Are Bitcoin's Long-Term Holders Starting to Sell?

After a period of volatility, Bitcoin has now reclaimed the $100,000 mark and hit a new all-time high, injecting new confidence into the market.

After a period of volatility, Bitcoin has now reclaimed the $100,000 mark and hit a new all-time high, injecting new confidence into the market. But as prices rise, a key question also arises: Are Bitcoin's most experienced and successful holders - the long-term holders - starting to sell? This article will analyze what on-chain data reveals about the behavior of long-term holders and whether recent profit-taking is a cause for concern or simply a healthy part of Bitcoin’s market cycles.

A closer look at Spent Output Profit Rate (SOPR) provides instant insight into realized profits across the network. Focusing on recent weeks, we can clearly observe an upward trend in profit realization. The clustering of green bars suggests that a significant number of investors are indeed selling Bitcoin to realize profits, especially after the price rose from the $74,000–75,000 range to a new high of over $100,000.

However, while this may raise concerns about overhead resistance in the short term, it must be understood in the broader on-chain context. This behavior is not uncommon in bull markets and cannot be used alone to signal a cycle top.

Long-term holder supply, which refers to the total amount of Bitcoin held by wallets that have held it for more than 155 days, has continued to rise despite the surge in prices. This trend does not necessarily mean that new buying is currently taking place, but rather indicates that Bitcoin is "aging" into long-term holdings over time, rather than being moved or sold.

In other words, many investors who bought in late 2024 or early 2025 are still holding onto their coins and are turning into long-term holders. This is a healthy dynamic that is typical of the early or mid-stages of a bull market that has yet to show signs of mass distribution.

To further drill down, we used HODL Waves data, which is stratified by the age of wallets. Focusing on wallets that have held their coins for 6 months or longer, we found that more than 70% of the Bitcoin supply is currently controlled by medium- to long-term holders.

Interestingly, while this ratio is still high, it has begun to decline slightly, indicating that some long-term holders may be selling, even as the long-term holder supply is still growing. The main driver of the growth in long-term supply seems to be the gradual "aging" of short-term holders into the 155-day holding range, rather than large-scale buying by new funds.

Using raw data from the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, we analyzed the rate of change in long-term holder balances by wallet age. When this indicator drops significantly, it historically often coincides with cycle tops. Conversely, when this indicator rises sharply, it often corresponds to market bottoms and deep accumulation phases.

To improve the accuracy of these signals, the data can be segmented more finely by comparing recent holders (0–1 month) to medium-term holders (1–5 years). This comparison of the age distribution of coins can provide more frequent and real-time insights into distribution behavior.

We found that when the ratio of 1-5 year holders to new holders drops sharply, it historically coincides with Bitcoin price tops. Conversely, when the ratio rises rapidly, meaning more Bitcoin flows into the hands of more experienced investors, it is often a precursor to major price increases.

Changes in long-term investor behavior are one of the most effective ways to assess market sentiment and the sustainability of price fluctuations. Historical data shows that long-term holders often outperform short-term traders in terms of profitability by buying in panic and holding for the long term. By analyzing the age distribution structure of Bitcoin, we can more accurately capture market tops and bottoms without relying on price movements or short-term sentiment.

At present, there is only slight selling by long-term holders, far from the scale at the top of previous cycles. There is indeed some profit taking, but the pace of its occurrence seems to be completely controllable and belongs to a healthy market environment.

Considering the current bull market phase and the participation of both institutional and retail investors, the data suggests that we are still in a structurally strong phase and there is still room for prices to rise further amid continued inflows of new funds.