在特朗普政府的領導下，加密採用正在加速。

從監管和宏觀經濟學的角度來看，美國已經成為塑造加密貨幣市場的中心力量。

The Trump administration has seen a swift acceleration in crypto adoption fueled by the administration’s policies and actions.

特朗普政府已經看到了政府的政策和行動加速加密採用的迅速加速。

The US has emerged as a central force in shaping the crypto market, both from the standpoint of regulation and macroeconomics. This is also evident in how the crypto market has begun moving along with US stock markets, reflecting growing institutional participation and sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions. In its latest report, HTX Ventures takes a look at the implementation of President Donald Trump’s crypto policies and the impact of current US dollar liquidity on the crypto markets.

從監管和宏觀經濟學的角度來看，美國已經成為塑造加密貨幣市場的中心力量。這對於加密市場開始與美國股票市場的發展方式也很明顯，這反映了製度的參與和對宏觀經濟狀況的敏感性。 HTX Ventures在其最新報告中研究了唐納德·特朗普總統的加密政策的實施以及當前的美元流動性對加密貨幣市場的影響。

How regulation is reshaping crypto market cycles

法規如何重塑加密市場週期

"Legalization and dollarization are the defining core tailwinds of this cycle. Bitcoin is the primary beneficiary, acting as a gateway for US institutional capital via ETFs, which further solidifies the long-term legitimacy of the US crypto industry. The US crypto adoption process is expected to generate a continuous stream of positive news and regulatory developments.

“合法化和美元化是該週期的定義核心尾風。比特幣是主要的受益人，是通過ETF的美國機構資本的門戶，這進一步鞏固了美國加密工業的長期合法性。美國加密貨幣採用過程有望產生積極的新聞和調節性開發的連續流。

The evolution of US crypto policy will likely span the entirety of the second Trump term. Proposals to finance large-scale Bitcoin purchases, similar to the accumulation of gold during the Great Depression, will require fiscal maneuvering. These measures may even include engineering negative GDP prints to justify monetary stimulus, as has occurred in past cycles, including 2008, 2020, and other periods of economic stress. The US has yet to allocate an official budget for sovereign Bitcoin purchases.

美國加密政策的演變可能會涵蓋第二個特朗普任期的整個。為大規模購買的大規模比特幣購買的建議，類似於大蕭條期間黃金的積累，需要進行財政操縱。這些措施甚至可能包括工程負GDP印刷品以證明貨幣刺激的合理性，就像過去的周期一樣，包括2008年，2020年和其他經濟壓力。美國尚未分配官方預算購買主權比特幣的購買。

Unlike past cycles propelled by catalysts such as the ICO boom in 2017 or the DeFi Summer of 2020, the current cycle is driven by a regulatory shift, including the SEC’s supportive stance on crypto and the proposed Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

與過去由催化劑（例如2017年ICO繁榮）或2020年夏季的催化劑推動的周期不同，當前週期是由監管轉變驅動的，包括SEC對加密貨幣的支持立場和擬議的戰略比特幣儲備。

The crypto market is increasingly aligned with global macro trends, mirroring tech equities in their longer, more stable cycles. In the current cycle, Bitcoin exhibits a stronger correlation with traditional financial markets, alongside abnormally low volatility.

加密市場越來越與全球宏觀趨勢保持一致，以更長，更穩定的周期反映技術股票。在當前週期中，比特幣與傳統金融市場的相關性更強，而且波動性異常低。

Institutional investors have now become the primary drivers of Bitcoin’s price movements. This can be demonstrated by open interest in CME Bitcoin futures, which rose from under $4 billion before the approval of ETFs to a consistent level above $10 billion, with peaks above $20 billion.

機構投資者現在已成為比特幣價格變動的主要驅動力。 CME比特幣期貨的開放興趣可以證明這一點可以證明，在ETF批准之前，該期貨從40億美元上升到一致的水平超過100億美元以上，高峰高於200億美元。

However, CME’s open interest may be inflated by institutional investors, who use leverage to profit from the spread between spot ETFs and futures when the basis exceeds the US Treasury yield. If these basis arbitrage positions are unwound at scale, they could trigger sharp price declines through spot ETF outflows.”

但是，機構投資者可能會膨脹CME的開放利益，他們利用槓桿利用從現貨ETF和未來之間的利益中獲利，而該基礎超過了美國財政收益率。如果這些基礎套利位置在大規模上取消，則可以通過現貨ETF流出觸發急劇的價格下降。 ”

Trump’s crypto policy execution

特朗普的加密政策執行

Recent policies implemented under the Trump administration have accelerated the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies. The repeal of SAB 121 enabled traditional financial institutions to offer custodial services for crypto assets. As such, Citibank is actively exploring the opportunity of adding crypto custody, while JPMorgan Chase plans to offer crypto investments to its clients through a third-party custodian.

特朗普政府實施的最新政策加快了加密貨幣的製度化。廢除SAB 121使傳統金融機構能夠為加密資產提供託管服務。因此，花旗銀行正在積極探索增加加密貨幣監護權的機會，而摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）計劃通過第三方保管人向客戶提供加密貨幣投資。

The FIT21 bill and executive actions around stablecoins have also laid the groundwork for long-term regulatory clarity. FIT21, though not yet enacted, sets the direction for digital asset classification. It splits them between the SEC and the CFTC, depending on the level of decentralization: Highly decentralized tokens fall under the CFTC, and more centralized assets remain under the SEC’s oversight.

FIT21法案和圍繞Stablecoins的執行行動也為長期監管清晰度奠定了基礎。 FIT21雖然尚未頒布，但為數字資產分類設定了方向。它將它們分配在SEC和CFTC之間，具體取決於權力下放的水平：高度分散的代幣屬於CFTC，而更多的集中資產仍在SEC的監督下。

The future outlook points to even more favorable regulatory developments for the crypto industry. While the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has been recently established, active purchases of Bitcoin have not yet begun, which suggests that a key growth catalyst may still be ahead.

未來的前景指出，對加密貨幣行業的監管發展更加有利。儘管最近已經建立了美國戰略比特幣儲備，但尚未開始積極購買比特幣，這表明關鍵的增長催化劑可能仍在領先。

In parallel, stablecoin legislation is expected to advance rapidly. The proposed GENIUS Act aims to create a comprehensive regulatory framework for dollar-backed stablecoins, providing a legitimate entry point for banks, payment processors and corporations. The Trump administration had already supported the initiative to enable commercial banks to custody or issue stablecoins during its first term.

同時，Stablecoin立法有望迅速發展。擬議的《天才法》旨在為美元支持的穩定幣創建一個全面的監管框架，為銀行，付款處理器和公司提供合法的入口點。特朗普政府已經支持該倡議，以使商業銀行在其第一任期內能夠監護或簽發穩定幣。