比特幣的長期持有人是否開始出售？

經過一段時間的波動之後，比特幣現在收回了100,000美元的成績，並達到了新的歷史最高水平，向市場注入了新的信心。

After a period of volatility, Bitcoin has now reclaimed the $100,000 mark and hit a new all-time high, injecting new confidence into the market. But as prices rise, a key question also arises: Are Bitcoin's most experienced and successful holders - the long-term holders - starting to sell? This article will analyze what on-chain data reveals about the behavior of long-term holders and whether recent profit-taking is a cause for concern or simply a healthy part of Bitcoin’s market cycles.

經過一段時間的波動之後，比特幣現在收回了100,000美元的成績，並達到了新的歷史最高水平，向市場注入了新的信心。但是隨著價格上漲，也出現了一個關鍵問題：比特幣最有經驗和最成功的持有人 - 長期持有人 - 開始出售嗎？本文將分析鏈上數據揭示的有關長期持有人行為的揭示，以及最近的獲利是引起人們關注的原因，還是僅僅是比特幣市場週期的健康部分。

A closer look at Spent Output Profit Rate (SOPR) provides instant insight into realized profits across the network. Focusing on recent weeks, we can clearly observe an upward trend in profit realization. The clustering of green bars suggests that a significant number of investors are indeed selling Bitcoin to realize profits, especially after the price rose from the $74,000–75,000 range to a new high of over $100,000.

仔細研究了支出的產出利潤率（SOPR），可以立即洞悉整個網絡中實現的利潤。關注最近幾週，我們可以清楚地觀察到利潤實現的上升趨勢。綠色酒吧的聚集表明，大量投資者確實正在出售比特幣以實現利潤，尤其是在價格從74,000-75,000美元範圍內上升到新高點以上的100,000美元以上。

However, while this may raise concerns about overhead resistance in the short term, it must be understood in the broader on-chain context. This behavior is not uncommon in bull markets and cannot be used alone to signal a cycle top.

但是，儘管這可能會引起人們對短期內耐藥性的擔憂，但必須在更廣泛的鏈環境中理解。在牛市中，這種行為並不少見，不能單獨使用以發出週期頂部的信號。

Long-term holder supply, which refers to the total amount of Bitcoin held by wallets that have held it for more than 155 days, has continued to rise despite the surge in prices. This trend does not necessarily mean that new buying is currently taking place, but rather indicates that Bitcoin is "aging" into long-term holdings over time, rather than being moved or sold.

長期持有人的供應是指錢包持有的比特幣的總量超過155天，儘管價格上漲，但仍在繼續上升。這種趨勢並不一定意味著目前正在發生新的購買，而是表明比特幣隨著時間的流逝而不是被搬遷或出售。

In other words, many investors who bought in late 2024 or early 2025 are still holding onto their coins and are turning into long-term holders. This is a healthy dynamic that is typical of the early or mid-stages of a bull market that has yet to show signs of mass distribution.

換句話說，許多在2024年末或2025年初購買的投資者仍在堅持自己的硬幣，並正在變成長期持有人。這是一種健康的動態，是牛市早期或中期的典型動態，尚未顯示出質量分佈的跡象。

To further drill down, we used HODL Waves data, which is stratified by the age of wallets. Focusing on wallets that have held their coins for 6 months or longer, we found that more than 70% of the Bitcoin supply is currently controlled by medium- to long-term holders.

為了進一步鑽探，我們使用了hodl波數據，該數據按錢包時代進行了分層。專注於將硬幣持有6個月或更長時間的錢包，我們發現比特幣供應中有70％以上是由中型到長期持有人控制的。

Interestingly, while this ratio is still high, it has begun to decline slightly, indicating that some long-term holders may be selling, even as the long-term holder supply is still growing. The main driver of the growth in long-term supply seems to be the gradual "aging" of short-term holders into the 155-day holding range, rather than large-scale buying by new funds.

有趣的是，儘管該比率仍然很高，但它已經開始略有下降，表明某些長期持有人可能正在銷售，即使長期持有人的供應仍在增長。長期供應增長的主要驅動力似乎是短期持有人逐漸“老化”到155天的持有範圍內，而不是新基金的大規模購買。

Using raw data from the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, we analyzed the rate of change in long-term holder balances by wallet age. When this indicator drops significantly, it historically often coincides with cycle tops. Conversely, when this indicator rises sharply, it often corresponds to market bottoms and deep accumulation phases.

使用來自比特幣雜誌Pro API的原始數據，我們分析了錢包年齡長期持有人餘額的變化率。當該指標大大下降時，歷史上通常與循環頂部一致。相反，當此指標急劇上升時，通常對應於市場底部和深層積累階段。

To improve the accuracy of these signals, the data can be segmented more finely by comparing recent holders (0–1 month) to medium-term holders (1–5 years). This comparison of the age distribution of coins can provide more frequent and real-time insights into distribution behavior.

為了提高這些信號的準確性，可以通過將最近的持有人（0-1個月）與中期持有人（1 - 5年）進行比較，可以更細微地細分數據。硬幣年齡分佈的這種比較可以為分佈行為提供更頻繁和實時的見解。

We found that when the ratio of 1-5 year holders to new holders drops sharply, it historically coincides with Bitcoin price tops. Conversely, when the ratio rises rapidly, meaning more Bitcoin flows into the hands of more experienced investors, it is often a precursor to major price increases.

我們發現，當1 - 5年持有人與新持有人的比率急劇下降時，它歷史上與比特幣價格上漲一致。相反，當比率迅速上升時，意味著更多的比特幣流入了經驗豐富的投資者的手中時，它通常是大價上漲的先驅。

Changes in long-term investor behavior are one of the most effective ways to assess market sentiment and the sustainability of price fluctuations. Historical data shows that long-term holders often outperform short-term traders in terms of profitability by buying in panic and holding for the long term. By analyzing the age distribution structure of Bitcoin, we can more accurately capture market tops and bottoms without relying on price movements or short-term sentiment.

長期投資者行為的變化是評估市場情緒和價格波動的可持續性的最有效方法之一。歷史數據表明，長期持有人通常通過恐慌和長期持有而優於短期交易者的盈利能力。通過分析比特幣的年齡分佈結構，我們可以更準確地捕獲市場上衣和底層，而無需依靠價格變動或短期情緒。

At present, there is only slight selling by long-term holders, far from the scale at the top of previous cycles. There is indeed some profit taking, but the pace of its occurrence seems to be completely controllable and belongs to a healthy market environment.

目前，長期持有人只有輕微的銷售，遠非以前的周期頂部的規模。確實有一些利潤，但是其發生的步伐似乎完全可以控制，並且屬於健康的市場環境。

Considering the current bull market phase and the participation of both institutional and retail investors, the data suggests that we are still in a structurally strong phase and there is still room for prices to rise further amid continued inflows of new funds.

考慮到當前的牛市階段以及機構和散戶投資者的參與，數據表明我們仍處於結構強大的階段，並且在持續的新資金流入的過程中，價格仍然可以進一步上漲。