比特币（加密：BTC）已悄悄地从“对”资产的“风险”转变为“风险关闭”资产

在其大部分历史中，比特币（加密：BTC）被认为是资产上的最终“风险”。它是高度挥发性的，容易出现繁荣的周期。

The price of (CRYPTO: BTC) has come a long way since the beginning of the year. After falling to lows of around $15,000 in March, the cryptocurrency has since rebounded to levels above $50,000.

自今年年初以来（加密：BTC）的价格已经很长了。在3月下降到15,000美元左右的低点之后，加密货币从那以后的水平超过50,000美元。

At the same time, the global economy has been hit by a series of new shocks, including the threat of new tariffs on Chinese goods. The announcement of these tariffs in May sparked a massive rally in the price of gold, which many investors view as the ultimate safe haven asset.

同时，全球经济受到一系列新的冲击，包括对中国商品的新关税的威胁。这些关税在5月的宣布引发了大量的黄金，许多投资者将其视为最终的避风港资产。

However, there is another asset class that could be even better suited to serve as a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainty: Bitcoin.

但是，还有另一个资产类别可以更适合于对冲经济和地缘政治不确定性：比特币。

The unique characteristics of Bitcoin

比特币的独特特征

The Bitcoin currency is global, digital, decentralized, and non-sovereign. The supply of new Bitcoin is carefully controlled by an algorithm, and no central bank or sovereign government can change this.

比特币货币是全球，数字，分散和非主持人的。新比特币的供应由算法仔细控制，没有中央银行或主权政府可以改变这一点。

Moreover, the total lifetime supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins, and nearly 20 million coins are already in circulation. This inherent scarcity is further reduced every four years, when Bitcoin undergoes a halving event. This event, which is also controlled algorithmically, is inherently disinflationary, because it cuts the rate of new Bitcoin supply in half.

此外，比特币的总终身供应限额为2100万个硬币，并且已经在发行近2000万个硬币。当比特币发生一半的事件时，这种固有的稀缺性每四年进一步减少。该事件也是从算法上控制的，它本质上是释放的，因为它将新的比特币供应量减少了一半。

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

Crypto enthusiasts have declared for more than a decade that, as a result of these characteristics, Bitcoin should be considered “digital gold.” And this argument is finally starting to go mainstream. If you dive deep enough into different Bitcoin valuation models used by top institutional investors, you’ll often find a proxy metric that takes into account the digital gold thesis.

加密爱好者已经宣布了十多年，由于这些特征，比特币应被视为“数字黄金”。这个论点终于开始成为主流。如果您深入研究了顶级机构投资者使用的不同比特币评估模型，您通常会发现一个考虑数字黄金论文的代理指标。

For example, in its current Bitcoin valuation model, Ark Invest uses a metric called Digital Gold. This takes into account the total market cap of physical gold, and then projects a “penetration rate” for Bitcoin. In its bull-case scenario, this penetration rate is 60%.

例如，在当前的比特币估值模型中，方舟投资使用了名为Digital Gold的度量。这考虑了实物黄金的总市值，然后预测比特币的“渗透率”。在牛场的情况下，这种渗透率为60％。

This would leave the Bitcoin price at around $2.4 million by 2030, which might sound like a ridiculously high price target. But it's not as though such price targets have never been mentioned before. In fact, a price target of $500,000 might actually be on the low side. There are plenty of price forecasts out there suggesting that Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2030.

到2030年，这将使比特币价格约为240万美元，这听起来可能是一个荒谬的价格目标。但这似乎不是以前从未提及过这样的目标目标。实际上，实际上可能是500,000美元的目标目标。那里有很多价格预测，表明比特币到2030年可能达到100万美元。

This would also leave Bitcoin with a market cap of around $50 trillion, which is about double the current size of the U.S. stock market.

这也将使比特币的市值约为500万亿美元，这是美国股市目前规模的两倍。

Of course, there are no guarantees here that Bitcoin will ever hit such a high price target, and the time frame could be long. But if we assume that Bitcoin will account for 50% of the “store of value” market, then we can use a scaling factor of 0.5 to arrive at an implied valuation of $10 trillion for Bitcoin. When we divide that valuation by the number of coins outstanding (approximately 20 million), that leads to a theoretical Bitcoin price target of $500,000.

当然，这里没有保证比特币会达到如此高的价格目标，并且时间范围可能很长。但是，如果我们假设比特币将占“价值存储”市场的50％，那么我们可以使用0.5的比例系数来获得比特币的暗示估值。当我们将该估值除以未偿还的硬币数量（约2000万个），这将导致理论上的比特币目标价值为500,000美元。

This is also a multiple of the price target suggested by macroeconomic analysis. For example, in a recent note, economists at Standard Chartered pointed out that the dollar value of the world's foreign exchange reserves currently stands at around $10 trillion.

这也是宏观经济分析建议的目标目标的倍数。例如，在最近的一份说明中，标准特许的经济学家指出，世界外汇储备的美元价值目前约为10万亿美元。

Now, if we assume that a portion of these reserves, say, $5 trillion, might shift into cryptocurrencies as a hedge against dollar-denominated market risk, we can arrive at a price target for Bitcoin of around $250,000. This price target is valid as long as the aggregate market cap of the major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, etc.) converges to about 20 million coins.

现在，如果我们假设其中一部分这些储备金（例如5万亿美元）可能会转向加密货币作为对冲以美元计价的市场风险的对冲，那么我们可以将比特币的目标价格定为25万美元。只要主要加密货币（比特币，以太坊，Litecoin等）汇聚到大约2000万个硬币的总市值，这个价格目标是有效的。

If the current tariff situation worsens, and money continues to flow out of dollar-denominated assets, some of that money is almost certainly going to flow into Bitcoin.

如果当前的关税情况恶化，并且金钱继续从以美元计价的资产流出，那么其中一些钱几乎可以肯定会流向比特币。

So, in a strange and surprising way, tariff uncertainty might continue to push the price of Bitcoin higher this year. The cryptocurrency is finally earning its proposed status as an effective hedge against dollar-based market risks.

因此，以一种奇怪而令人惊讶的方式，关税的不确定性可能会继续推动今年更高的比特币价格。加密货币终于赢得了对基于美元市场风险的有效对冲的拟议地位。