比特币的长期持有人是否开始出售？

在2025年开始动荡的开始之后，比特币现在收回了100,000美元的成绩，将历史最高的新高和重新注入了新的信心。

After a volatile start to 2025, Bitcoin has now reclaimed the $100,000 mark, setting a new all-time high and injecting renewed confidence into the market. But as prices soar, a critical question arises: are some of Bitcoin’s most experienced and successful holders, the long-term investors, beginning to take profits and distribute their coins, or is the bull market still largely intact?

在2025年开始动荡的开始之后，比特币现在收回了100,000美元的成绩，将历史最高的新高和重新注入了新的信心。但是，随着价格飙升，出现了一个关键的问题：比特币最有经验和成功的持有人，长期投资者，开始获利并分发硬币，还是牛市基本上完全完好无损？

In this analysis, we'll delve into what on-chain data reveals about long-term holder behavior and whether recent profit-taking should be a cause for concern, or simply a healthy part of Bitcoin’s market cycle.

在此分析中，我们将深入研究链上数据揭示的有关长期持有人行为的揭示，以及最近的利润是否应该成为关注的原因，还是仅仅是比特币市场周期的健康部分。

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) provides immediate insight into realized profit across the network. Zooming in on recent weeks, we can observe a clear uptick in profit realization. Clusters of green bars indicate that a noticeable number of investors are selling BTC for profit, especially following the price rally from the $74,000-$75,000 range to new highs above $100,000.

用过的产出利润率（SOPR）可以立即深入了解整个网络中实现的利润。缩放最近几周，我们可以观察到利润实现的清晰提升。绿色酒吧集群表明，有大量的投资者正在出售BTC以谋取利润，尤其是在价格从74,000美元至75,000美元范围内的价格集会到超过100,000美元以上的新高点之后。

However, while this might raise short-term concerns about potential overhead resistance, it’s crucial to frame this in the broader on-chain context. This isn’t unusual behavior in bull markets and does not, on its own, signal a cycle peak.

但是，尽管这可能引起人们对潜在的高架阻力的短期担忧，但在更广泛的链环境中构架这一点至关重要。在牛市中，这不是异常的行为，也不是自行表示周期峰。

The Long-Term Holder Supply, defined as the total amount of Bitcoin held by addresses for at least 155 days, continues to climb even as prices surge. This metric doesn’t necessarily mean fresh accumulation is occurring now, but rather that coins are aging into long-term status without being moved or sold. In other words, many investors who bought in late 2024 or early 2025 are holding strong, transitioning into long-term status.

长期持有人的供应定义为至少155天的地址持有的比特币总量，即使价格上涨也继续攀升。该指标并不一定意味着现在正在发生新鲜积累，而是硬币正在长期衰老而不会被移动或出售。换句话说，许多在2024年末或2025年初购买的投资者都保持着强大的状态，转变为长期地位。

This is a healthy dynamic typical of the earlier to mid-stages of bull markets and isn’t yet indicative of widespread distribution.

这是牛市早期至中期的健康动态，尚未表明广泛的分布。

To delve deeper, we use HODL Waves data, which breaks down BTC holdings by wallet age bands. When isolating wallets holding BTC for 6 months or more, we find that over 70% of the Bitcoin supply is currently held by mid to long-term participants.

为了深入研究，我们使用HODL Waves数据，该数据通过钱包年龄段分解了BTC持有量。当隔离持有BTC 6个月或更长时间的钱包时，我们发现目前在长期到长期参与者中持有超过70％的比特币供应。

Interestingly, while this number remains high, it has started to decrease slightly, suggesting that a portion of long-term holders may be selling even as the long-term holder supply increases. The primary driver of the long-term holder supply growth appears to be short-term holders aging into the 155+ day bracket, not fresh accumulation or large-scale buying.

有趣的是，尽管这个数字仍然很高，但它已经开始略有下降，这表明即使长期持有人的供应增加，一部分长期持有人也可能正在销售。长期持有人供应增长的主要驱动力似乎是短期持有人衰老到155多天以上，而不是新鲜的积累或大规模购买。

Using raw Bitcoin Magazine Pro API data, we examined the rate of change in long-term holder balances, categorized by wallet age. When this metric trends downward significantly, it has historically coincided with cycle peaks. Conversely, when it spikes upward, it has often marked market bottoms and periods of deep accumulation.

使用Raw Bitcoin Magazine Pro API数据，我们检查了按钱包年龄分类的长期持有人余额的变化率。当这种度量趋势显着下降时，历史上与周期峰相吻合。相反，当它向上升高时，它通常标志着市场的底层和深度积累的时期。

To enhance the accuracy of these signals, the data can be sliced more precisely by comparing very recent entrants (0-1 month holders) against those holding BTC for 1-5 years. This age band comparison provides more frequent and real-time insights into distribution patterns.

为了提高这些信号的准确性，可以通过比较最近的参赛者（0-1个月持有人）与持有BTC的持有BTC 1 - 5年的那些可以更精确地切割数据。这种年龄段比较提供了对分布模式的更频繁和实时见解。

We find that sharp drops in the ratio of 1-5 year holders relative to newer participants have historically aligned with Bitcoin tops, whereas rapid increases in the ratio signify that more BTC is flowing into the hands of seasoned investors, which is often a precursor to major price rallies.

我们发现，相对于新参与者的1 - 5年持有人的比率急剧下降与比特币上衣保持一致，而比率的迅速增加表示，更多的BTC正在流入经验丰富的投资者手中，这通常是与主要价格集会的前提。

Ultimately, monitoring long-term investor behavior is one of the most effective ways to gauge market sentiment and the sustainability of price movements. Long-term holders historically outperform short-term traders by buying during fear and holding through volatility. By examining the age-based distribution of BTC, we can gain a clearer view of potential tops and bottoms in the market, without relying solely on price action or short-term sentiment.

最终，监控长期投资者的行为是衡量市场情绪和价格变动可持续性的最有效方法之一。长期持有人历史上通过在恐惧中购买和通过波动性持有来优于短期交易者。通过检查基于年龄的BTC分布，我们可以更清晰地了解市场上潜在的上衣和底部，而无需仅依靠价格行动或短期情绪。

As it stands, there is only a minor level of distribution among long-term holders, nowhere near the scale that historically signals cycle peaks. Profit-taking is occurring, yes, but at a pace that appears entirely sustainable and typical of a healthy market environment. Given the current stage of the bull cycle and the positioning of institutional and retail participants, the data suggests we are still within a structurally strong phase, with room for further price growth as new capital flows in.

就目前而言，长期持有人之间只有很小的分布水平，远远不到历史上标志性周期峰的规模。是的，正在发生利润，但是以健康的市场环境似乎完全可持续且典型的速度。鉴于牛周期的当前阶段以及机构和零售参与者的定位，数据表明我们仍处于结构上强大的阶段，随着新资本流入的发展，我们仍在进一步的价格增长。

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