Alphabet Inc.（GOOG，GOOGL）股票的价值至少增加29％，值得购买

Alphabet Inc.（GOOG，GOOGL）报告了4月24日星期四的Q1自由现金流（FCF）的结果高于去年。然而，尽管落后了12个月（TTM）的资本支出，但其FCF利润率仍然很高。

Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) reported higher Q1 free cash flow (FCF) results than last year. However, despite trailing 12-month (TTM) capex spending that surged over 50%, its FCF margins remained high. That makes GOOG stock look cheap here, worth at least 29% more at $211 per share. This article will describe why.

Alphabet Inc.（NASDAQ：GOOG）（NASDAQ：GOOGL）报告的Q1自由现金流（FCF）的结果高于去年。然而，尽管落后了12个月（TTM）的资本支出，但其FCF利润率仍然很高。这使得GOOG股票在这里看起来便宜，至少价值29％，每股211美元。本文将描述原因。

GOOG closed Friday, April 24, at $163.85, up from a recent low of $146.58 on April 8. However, this price is still well off its 3-month high of $207.71 on Feb. 4.

GOOG于4月24日星期五关闭，价格为163.85美元，高于4月8日的最近146.58美元的低价。但是，这个价格仍然远远超过了2月4日的3个月高点207.71美元。

Alphabet's results indicate that the market fears about the company's earnings and FCF may have been overblown. Given its historical FCF yield metrics the stock looks cheap. Let's look into that.

Alphabet的结果表明，市场担心公司的收入和FCF可能已经夸张了。鉴于其历史FCF收益指标，库存看起来便宜。让我们来看看。

Strong Free Cash Flow, Despite Significantly Higher Capex

尽管资本支出明显更高，但强大的自由现金流

Alphabet's Q1 revenue was up +12% year-over-year to $92.234 billion, and its FCF came in at $18.953 billion. That FCF was also +12.57% higher than a year ago, as can be seen in the table below.

Alphabet的第一季度收入同比增长12％，达到922.4亿美元，其FCF的收入为189.53亿美元。如下表所示，该FCF也比去年同期高12.57％。

Moreover, the TTM FCF figure in the table of $74.881 billion was +8.35% higher than the $69.111 billion TTM FCF from a year ago, using Seeking Alpha data.

此外，使用寻求Alpha数据的TTM FCF数字为748.81亿美元的TTM FCF数字比一年前的69.11亿美元TTM FCF高8.35％。

However, look at these figures more closely. It shows that capex spending has increased significantly in the last two quarters. In fact, the Q1 2025 figure was 48% higher at $17.2 billion compared to a year ago at $12.0 billion.

但是，更仔细地看这些数字。它表明，在过去的两个季度中，资本支出的支出显着增加。实际上，第一季度2025年数字高48％，至172亿美元，而一年前为120亿美元。

Now the market knew this was happening. The company had made it clear it was spending a good deal more on data centers and AI infrastructure. That was why there were fears that Alphabet's free cash flow and, more specifically, its FCF margins would tumble.

现在市场知道这正在发生。该公司明确表示，它在数据中心和AI基础架构上花费了更多的钱。这就是为什么有人担心字母的自由现金流，更具体地说，其FCF利润率会跌落。

But they haven't. For example, last quarter, the $18.953 billion in FCF represented 21.0% of the $90.234 billion revenue. Last year in Q1 2024, the $16.936 billion FCF was 20.9% of the $80.539 billion in revenue.

但是他们没有。例如，上个季度，FCF的189.53亿美元占902.34亿美元收入的21.0％。去年在2024年第一季度，这笔169.6亿美元的FCF是805.39亿美元收入的20.9％。

In other words, despite a massive increase in capex spending (+48%), Alphabet still squeezed out a higher amount of cash flow (after capex spending) as a proportion of sales. That means it's managing its other costs very well.

换句话说，尽管资本支出大幅增加（+48％），但字母仍将更高的现金流量（在资本支出后）挤出了一定比例的销售额。这意味着它可以很好地管理其他成本。

Moreover, this shows up in the TTM figures. For example, the $74.881 billion in TTM FCF was 20.8% of $359.7 billion in TTM revenue. A year ago, the $69.11 billion in TTM FCF (SA data) was 21.7% of the $318.146 billion in sales. That was despite 52% higher capex spending over the two TTM periods (i.e., $57.7b vs. $37.97b).

此外，这显示在TTM数字中。例如，TTM FCF的748.81亿美元在TTM收入中为3597亿美元的20.8％。一年前，TTM FCF的6911亿美元（SA数据）是销售额3181.46亿美元的21.7％。尽管在两个TTM期间的资本支出上涨了52％（即57.7B $ 37.97B）。

As a result, going forward, we can still expect Alphabet to maintain at least a 21% FCF margin. Let's use that to forecast its future FCF and then set a price target.

结果，向前看，我们仍然可以期望字母至少保持21％的FCF利润率。让我们用它来预测其未来的FCF，然后设定目标目标。

Projecting FCF And Setting A Price Target

投影FCF并设定目标价格

For example, analysts now forecast that Alphabet's 2025 revenue will rise by +10.6% to $387.25 billion (from $350.018 in 2024) and +10.7% to $428.73 billion in 2026.

例如，分析师现在预测，Alphabet的2025年收入将增长 +10.6％，至3872.5亿美元（从2024年的350.018美元起），2026年的收入将增长到355.018美元， +10.7％至4287.3亿美元。

That means its average run-rate revenue for the next 12 months (NTM) is about $437.5 billion (almost 25% higher than 2024). As a result, applying a 21% FCF margin to this NTM figure allows us to project its future FCF:

这意味着其未来12个月（NTM）的平均运行利率收入约为4375亿美元（比2024年高25％）。结果，将21％的FCF保证金应用于此NTM数字，使我们能够投射其未来的FCF：

$437.5b NTM revenue x 0.21 FCF margin = $91.875 billion NTM FCF

$ 437.5B NTM收入X 0.21 FCF Margin = 9187.5亿美元NTM NTM FCF

That is 22.7% higher than its TTM FCF figure in the table above ($74.881 billion). This could lead to a higher stock market valuation.

比上表中的TTM FCF数字高22.7％（748.81亿美元）。这可能会导致较高的股票市场估值。

For example, Alphabet's market cap is $1,954 billion (i.e., almost $2 trillion). So, it

例如，Alphabet的市值为19.54亿美元（即近2万亿美元）。所以，它