比特币国库公司是这个周期的狗屎币，警告堆栈霍德勒

越来越多的比特币评论员合唱正在引起人们对采用以比特币为中心的国库策略的公开贸易公司的繁荣时期的警报。

A pseudonymous investor known as Stack Hodler is sounding the alarm over what he describes as a "terrible idea" brewing in the public markets: companies making their treasury strategy a core part of their narrative to attract investors.

一位称为Stack Hodler的假名投资者正在向公共市场上酿造的“可怕的想法”发出警报：使他们的财政策略成为吸引投资者的核心部分。

While not a new phenomenon, Stack Hodler says the trend is now "exploding" with copycat firms, leading to "fiat shenanigans with the potential to unwind." In contrast, he celebrates companies that generate real economic value and use their profits to accumulate Bitcoin—something he views as a sustainable force in Bitcoin's monetization arc.

尽管这不是一个新现象，但Stack Hodler表示，这种趋势现在正在与模仿公司“爆炸”，导致“菲亚特恶作剧有可能放松身心”。相比之下，他庆祝了产生真正的经济价值并利用其利润积累比特币的公司，他认为他认为是比特币货币化弧线的可持续力量。

The discussion began with Bitcoin podcaster Stephan Livera referencing MicroStrategy's Q1 2025 earnings call, where Michael Saylor touched upon the company's persistent premium to net asset value (NAV).

讨论始于比特币PodCaster Stephan Livera，引用了Microstrategy的Q1 2025收入电话，Michael Saylor触及了该公司的持续保费对净资产价值（NAV）。

"Saylor outlined some reasons for MSTR being at a multiple to NAV. Of course, we know this premium is cyclical and has varied over time (e.g., sometimes it trades at a slight discount). But also, there's a broader structural context for this premium," said Livera.

利弗拉说：“塞勒（Saylor）概述了MSTR处于多重速度的一些原因。当然，我们知道这种溢价是周期性的，并且随着时间的流逝而变化（例如，有时会以轻微的折扣进行交易）。但是，这种高级的结构背景也更广泛。”

Pointing out the vast disparity between Bitcoin's $2 trillion market cap and the total market cap of $1,000 trillion for all assets, Livera said many large capital allocators are unable to directly hold Bitcoin due to regulatory, tax, or mandate-related restrictions.

利弗拉（Livera）指出，比特币的2万亿美元市值与所有资产的总市值为1,000万亿美元之间的巨大差异，利弗拉说，由于监管，税收或授权限制，许多大型资本分配器无法直接持有比特币。

"Thus, there’s an argument that a few treasury companies could exist long-term, so long as they’re managed prudently (e.g., not issuing shares at a discount to the BTC holdings). But ultimately, the best way to get exposure to Bitcoin is through self-custody."

“因此，有一个论点说，只要谨慎地管理一些财政公司，就可以长期存在（例如，不以BTC持有的折扣来发行股票）。但是，最终，接触比特币的最好方法是通过自我custodododododododododododododododododododododododododododododododododododododododody。”

However, Stack Hodler clarified that he wasn't referring to MicroStrategy.

但是，Stack Hodler澄清说，他没有指microstrategy。

"I’m talking about the copycat companies that are exploding in number and velocity. They're trying to ride on MSTR's coattails, much like how shitcoins try to ride on BTC's coattails."

“我说的是在数字和速度爆炸的模仿公司。

Expressing a preference for companies generating real value, Stack Hodler said he doesn't "wish any harm" on these firms and acknowledges that regulatory arbitrage might keep a few afloat in the short to medium term. But he questioned the viability of companies whose primary activity appears to be printing shares and using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin.

Stack Hodler表示倾向于产生真正价值的公司，他说他不对这些公司“希望有任何危害”，并承认监管套利可能会在短期到中期中保持一些流利。但是他质疑主要活动似乎是印刷股票并利用收益购买比特币的公司的生存能力。

"I love seeing companies with real profitable businesses stack BTC. But companies with no revenue or minimal revenue, whose primary focus is share issuance to fund BTC buying ... I feel like that's shakier territory and has more potential for bad actors to come in and scam people."

“我喜欢看到拥有真正有利可图的企业BTC的公司，但是没有收入或最低收入的公司，其主要重点是股份发行以资助BTC的购买……我觉得这是更摇摇欲坠的领土，并且有更多的潜力让坏演员进来和骗人。”

The topic sparked further discussion among industry figures. Scott Melker, host of "The Wolf of All Streets" podcast, said he hates to even think about it, but feels that Bitcoin treasury companies pivoting and raising debt to buy Bitcoin could be the next bubble.

