在特朗普政府的领导下，加密采用正在加速。

从监管和宏观经济学的角度来看，美国已经成为塑造加密货币市场的中心力量。

The Trump administration has seen a swift acceleration in crypto adoption fueled by the administration’s policies and actions.

特朗普政府已经看到了政府的政策和行动加速加密采用的迅速加速。

The US has emerged as a central force in shaping the crypto market, both from the standpoint of regulation and macroeconomics. This is also evident in how the crypto market has begun moving along with US stock markets, reflecting growing institutional participation and sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions. In its latest report, HTX Ventures takes a look at the implementation of President Donald Trump’s crypto policies and the impact of current US dollar liquidity on the crypto markets.

从监管和宏观经济学的角度来看，美国已经成为塑造加密货币市场的中心力量。这对于加密市场开始与美国股票市场的发展方式也很明显，这反映了制度的参与和对宏观经济状况的敏感性。 HTX Ventures在其最新报告中研究了唐纳德·特朗普总统的加密政策的实施以及当前的美元流动性对加密货币市场的影响。

How regulation is reshaping crypto market cycles

法规如何重塑加密市场周期

"Legalization and dollarization are the defining core tailwinds of this cycle. Bitcoin is the primary beneficiary, acting as a gateway for US institutional capital via ETFs, which further solidifies the long-term legitimacy of the US crypto industry. The US crypto adoption process is expected to generate a continuous stream of positive news and regulatory developments.

“合法化和美元化是该周期的定义核心尾风。比特币是主要的受益人，是通过ETF的美国机构资本的门户，这进一步巩固了美国加密工业的长期合法性。美国加密货币采用过程有望产生积极的新闻和调节性开发的连续流。

The evolution of US crypto policy will likely span the entirety of the second Trump term. Proposals to finance large-scale Bitcoin purchases, similar to the accumulation of gold during the Great Depression, will require fiscal maneuvering. These measures may even include engineering negative GDP prints to justify monetary stimulus, as has occurred in past cycles, including 2008, 2020, and other periods of economic stress. The US has yet to allocate an official budget for sovereign Bitcoin purchases.

美国加密政策的演变可能会涵盖第二个特朗普任期的整个。为大规模购买的大规模比特币购买的建议，类似于大萧条期间黄金的积累，需要进行财政操纵。这些措施甚至可能包括工程负GDP印刷品以证明货币刺激的合理性，就像过去的周期一样，包括2008年，2020年和其他经济压力。美国尚未分配官方预算购买主权比特币的购买。

Unlike past cycles propelled by catalysts such as the ICO boom in 2017 or the DeFi Summer of 2020, the current cycle is driven by a regulatory shift, including the SEC’s supportive stance on crypto and the proposed Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

与过去由催化剂（例如2017年ICO繁荣）或2020年夏季的催化剂推动的周期不同，当前周期是由监管转变驱动的，包括SEC对加密货币的支持立场和拟议的战略比特币储备。

The crypto market is increasingly aligned with global macro trends, mirroring tech equities in their longer, more stable cycles. In the current cycle, Bitcoin exhibits a stronger correlation with traditional financial markets, alongside abnormally low volatility.

加密市场越来越与全球宏观趋势保持一致，以更长，更稳定的周期反映技术股票。在当前周期中，比特币与传统金融市场的相关性更强，而且波动性异常低。

Institutional investors have now become the primary drivers of Bitcoin’s price movements. This can be demonstrated by open interest in CME Bitcoin futures, which rose from under $4 billion before the approval of ETFs to a consistent level above $10 billion, with peaks above $20 billion.

机构投资者现在已成为比特币价格变动的主要驱动力。 CME比特币期货的开放兴趣可以证明这一点可以证明，在ETF批准之前，该期货从40亿美元上升到一致的水平超过100亿美元以上，高峰高于200亿美元。

However, CME’s open interest may be inflated by institutional investors, who use leverage to profit from the spread between spot ETFs and futures when the basis exceeds the US Treasury yield. If these basis arbitrage positions are unwound at scale, they could trigger sharp price declines through spot ETF outflows.”

但是，机构投资者可能会膨胀CME的开放利益，他们利用杠杆利用从现货ETF和未来之间的利益中获利，而该基础超过了美国财政收益率。如果这些基础套利位置在大规模上取消，则可以通过现货ETF流出触发急剧的价格下降。”

Trump’s crypto policy execution

特朗普的加密政策执行

Recent policies implemented under the Trump administration have accelerated the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies. The repeal of SAB 121 enabled traditional financial institutions to offer custodial services for crypto assets. As such, Citibank is actively exploring the opportunity of adding crypto custody, while JPMorgan Chase plans to offer crypto investments to its clients through a third-party custodian.

特朗普政府实施的最新政策加快了加密货币的制度化。废除SAB 121使传统金融机构能够为加密资产提供托管服务。因此，花旗银行正在积极探索增加加密货币监护权的机会，而摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）计划通过第三方保管人向客户提供加密货币投资。

The FIT21 bill and executive actions around stablecoins have also laid the groundwork for long-term regulatory clarity. FIT21, though not yet enacted, sets the direction for digital asset classification. It splits them between the SEC and the CFTC, depending on the level of decentralization: Highly decentralized tokens fall under the CFTC, and more centralized assets remain under the SEC’s oversight.

FIT21法案和围绕Stablecoins的执行行动也为长期监管清晰度奠定了基础。 FIT21虽然尚未颁布，但为数字资产分类设定了方向。它将它们分配在SEC和CFTC之间，具体取决于权力下放的水平：高度分散的代币属于CFTC，而更多的集中资产仍在SEC的监督下。

The future outlook points to even more favorable regulatory developments for the crypto industry. While the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has been recently established, active purchases of Bitcoin have not yet begun, which suggests that a key growth catalyst may still be ahead.

未来的前景指出，对加密货币行业的监管发展更加有利。尽管最近已经建立了美国战略比特币储备，但尚未开始积极购买比特币，这表明关键的增长催化剂可能仍在领先。

In parallel, stablecoin legislation is expected to advance rapidly. The proposed GENIUS Act aims to create a comprehensive regulatory framework for dollar-backed stablecoins, providing a legitimate entry point for banks, payment processors and corporations. The Trump administration had already supported the initiative to enable commercial banks to custody or issue stablecoins during its first term.

同时，Stablecoin立法有望迅速发展。拟议的《天才法》旨在为美元支持的稳定币创建一个全面的监管框架，为银行，付款处理器和公司提供合法的入口点。特朗普政府已经支持该倡议，以使商业银行在其第一任期内能够监护或签发稳定币。