比特币的长期持有人是否开始出售？

经过一段时间的波动之后，比特币现在收回了100,000美元的成绩，并达到了新的历史最高水平，向市场注入了新的信心。

After a period of volatility, Bitcoin has now reclaimed the $100,000 mark and hit a new all-time high, injecting new confidence into the market. But as prices rise, a key question also arises: Are Bitcoin's most experienced and successful holders - the long-term holders - starting to sell? This article will analyze what on-chain data reveals about the behavior of long-term holders and whether recent profit-taking is a cause for concern or simply a healthy part of Bitcoin’s market cycles.

经过一段时间的波动之后，比特币现在收回了100,000美元的成绩，并达到了新的历史最高水平，向市场注入了新的信心。但是随着价格上涨，也出现了一个关键问题：比特币最有经验和最成功的持有人 - 长期持有人 - 开始销售吗？本文将分析链上数据揭示的有关长期持有人行为的揭示，以及最近的获利是引起人们关注的原因，还是仅仅是比特币市场周期的健康部分。

A closer look at Spent Output Profit Rate (SOPR) provides instant insight into realized profits across the network. Focusing on recent weeks, we can clearly observe an upward trend in profit realization. The clustering of green bars suggests that a significant number of investors are indeed selling Bitcoin to realize profits, especially after the price rose from the $74,000–75,000 range to a new high of over $100,000.

仔细研究了支出的产出利润率（SOPR），可以立即洞悉整个网络中实现的利润。关注最近几周，我们可以清楚地观察到利润实现的上升趋势。绿色酒吧的聚集表明，大量投资者确实正在出售比特币以实现利润，尤其是在价格从74,000-75,000美元范围内上升到新高点以上的100,000美元以上。

However, while this may raise concerns about overhead resistance in the short term, it must be understood in the broader on-chain context. This behavior is not uncommon in bull markets and cannot be used alone to signal a cycle top.

但是，尽管这可能会引起人们对短期内耐药性的担忧，但必须在更广泛的链环境中理解。在牛市中，这种行为并不少见，不能单独使用以发出周期顶部的信号。

Long-term holder supply, which refers to the total amount of Bitcoin held by wallets that have held it for more than 155 days, has continued to rise despite the surge in prices. This trend does not necessarily mean that new buying is currently taking place, but rather indicates that Bitcoin is "aging" into long-term holdings over time, rather than being moved or sold.

长期持有人的供应是指钱包持有的比特币的总量超过155天，尽管价格上涨，但仍在继续上升。这种趋势并不一定意味着目前正在发生新的购买，而是表明比特币随着时间的流逝而不是被搬迁或出售。

In other words, many investors who bought in late 2024 or early 2025 are still holding onto their coins and are turning into long-term holders. This is a healthy dynamic that is typical of the early or mid-stages of a bull market that has yet to show signs of mass distribution.

换句话说，许多在2024年末或2025年初购买的投资者仍在坚持自己的硬币，并正在变成长期持有人。这是一种健康的动态，是牛市早期或中期的典型动态，尚未显示出质量分布的迹象。

To further drill down, we used HODL Waves data, which is stratified by the age of wallets. Focusing on wallets that have held their coins for 6 months or longer, we found that more than 70% of the Bitcoin supply is currently controlled by medium- to long-term holders.

为了进一步钻探，我们使用了hodl波数据，该数据按钱包时代进行了分层。专注于将硬币持有6个月或更长时间的钱包，我们发现比特币供应中有70％以上是由中型到长期持有人控制的。

Interestingly, while this ratio is still high, it has begun to decline slightly, indicating that some long-term holders may be selling, even as the long-term holder supply is still growing. The main driver of the growth in long-term supply seems to be the gradual "aging" of short-term holders into the 155-day holding range, rather than large-scale buying by new funds.

有趣的是，尽管该比率仍然很高，但它已经开始略有下降，表明某些长期持有人可能正在销售，即使长期持有人的供应仍在增长。长期供应增长的主要驱动力似乎是短期持有人逐渐“老化”到155天的持有范围内，而不是新基金的大规模购买。

Using raw data from the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, we analyzed the rate of change in long-term holder balances by wallet age. When this indicator drops significantly, it historically often coincides with cycle tops. Conversely, when this indicator rises sharply, it often corresponds to market bottoms and deep accumulation phases.

使用来自比特币杂志Pro API的原始数据，我们分析了钱包年龄长期持有人余额的变化率。当该指标大大下降时，历史上通常与循环顶部一致。相反，当此指标急剧上升时，通常对应于市场底部和深层积累阶段。

To improve the accuracy of these signals, the data can be segmented more finely by comparing recent holders (0–1 month) to medium-term holders (1–5 years). This comparison of the age distribution of coins can provide more frequent and real-time insights into distribution behavior.

为了提高这些信号的准确性，可以通过将最近的持有人（0-1个月）与中期持有人（1 - 5年）进行比较，可以更细微地细分数据。硬币年龄分布的这种比较可以为分布行为提供更频繁和实时的见解。

We found that when the ratio of 1-5 year holders to new holders drops sharply, it historically coincides with Bitcoin price tops. Conversely, when the ratio rises rapidly, meaning more Bitcoin flows into the hands of more experienced investors, it is often a precursor to major price increases.

我们发现，当1 - 5年持有人与新持有人的比率急剧下降时，它历史上与比特币价格上涨一致。相反，当比率迅速上升时，意味着更多的比特币流入了经验丰富的投资者的手中时，它通常是大价上涨的先驱。

Changes in long-term investor behavior are one of the most effective ways to assess market sentiment and the sustainability of price fluctuations. Historical data shows that long-term holders often outperform short-term traders in terms of profitability by buying in panic and holding for the long term. By analyzing the age distribution structure of Bitcoin, we can more accurately capture market tops and bottoms without relying on price movements or short-term sentiment.

长期投资者行为的变化是评估市场情绪和价格波动的可持续性的最有效方法之一。历史数据表明，长期持有人通常通过恐慌和长期持有而优于短期交易者的盈利能力。通过分析比特币的年龄分布结构，我们可以更准确地捕获市场上衣和底层，而无需依靠价格变动或短期情绪。

At present, there is only slight selling by long-term holders, far from the scale at the top of previous cycles. There is indeed some profit taking, but the pace of its occurrence seems to be completely controllable and belongs to a healthy market environment.

目前，长期持有人只有轻微的销售，远非以前的周期顶部的规模。确实有一些利润，但是其发生的步伐似乎完全可以控制，并且属于健康的市场环境。

Considering the current bull market phase and the participation of both institutional and retail investors, the data suggests that we are still in a structurally strong phase and there is still room for prices to rise further amid continued inflows of new funds.

考虑到当前的牛市阶段以及机构和散户投资者的参与，数据表明我们仍处于结构强大的阶段，并且在持续的新资金流入的过程中，价格仍然可以进一步上涨。