该主题引发了行业数字之间的进一步讨论。 Scott Melker的主持人Scott Melker播客的主持人说，他讨厌甚至考虑一下，但感觉到比特币财政部公司旋转并提高债务以购买比特币可能是下一个泡沫。

Market structure analyst Dave Weisberger agreed there's risk, but took a more measured stance. "Sure. But we have to let bubbles inflate before we get worried about them... spoiler, Bitcoin is NOT near bubble territory."

市场结构分析师戴夫·韦斯伯格（Dave Weisberger）同意存在风险，但采取了更加衡量的立场。 “当然。但是，我们必须让气泡膨胀，然后才能担心它们……破坏者，比特币不在泡泡区域附近。”

Technical analyst FiboSwanny, a 25-year market veteran, focused on leverage and market structure.

技术分析师Fiboswanny是一名25年的市场退伍军人，专注于杠杆和市场结构。

"If there’s a bubble forming, it’s likely in the financial instruments and leverage around Bitcoin—like debt-funded treasury purchases, ETFs, derivatives—not in actual Bitcoin itself," he said.

他说：“如果有泡沫形成，它可能是金融工具中的，并且围绕比特币（例如债务资助的财政部购买，ETF，衍生品）利用了实际的比特币本身。”

Lark Davis took a more bearish tone, adding that this is "our GBTC leverage this cycle that will have a horrific unwind with devastating consequences later. Especially the companies buying altcoins."

拉克·戴维斯（Lark Davis）采取了更加看跌的语气，并补充说：“我们的GBTC在这个周期中利用了这一周期，后来会带来令人震惊的后果。尤其是购买山寨币的公司。”

Finally, Swan CEO Cory Klippsten didn'889;t mince words, simply stating that the trend has "already jumped the shark."

最终，天鹅首席执行官科里·克利普斯滕（Cory Klippsten）没有889; t mince的话，只是说趋势已经“跳了鲨鱼”。

The current landscape includes dozens of public companies with direct Bitcoin holdings, some of which are drawing intense retail speculation.

当前的景观包括数十家拥有直接比特币持有的上市公司，其中一些是在引起强烈的零售猜测。

MicroStrategy remains the dominant force, with well over half a million Bitcoin on its books. Other names include Metaplanet in Japan, Semler Scientific (NASDAQ:SMCI), KULR Technology (NASDAQ:KULR), and various new entrants who have completely reorganized their corporate missions around Bitcoin accumulation.

微型策略仍然是主要的力量，其书籍上有超过半百万的比特币。其他名称包括日本的Metaplanet，Semler Scientific（NASDAQ：SMCI），Kulr Technology（NASDAQ：KULR）以及各种新的参赛者，他们对比特币积累的公司任务进行了完全重组。

Many of these firms are now trading at multi-billion-dollar valuations, far above what their underlying business models would suggest.

这些公司中的许多人现在以数十亿美元的估值进行交易，远远超过其基本商业模式所暗示的。

The sustainability of the model is also up for debate. Most of these companies rely on issuing new equity at inflated valuations to finance further Bitcoin purchases, creating a reflexive cycle where rising BTC prices inflate share prices, which in turn enable more buying.

该模型的可持续性也需要进行辩论。这些公司中的大多数都依靠在夸大的估值下发行新的股权来为更多的比特币购买提供资金，从而创造了反思性的周期，在这种情况下，BTC价格上涨会使股价膨胀，从而使更多的购买。

This dynamic works beautifully in a bull market but can quickly reverse in a downturn, especially if the companies' shares begin trading at a deep discount to their Bitcoin holdings, as happened to a lesser extent with GBTC during the last cycle.

这种动态在牛市中效果很好，但可以迅速倒退，尤其是如果公司的股票开始以与其比特币持有量的高折扣交易，那么在上一个周期中与GBTC的程度较小。

As the narrative of institutional exposure unfolds, the question of how that exposure is structured becomes increasingly relevant. In simpler terms, as Stack Hodler put it:

随着机构暴露的叙述的展开，该暴露是如何构成的问题变得越来越相关。从更简单的角度来看，正如Stack Hodler所说：

"Bitcoin is and always will be the

“比特币是并且永远是