost bases than in prior cycles. In essence, the network’s aggregate cost basis has shifted upwards, indicating that many holders acquired their BTC at higher prices, leading to fewer unrealized gains even at new ATHs.

該帖子的作者解釋說，這種差異可以歸因於比特幣已實現的上限的顯著增加。與以前的周期相比，以更高的成本基礎移動和定居。從本質上講，網絡的總成本基礎已經上升，這表明許多持有人以較高的價格獲得了BTC，甚至在新ATHS中，未實現的收益較少。

This could suggest:

這可能表明：

This divergence may represent a healthier bull market, one driven by conviction rather than speculation. While MVRV isn’t flashing a “top” signal, it also implies that the market could have more room to run before becoming overheated.

這種分歧可能代表一個更健康的牛市，這是由信念而不是投機驅動的。儘管MVRV沒有閃爍“頂部”信號，但這也意味著在過熱之前，市場可能有更多的運行空間。

Overall, while price alone tells one story, on-chain metrics like MVRV tell a deeper story—one of strength and possibly a maturing market dynamic. If sustained, this trend may alter how we interpret future ATHs and market tops.

總體而言，雖然僅普萊斯講一個故事，但像MVRV這樣的鍊鍊指標講述了一個更深層的故事，這是一個力量的一個，甚至可能是成熟的市場動態。如果持續下去，這種趨勢可能會改變我們解釋未來的ATHS和市場頂級的方式。