比特幣國庫公司是這個週期的狗屎幣，警告堆棧霍德勒

越來越多的比特幣評論員合唱正在引起人們對採用以比特幣為中心的國庫策略的公開貿易公司的繁榮時期的警報。

A pseudonymous investor known as Stack Hodler is sounding the alarm over what he describes as a "terrible idea" brewing in the public markets: companies making their treasury strategy a core part of their narrative to attract investors.

一位稱為Stack Hodler的假名投資者正在向公共市場上釀造的“可怕的想法”發出警報：使他們的財政策略成為吸引投資者的核心部分。

While not a new phenomenon, Stack Hodler says the trend is now "exploding" with copycat firms, leading to "fiat shenanigans with the potential to unwind." In contrast, he celebrates companies that generate real economic value and use their profits to accumulate Bitcoin—something he views as a sustainable force in Bitcoin's monetization arc.

儘管這不是一個新現象，但Stack Hodler表示，這種趨勢現在正在與模仿公司“爆炸”，導致“菲亞特惡作劇有可能放鬆身心”。相比之下，他慶祝了產生真正的經濟價值並利用其利潤積累比特幣的公司，他認為他認為是比特幣貨幣化弧線的可持續力量。

The discussion began with Bitcoin podcaster Stephan Livera referencing MicroStrategy's Q1 2025 earnings call, where Michael Saylor touched upon the company's persistent premium to net asset value (NAV).

討論始於比特幣PodCaster Stephan Livera，引用了Microstrategy的Q1 2025收入電話，Michael Saylor觸及了該公司的持續保費對淨資產價值（NAV）。

"Saylor outlined some reasons for MSTR being at a multiple to NAV. Of course, we know this premium is cyclical and has varied over time (e.g., sometimes it trades at a slight discount). But also, there's a broader structural context for this premium," said Livera.

利弗拉說：“塞勒（Saylor）概述了MSTR處於多重速度的一些原因。當然，我們知道這種溢價是周期性的，並且隨著時間的流逝而變化（例如，有時會以輕微的折扣進行交易）。但是，這種高級的結構背景也更廣泛。”

Pointing out the vast disparity between Bitcoin's $2 trillion market cap and the total market cap of $1,000 trillion for all assets, Livera said many large capital allocators are unable to directly hold Bitcoin due to regulatory, tax, or mandate-related restrictions.

利弗拉（Livera）指出，比特幣的2萬億美元市值與所有資產的總市值為1,000萬億美元之間的巨大差異，利弗拉說，由於監管，稅收或授權限制，許多大型資本分配器無法直接持有比特幣。

"Thus, there’s an argument that a few treasury companies could exist long-term, so long as they’re managed prudently (e.g., not issuing shares at a discount to the BTC holdings). But ultimately, the best way to get exposure to Bitcoin is through self-custody."

“因此，有一個論點說，只要謹慎地管理一些財政公司，就可以長期存在（例如，不以BTC持有的折扣來發行股票）。但是，最終，接觸比特幣的最好方法是通過自我custodododododododododododododododododododododododododododododododododododododododody。”

However, Stack Hodler clarified that he wasn't referring to MicroStrategy.

但是，Stack Hodler澄清說，他沒有指microstrategy。

"I’m talking about the copycat companies that are exploding in number and velocity. They're trying to ride on MSTR's coattails, much like how shitcoins try to ride on BTC's coattails."

“我說的是在數字和速度爆炸的模仿公司。

Expressing a preference for companies generating real value, Stack Hodler said he doesn't "wish any harm" on these firms and acknowledges that regulatory arbitrage might keep a few afloat in the short to medium term. But he questioned the viability of companies whose primary activity appears to be printing shares and using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin.

Stack Hodler表示傾向於產生真正價值的公司，他說他不對這些公司“希望有任何危害”，並承認監管套利可能會在短期到中期中保持一些流利。但是他質疑主要活動似乎是印刷股票並利用收益購買比特幣的公司的生存能力。

"I love seeing companies with real profitable businesses stack BTC. But companies with no revenue or minimal revenue, whose primary focus is share issuance to fund BTC buying ... I feel like that's shakier territory and has more potential for bad actors to come in and scam people."

“我喜歡看到擁有真正有利可圖的企業BTC的公司，但是沒有收入或最低收入的公司，其主要重點是股份發行以資助BTC的購買……我覺得這是更搖搖欲墜的領土，並且有更多的潛力讓壞演員進來和騙人。”

The topic sparked further discussion among industry figures. Scott Melker, host of "The Wolf of All Streets" podcast, said he hates to even think about it, but feels that Bitcoin treasury companies pivoting and raising debt to buy Bitcoin could be the next bubble.

