Alphabet Inc.（GOOG，GOOGL）股票的價值至少增加29％，值得購買

Alphabet Inc.（GOOG，GOOGL）報告了4月24日星期四的Q1自由現金流（FCF）的結果高於去年。然而，儘管落後了12個月（TTM）的資本支出，但其FCF利潤率仍然很高。

Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) reported higher Q1 free cash flow (FCF) results than last year. However, despite trailing 12-month (TTM) capex spending that surged over 50%, its FCF margins remained high. That makes GOOG stock look cheap here, worth at least 29% more at $211 per share. This article will describe why.

Alphabet Inc.（NASDAQ：GOOG）（NASDAQ：GOOGL）報告的Q1自由現金流（FCF）的結果高於去年。然而，儘管落後了12個月（TTM）的資本支出，但其FCF利潤率仍然很高。這使得GOOG股票在這裡看起來便宜，至少價值29％，每股211美元。本文將描述原因。

GOOG closed Friday, April 24, at $163.85, up from a recent low of $146.58 on April 8. However, this price is still well off its 3-month high of $207.71 on Feb. 4.

GOOG於4月24日星期五關閉，價格為163.85美元，高於4月8日的最近146.58美元的低價。但是，這個價格仍然遠遠超過了2月4日的3個月高點207.71美元。

Alphabet's results indicate that the market fears about the company's earnings and FCF may have been overblown. Given its historical FCF yield metrics the stock looks cheap. Let's look into that.

Alphabet的結果表明，市場擔心公司的收入和FCF可能已經誇張了。鑑於其歷史FCF收益指標，庫存看起來便宜。讓我們來看看。

Strong Free Cash Flow, Despite Significantly Higher Capex

儘管資本支出明顯更高，但強大的自由現金流

Alphabet's Q1 revenue was up +12% year-over-year to $92.234 billion, and its FCF came in at $18.953 billion. That FCF was also +12.57% higher than a year ago, as can be seen in the table below.

Alphabet的第一季度收入同比增長12％，達到922.4億美元，其FCF的收入為189.53億美元。如下表所示，該FCF也比去年同期高12.57％。

Moreover, the TTM FCF figure in the table of $74.881 billion was +8.35% higher than the $69.111 billion TTM FCF from a year ago, using Seeking Alpha data.

此外，使用尋求Alpha數據的TTM FCF數字為748.81億美元的TTM FCF數字比一年前的69.11億美元TTM FCF高8.35％。

However, look at these figures more closely. It shows that capex spending has increased significantly in the last two quarters. In fact, the Q1 2025 figure was 48% higher at $17.2 billion compared to a year ago at $12.0 billion.

但是，更仔細地看這些數字。它表明，在過去的兩個季度中，資本支出的支出顯著增加。實際上，第一季度2025年數字高48％，至172億美元，而一年前為120億美元。

Now the market knew this was happening. The company had made it clear it was spending a good deal more on data centers and AI infrastructure. That was why there were fears that Alphabet's free cash flow and, more specifically, its FCF margins would tumble.

現在市場知道這正在發生。該公司明確表示，它在數據中心和AI基礎架構上花費了更多的錢。這就是為什麼有人擔心字母的自由現金流，更具體地說，其FCF利潤率會跌落。

But they haven't. For example, last quarter, the $18.953 billion in FCF represented 21.0% of the $90.234 billion revenue. Last year in Q1 2024, the $16.936 billion FCF was 20.9% of the $80.539 billion in revenue.

但是他們沒有。例如，上個季度，FCF的189.53億美元占902.34億美元收入的21.0％。去年在2024年第一季度，這筆169.6億美元的FCF是805.39億美元收入的20.9％。

In other words, despite a massive increase in capex spending (+48%), Alphabet still squeezed out a higher amount of cash flow (after capex spending) as a proportion of sales. That means it's managing its other costs very well.

換句話說，儘管資本支出大幅增加（+48％），但字母仍將更高的現金流量（在資本支出後）擠出了一定比例的銷售額。這意味著它可以很好地管理其他成本。

Moreover, this shows up in the TTM figures. For example, the $74.881 billion in TTM FCF was 20.8% of $359.7 billion in TTM revenue. A year ago, the $69.11 billion in TTM FCF (SA data) was 21.7% of the $318.146 billion in sales. That was despite 52% higher capex spending over the two TTM periods (i.e., $57.7b vs. $37.97b).

此外，這顯示在TTM數字中。例如，TTM FCF的748.81億美元在TTM收入中為3597億美元的20.8％。一年前，TTM FCF的6911億美元（SA數據）是銷售額3181.46億美元的21.7％。儘管在兩個TTM期間的資本支出上漲了52％（即57.7B $ 37.97B）。

As a result, going forward, we can still expect Alphabet to maintain at least a 21% FCF margin. Let's use that to forecast its future FCF and then set a price target.

結果，向前看，我們仍然可以期望字母至少保持21％的FCF利潤率。讓我們用它來預測其未來的FCF，然後設定目標目標。

Projecting FCF And Setting A Price Target

投影FCF並設定目標價格

For example, analysts now forecast that Alphabet's 2025 revenue will rise by +10.6% to $387.25 billion (from $350.018 in 2024) and +10.7% to $428.73 billion in 2026.

例如，分析師現在預測，Alphabet的2025年收入將增長 +10.6％，至3872.5億美元（從2024年的350.018美元起），2026年的收入將增長到355.018美元， +10.7％至4287.3億美元。

That means its average run-rate revenue for the next 12 months (NTM) is about $437.5 billion (almost 25% higher than 2024). As a result, applying a 21% FCF margin to this NTM figure allows us to project its future FCF:

這意味著其未來12個月（NTM）的平均運行利率收入約為4375億美元（比2024年高25％）。結果，將21％的FCF保證金應用於此NTM數字，使我們能夠投射其未來的FCF：

$437.5b NTM revenue x 0.21 FCF margin = $91.875 billion NTM FCF

$ 437.5B NTM收入X 0.21 FCF Margin = 9187.5億美元NTM NTM FCF

That is 22.7% higher than its TTM FCF figure in the table above ($74.881 billion). This could lead to a higher stock market valuation.

比上表中的TTM FCF數字高22.7％（748.81億美元）。這可能會導致較高的股票市場估值。

For example, Alphabet's market cap is $1,954 billion (i.e., almost $2 trillion). So, it

例如，Alphabet的市值為19.54億美元（即近2萬億美元）。所以，它