比特币（BTC）已悄悄地从风险资产转变为终极避风港

在其大部分历史中，比特币（加密：BTC）被认为是资产上的最终“风险”。它是高度挥发性的，容易出现繁荣的周期。

For much of its history, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been considered the ultimate “risk on” asset. It is highly volatile, and it is prone to boom-and-bust cycles. Many investors and analysts would advise against adding even a smidgen of Bitcoin to a portfolio, due to its unpredictable risk-reward profile.

在其大部分历史中，比特币（加密：BTC）被认为是最终的“风险”资产。它是高度挥发性的，容易出现繁荣的周期。由于其不可预测的风险回报概况，许多投资者和分析师会建议不要将比特币的Smidgen添加到投资组合中。

But something very interesting has happened this year. The longer that global tariff uncertainty persists, the more talk there has been of Bitcoin becoming the ultimate safe haven asset. In short, Bitcoin has seemingly transformed from a “risk on” asset to a “risk off” asset, within an astonishingly short period of time. Let’s take a closer look at what that could mean for your portfolio.

但是今年发生了一些非常有趣的事情。全球关税不确定性持续时间越长，比特币成为最终的避风港资产的谈话越多。简而言之，比特币似乎在短时间内从“风险”资产转变为“风险关闭”资产。让我们仔细看看这对您的投资组合意味着什么。

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Bitcoin’s unique characteristics

比特币的独特特征

The Bitcoin currency is global, digital, decentralized, and non-sovereign. The supply of new Bitcoin is carefully controlled by an algorithm, and no central bank or sovereign government can change this.

比特币货币是全球，数字，分散和非主持人的。新比特币的供应由算法仔细控制，没有中央银行或主权政府可以改变这一点。

Moreover, the total lifetime supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins, and nearly 20 million coins are already in circulation. This inherent scarcity is reinforced every four years, when Bitcoin undergoes a halving event. This event, which is controlled algorithmically, is inherently disinflationary, because it cuts the rate of new Bitcoin supply in half.

此外，比特币的总终身供应限额为2100万个硬币，并且已经在发行近2000万个硬币。当比特币发生一半的事件时，每四年就会加强这种固有的稀缺性。该事件是由算法控制的，它本质上是释放的，因为它将新的比特币供应量减少了一半。

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

Crypto enthusiasts have declared for more than a decade that, as a result of these characteristics, Bitcoin should be considered “digital gold.” And this argument is finally starting to go mainstream. If you dive deep into different Bitcoin valuation models used by top institutional investors, you’ll often find a proxy metric that takes into account the digital gold thesis.

加密爱好者已经宣布了十多年，由于这些特征，比特币应被视为“数字黄金”。这个论点终于开始成为主流。如果您深入研究顶级机构投资者使用的不同比特币估值模型，您通常会发现一个考虑数字黄金论文的代理指标。

For example, in its current Bitcoin valuation model, Ark Invest uses a metric called Digital Gold. This takes into account the total market cap of physical gold, and then projects a “penetration rate” for Bitcoin. In its bull-case scenario, this penetration rate is 60%.

例如，在当前的比特币估值模型中，方舟投资使用了名为Digital Gold的度量。这考虑了实物黄金的总市值，然后预测比特币的“渗透率”。在牛场的情况下，这种渗透率为60％。

Bitcoin’s track record

比特币的往绩记录

Should you really be allocating part of your portfolio to Bitcoin right now as a potential hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainty? If history is any guide, the answer to this question is “yes.”

您是否真的应该将部分投资组合分配给比特币，以作为对经济和地缘政治不确定性的潜在对冲？如果历史记录是任何指南，那么这个问题的答案是“是”。

Last September, BlackRock examined the response of both gold and Bitcoin to a variety of shocks to the global financial system. These shocks included everything from wars to pandemics, as well as a mix of political and macroeconomic crises. BlackRock specifically looked at how gold and Bitcoin held up over both the short run and long run.

去年9月，贝莱克（Blackrock）研究了黄金和比特币对各种冲击对全球金融体系的反应。这些冲击包括从战争到大流行的一切，以及政治和宏观经济危机的混合。贝莱德专门研究了黄金和比特币如何在短期和长期奔跑中固定。

And the results might surprise you. In 5 of the 6 cases examined by BlackRock, Bitcoin outperformed gold over the long run. Gold typically performs very well in the very short term, but Bitcoin eventually catches up, narrowing the performance gap.

结果可能会让您感到惊讶。从长远来看，在贝莱德检查的6个案例中，有5例比比特币优于黄金。黄金通常在短期内表现出色，但比特币最终赶上了，从而缩小了性能差距。

And that could be what we are seeing now. As soon as new tariffs were announced, the knee-jerk reaction of many investors was to move their money into gold. As a result, the price of gold has been soaring all year. But watch out for Bitcoin: Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin is up 25%, and the performance gap with gold appears to be narrowing.

那可能就是我们现在所看到的。一旦宣布新的关税，许多投资者的膝盖反应就是将钱转移到黄金中。结果，黄金的价格一直在飙升。但是请注意比特币：在过去的30天中，比特币增长了25％，金色的性能差距似乎正在缩小。

What could the price impact be for Bitcoin?

价格对比特币有什么影响？

What’s really exciting is how this change in investor perception could affect the future upside potential of Bitcoin. One popular way to figure this out is to take the total market cap of gold and think of this as the “store of value” market for investors. You can then make a prediction about how much of this “store of value” market that Bitcoin will eventually capture.

真正令人兴奋的是，这种投资者看法的变化如何影响比特币的未来上升潜力。弄清楚这一点的一种流行方式是将黄金的总市值占据，并将其视为投资者的“价值存储”市场。然后，您可以预测比特币最终将捕获的“价值存储”市场中的多少。

So let’s do the math. The total market cap of gold is estimated to be $20 trillion. If we assume that Bitcoin will account for 50% of the “store of value” market, then we can use a scaling factor of 0.5 to arrive at an implied valuation of $10 trillion for Bitcoin. When we divide that valuation by the number of coins outstanding (approximately 20 million), that leads to a theoretical Bitcoin price target of $500,000.

因此，让我们进行数学。黄金的总市值估计为20万亿美元。如果我们假设比特币将占“价值存储”市场的50％，那么我们可以使用0.5的比例系数来达到比特币的暗示估值。当我们将该估值除以未偿还的硬币数量（约2000万个），这将导致理论上的比特币目标价值为500,000美元。

Of course, there are no guarantees here that Bitcoin will ever hit such a ridiculously high price target, and the timeline could be long. Yet a price target of $500,000 might actually be on the low side. There are plenty of price forecasts out there suggesting that Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2030. In fact, Ark Invest now thinks Bitcoin might hit $2.4 million, and a big part of this is due to the digital gold thesis.

当然，这里没有保证比特币会达到如此荒谬的价格目标，并且时间表可能很长。然而，实际上可能是500,000美元的目标目标。那里有很多价格预测，表明比特币到2030年可能达到100万美元。实际上，方舟投资现在认为比特币可能达到240万美元，其中很大一部分是由于数字黄金论文所致。

If the current tariff situation worsens, and money continues to flow out of dollar-denominated assets, some of that money is almost certainly going to flow into Bitcoin. So, in a strange and surprising way, tariff

如果当前的关税情况恶化，并且金钱继续从以美元计价的资产流出，那么其中一些钱几乎可以肯定会流向比特币。因此，以一种奇怪而令人惊讶的方式关税