該主題引發了行業數字之間的進一步討論。 Scott Melker的主持人Scott Melker播客的主持人說，他討厭甚至考慮一下，但感覺到比特幣財政部公司旋轉並提高債務以購買比特幣可能是下一個泡沫。

Market structure analyst Dave Weisberger agreed there's risk, but took a more measured stance. "Sure. But we have to let bubbles inflate before we get worried about them... spoiler, Bitcoin is NOT near bubble territory."

市場結構分析師戴夫·韋斯伯格（Dave Weisberger）同意存在風險，但採取了更加衡量的立場。 “當然。但是，我們必須讓氣泡膨脹，然後才能擔心它們……破壞者，比特幣不在泡泡區域附近。”

Technical analyst FiboSwanny, a 25-year market veteran, focused on leverage and market structure.

技術分析師Fiboswanny是一名25年的市場退伍軍人，專注於槓桿和市場結構。

"If there’s a bubble forming, it’s likely in the financial instruments and leverage around Bitcoin—like debt-funded treasury purchases, ETFs, derivatives—not in actual Bitcoin itself," he said.

他說：“如果有泡沫形成，它可能是金融工具中的，並且圍繞比特幣（例如債務資助的財政部購買，ETF，衍生品）利用了實際的比特幣本身。”

Lark Davis took a more bearish tone, adding that this is "our GBTC leverage this cycle that will have a horrific unwind with devastating consequences later. Especially the companies buying altcoins."

拉克·戴維斯（Lark Davis）採取了更加看跌的語氣，並補充說：“我們的GBTC在這個週期中利用了這一周期，後來會帶來令人震驚的後果。尤其是購買山寨幣的公司。”

Finally, Swan CEO Cory Klippsten didn'889;t mince words, simply stating that the trend has "already jumped the shark."

最終，天鵝首席執行官科里·克利普斯滕（Cory Klippsten）沒有889; t mince的話，只是說趨勢已經“跳了鯊魚”。

The current landscape includes dozens of public companies with direct Bitcoin holdings, some of which are drawing intense retail speculation.

當前的景觀包括數十家擁有直接比特幣持有的上市公司，其中一些是在引起強烈的零售猜測。

MicroStrategy remains the dominant force, with well over half a million Bitcoin on its books. Other names include Metaplanet in Japan, Semler Scientific (NASDAQ:SMCI), KULR Technology (NASDAQ:KULR), and various new entrants who have completely reorganized their corporate missions around Bitcoin accumulation.

微型策略仍然是主要的力量，其書籍上有超過半百萬的比特幣。其他名稱包括日本的Metaplanet，Semler Scientific（NASDAQ：SMCI），Kulr Technology（NASDAQ：KULR）以及各種新的參賽者，他們對比特幣積累的公司任務進行了完全重組。

Many of these firms are now trading at multi-billion-dollar valuations, far above what their underlying business models would suggest.

這些公司中的許多人現在以數十億美元的估值進行交易，遠遠超過其基本商業模式所暗示的。

The sustainability of the model is also up for debate. Most of these companies rely on issuing new equity at inflated valuations to finance further Bitcoin purchases, creating a reflexive cycle where rising BTC prices inflate share prices, which in turn enable more buying.

該模型的可持續性也需要進行辯論。這些公司中的大多數都依靠在誇大的估值下發行新的股權來為更多的比特幣購買提供資金，從而創造了反思性的周期，在這種情況下，BTC價格上漲會使股價膨脹，從而使更多的購買。

This dynamic works beautifully in a bull market but can quickly reverse in a downturn, especially if the companies' shares begin trading at a deep discount to their Bitcoin holdings, as happened to a lesser extent with GBTC during the last cycle.

這種動態在牛市中效果很好，但可以迅速倒退，尤其是如果公司的股票開始以與其比特幣持有量的高折扣交易，那麼在上一個週期中與GBTC的程度較小。

As the narrative of institutional exposure unfolds, the question of how that exposure is structured becomes increasingly relevant. In simpler terms, as Stack Hodler put it:

隨著機構暴露的敘述的展開，該暴露是如何構成的問題變得越來越相關。從更簡單的角度來看，正如Stack Hodler所說：

"Bitcoin is and always will be the

“比特幣是並且永遠是