比特币破坏了ATH，但MVRV比率讲述了一个新故事

比特币最近在价格上达到了新的历史最高（ATH），但令人着迷

Bitcoin recently hit a new All-Time High (ATH) in price, but an interesting shift has occurred. Usually, the MVRV ratio peaks around the same time as Bitcoin’s price hits a new ATH. However, this time, the MVRV ratio is still relatively low, even though BTC has crossed the $100K mark.

比特币最近在价格上达到了新的高价（ATH），但发生了一个有趣的转变。通常，MVRV比率与比特币的价格达到新的ATH相同。但是，这次，即使BTC越过了$ 10万美元的商标，MVRV比率仍然相对较低。

What is the MVRV Ratio and Why Does It Matter?

MVRV比率是多少？为什么重要？

The MVRV ratio is calculated by dividing Market Cap by Realized Cap. It’s often used to identify overheated markets. When the MVRV ratio rises sharply—especially above 3.5 to 4.0—it indicates high unrealized profits and has correlated with local tops in Bitcoin’s price, seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

MVRV比率是通过将市值除以实现的上限来计算的。它通常用于识别过热的市场。当MVRV比率急剧上升（尤其是3.5至4.0以上）时，它表明未实现的利润很高，并且在2013年，2017年和2021年的比特币价格上与本地顶部相关。

However, in this current cycle (2025), Bitcoin crossed $100K without the MVRV ratio approaching those peak levels. It currently sits around 2.4, which is lower than past ATH zones.

但是，在当前周期（2025年）中，比特币在没有MVRV比率接近这些峰值水平的情况下越过$ 100K。目前，它位于2.4左右，比过去的Ath区域低。

This disconnect raises questions about market behavior and the forces driving this cycle.

这种断开连接引发了有关市场行为和推动这一周期的力量的问题。

What Does the Chart Show?

图表显示什么？

Image Credit: eMarketer

图片来源：eMarketer

This divergence can be attributed to a significant rise in Bitcoin’s Realized Cap, explained the author of the post. More coins have moved and settled at higher cost bases than in prior cycles. In essence, the network’s aggregate cost basis has shifted upwards, indicating that many holders acquired their BTC at higher prices, leading to fewer unrealized gains even at new ATHs.

该帖子的作者解释说，这种差异可以归因于比特币已实现的上限的显着增加。与以前的周期相比，以更高的成本基础移动和定居。从本质上讲，网络的总成本基础已经上升，这表明许多持有人以较高的价格获得了BTC，甚至在新ATHS中，未实现的收益较少。

This could suggest:

这可能表明：

This divergence may represent a healthier bull market, one driven by conviction rather than speculation. While MVRV isn’t flashing a “top” signal, it also implies that the market could have more room to run before becoming overheated.

这种分歧可能代表一个更健康的牛市，这是由信念而不是投机驱动的。尽管MVRV没有闪烁“顶部”信号，但这也意味着在过热之前，市场可能有更多的运行空间。

Overall, while price alone tells one story, on-chain metrics like MVRV tell a deeper story—one of strength and possibly a maturing market dynamic. If sustained, this trend may alter how we interpret future ATHs and market tops.

总体而言，虽然仅普莱斯讲一个故事，但像MVRV这样的链链指标讲述了一个更深层的故事，这是一个力量的一个，甚至可能是成熟的市场动态。如果持续下去，这种趋势可能会改变我们解释未来的ATHS和市场顶级的方式。