比特幣的長期持有人是否開始出售？

在2025年開始動蕩的開始之後，比特幣現在收回了100,000美元的成績，將歷史最高的新高和重新註入了新的信心。

After a volatile start to 2025, Bitcoin has now reclaimed the $100,000 mark, setting a new all-time high and injecting renewed confidence into the market. But as prices soar, a critical question arises: are some of Bitcoin’s most experienced and successful holders, the long-term investors, beginning to take profits and distribute their coins, or is the bull market still largely intact?

在2025年開始動蕩的開始之後，比特幣現在收回了100,000美元的成績，將歷史最高的新高和重新註入了新的信心。但是，隨著價格飆升，出現了一個關鍵的問題：比特幣最有經驗和成功的持有人，長期投資者，開始獲利並分發硬幣，還是牛市基本上完全完好無損？

In this analysis, we'll delve into what on-chain data reveals about long-term holder behavior and whether recent profit-taking should be a cause for concern, or simply a healthy part of Bitcoin’s market cycle.

在此分析中，我們將深入研究鏈上數據揭示的有關長期持有人行為的揭示，以及最近的利潤是否應該成為關注的原因，還是僅僅是比特幣市場週期的健康部分。

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) provides immediate insight into realized profit across the network. Zooming in on recent weeks, we can observe a clear uptick in profit realization. Clusters of green bars indicate that a noticeable number of investors are selling BTC for profit, especially following the price rally from the $74,000-$75,000 range to new highs above $100,000.

用過的產出利潤率（SOPR）可以立即深入了解整個網絡中實現的利潤。縮放最近幾週，我們可以觀察到利潤實現的清晰提升。綠色酒吧集群表明，有大量的投資者正在出售BTC以謀取利潤，尤其是在價格從74,000美元至75,000美元範圍內的價格集會到超過100,000美元以上的新高點之後。

However, while this might raise short-term concerns about potential overhead resistance, it’s crucial to frame this in the broader on-chain context. This isn’t unusual behavior in bull markets and does not, on its own, signal a cycle peak.

但是，儘管這可能引起人們對潛在的高架阻力的短期擔憂，但在更廣泛的鏈環境中構架這一點至關重要。在牛市中，這不是異常的行為，也不是自行表示週期峰。

The Long-Term Holder Supply, defined as the total amount of Bitcoin held by addresses for at least 155 days, continues to climb even as prices surge. This metric doesn’t necessarily mean fresh accumulation is occurring now, but rather that coins are aging into long-term status without being moved or sold. In other words, many investors who bought in late 2024 or early 2025 are holding strong, transitioning into long-term status.

長期持有人的供應定義為至少155天的地址持有的比特幣總量，即使價格上漲也繼續攀升。該指標並不一定意味著現在正在發生新鮮積累，而是硬幣正在長期衰老而不會被移動或出售。換句話說，許多在2024年末或2025年初購買的投資者都保持著強大的狀態，轉變為長期地位。

This is a healthy dynamic typical of the earlier to mid-stages of bull markets and isn’t yet indicative of widespread distribution.

這是牛市早期至中期的健康動態，尚未表明廣泛的分佈。

To delve deeper, we use HODL Waves data, which breaks down BTC holdings by wallet age bands. When isolating wallets holding BTC for 6 months or more, we find that over 70% of the Bitcoin supply is currently held by mid to long-term participants.

為了深入研究，我們使用HODL Waves數據，該數據通過錢包年齡段分解了BTC持有量。當隔離持有BTC 6個月或更長時間的錢包時，我們發現目前在長期到長期參與者中持有超過70％的比特幣供應。

Interestingly, while this number remains high, it has started to decrease slightly, suggesting that a portion of long-term holders may be selling even as the long-term holder supply increases. The primary driver of the long-term holder supply growth appears to be short-term holders aging into the 155+ day bracket, not fresh accumulation or large-scale buying.

有趣的是，儘管這個數字仍然很高，但它已經開始略有下降，這表明即使長期持有人的供應增加，一部分長期持有人也可能正在銷售。長期持有人供應增長的主要驅動力似乎是短期持有人衰老到155多天以上，而不是新鮮的積累或大規模購買。

Using raw Bitcoin Magazine Pro API data, we examined the rate of change in long-term holder balances, categorized by wallet age. When this metric trends downward significantly, it has historically coincided with cycle peaks. Conversely, when it spikes upward, it has often marked market bottoms and periods of deep accumulation.

使用Raw Bitcoin Magazine Pro API數據，我們檢查了按錢包年齡分類的長期持有人餘額的變化率。當這種度量趨勢顯著下降時，歷史上與週期峰相吻合。相反，當它向上升高時，它通常標誌著市場的底層和深度積累的時期。

To enhance the accuracy of these signals, the data can be sliced more precisely by comparing very recent entrants (0-1 month holders) against those holding BTC for 1-5 years. This age band comparison provides more frequent and real-time insights into distribution patterns.

為了提高這些信號的準確性，可以通過比較最近的參賽者（0-1個月持有人）與持有BTC的持有BTC 1 - 5年的那些可以更精確地切割數據。這種年齡段比較提供了對分佈模式的更頻繁和實時見解。

We find that sharp drops in the ratio of 1-5 year holders relative to newer participants have historically aligned with Bitcoin tops, whereas rapid increases in the ratio signify that more BTC is flowing into the hands of seasoned investors, which is often a precursor to major price rallies.

我們發現，相對於新參與者的1 - 5年持有人的比率急劇下降與比特幣上衣保持一致，而比率的迅速增加表示，更多的BTC正在流入經驗豐富的投資者手中，這通常是與主要價格集會的前提。

Ultimately, monitoring long-term investor behavior is one of the most effective ways to gauge market sentiment and the sustainability of price movements. Long-term holders historically outperform short-term traders by buying during fear and holding through volatility. By examining the age-based distribution of BTC, we can gain a clearer view of potential tops and bottoms in the market, without relying solely on price action or short-term sentiment.

最終，監控長期投資者的行為是衡量市場情緒和價格變動可持續性的最有效方法之一。長期持有人歷史上通過在恐懼中購買和通過波動性持有來優於短期交易者。通過檢查基於年齡的BTC分佈，我們可以更清晰地了解市場上潛在的上衣和底部，而無需僅依靠價格行動或短期情緒。

As it stands, there is only a minor level of distribution among long-term holders, nowhere near the scale that historically signals cycle peaks. Profit-taking is occurring, yes, but at a pace that appears entirely sustainable and typical of a healthy market environment. Given the current stage of the bull cycle and the positioning of institutional and retail participants, the data suggests we are still within a structurally strong phase, with room for further price growth as new capital flows in.

就目前而言，長期持有人之間只有很小的分佈水平，遠遠不到歷史上標誌性週期峰的規模。是的，正在發生利潤，但是以健康的市場環境似乎完全可持續且典型的速度。鑑於牛週期的當前階段以及機構和零售參與者的定位，數據表明我們仍處於結構上強大的階段，隨著新資本流入的發展，我們仍在進一步的價格增長。

For more deep-dive research, technical indicators, real-time market alerts, and access to a growing community of analysts, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

有關更深入的研究，技術指標，實時市場警報以及訪問不斷增長的分析師社區的訪問，請訪問Bitcoinmagazinepro.com。