Bitcoin Breaks ATH, But MVRV Ratio Tells a New Story

Bitcoin has recently reached a new All-Time High (ATH) in price, yet an intriguing shift is emerging beneath the surface—its MVRV ratio hasn't followed the historical pattern

Bitcoin recently hit a new All-Time High (ATH) in price, but an interesting shift has occurred. Usually, the MVRV ratio peaks around the same time as Bitcoin’s price hits a new ATH. However, this time, the MVRV ratio is still relatively low, even though BTC has crossed the $100K mark.

What is the MVRV Ratio and Why Does It Matter?

The MVRV ratio is calculated by dividing Market Cap by Realized Cap. It’s often used to identify overheated markets. When the MVRV ratio rises sharply—especially above 3.5 to 4.0—it indicates high unrealized profits and has correlated with local tops in Bitcoin’s price, seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

However, in this current cycle (2025), Bitcoin crossed $100K without the MVRV ratio approaching those peak levels. It currently sits around 2.4, which is lower than past ATH zones.

This disconnect raises questions about market behavior and the forces driving this cycle.

What Does the Chart Show?

Image Credit: eMarketer

This divergence can be attributed to a significant rise in Bitcoin’s Realized Cap, explained the author of the post. More coins have moved and settled at higher cost bases than in prior cycles. In essence, the network’s aggregate cost basis has shifted upwards, indicating that many holders acquired their BTC at higher prices, leading to fewer unrealized gains even at new ATHs.

This could suggest:

This divergence may represent a healthier bull market, one driven by conviction rather than speculation. While MVRV isn’t flashing a “top” signal, it also implies that the market could have more room to run before becoming overheated.

Overall, while price alone tells one story, on-chain metrics like MVRV tell a deeper story—one of strength and possibly a maturing market dynamic. If sustained, this trend may alter how we interpret future ATHs and market tops.