在压力下的比特币：一场衰退临近五月

尽管比特币测试了97,000美元，并达到64.85％的优势，但逆风却出现了：衰退。确实，大规模的衰退可能袭击BTC

The fate of Bitcoin hangs in the balance as May approaches, bringing with it both the threat of a global recession and escalating tensions between the United States and China.

随着五月的距离，比特币的命运悬而未决，这既带来了全球衰退的威胁，又带来了美国与中国之间的紧张局势。

As the market navigates these turbulent waters, the outcome of trade talks between Beijing and Washington could propel BTC to new highs or, conversely, trigger a descent into the red.

当市场驾驶这些动荡的水域时，北京与华盛顿之间的贸易谈判的结果可能会使BTC提升到新的高点，或者相反，将下降引入红色。

Bitcoin Faces Headwinds as Recession Looms

比特币面对衰退临近的逆风

While Bitcoin hovers around $97,000 and enjoys a 64.85% dominance among cryptocurrencies, several headwinds threaten its bullish momentum. Among them, a massive recession could strike as early as this summer.

虽然比特币徘徊在97,000美元左右，并且在加密货币中占据了64.85％的统治地位，但一些逆风威胁到其看涨的势头。其中，大规模的衰退可能早在今年夏天。

This scenario is unfolding rapidly with a sharp drop in corporate profit outlooks, registering the most significant decline since 2020. In this context, the development of trade relations between the United States and China is crucial for investors.

这种情况正在迅速发展，公司利润前景急剧下降，这是自2020年以来最大的下降。在这种情况下，美国与中国之间的贸易关系发展对投资者至关重要。

The threat of a no-deal scenario is growing with the potential termination of tariff exemptions on certain Chinese imports, such as auto parts and small parcels valued under $800.

随着某些中国进口税的可能终止关税的可能终止，例如汽车零件和价值低于800美元的小型包裹，因此不交易方案的威胁正在增长。

This move would further escalate trade tensions and could have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price. According to calculations by Factor, a global macro research firm, BTC could experience double-digit losses without an agreement this May.

此举将进一步升级贸易紧张局势，并可能对比特币的价格产生重大影响。根据全球宏观研究公司的计算，BTC可能会在今年5月达成协议的情况下遭受两位数的损失。

However, this extreme scenario remains unlikely. Both powers have no economic interest in slowing their trade, and an agreement or compromise around a reciprocal 10% tariff seems more realistic.

但是，这种极端情况仍然不可能。两项权力在减慢其贸易方面均无经济利益，围绕10％关税的同意或妥协似乎更现实。

Trade Deal or Further Tariffs: A Pivotal Choice

贸易协议或其他关税：关键选择

The outcome of these tariff discussions will largely depend on the willingness of both parties to reach a compromise.

这些关税讨论的结果在很大程度上取决于双方达成妥协的意愿。

The threat of a no-deal scenario, while extreme, highlights the importance of May in determining the future of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

虽然极端情况下，虽然无交易方案的威胁强调了五月在确定比特币和更广泛的加密市场的未来的重要性。

"If the United States and China fail to reach a trade deal by May and threaten to escalate tariffs further, we expect U.S. stocks to fall 10% to 15%, and Bitcoin to decline 15% to 20% from current levels," Factor stated in a recent report.

Factor在最近的一份报告中说：“如果美国和中国在5月之前未能达成贸易协议，并威胁要进一步升级关税，我们预计我们的股票将下跌10％至15％，而比特币将从目前的水平下降15％至20％。”

"If they manage to strike a trade deal this spring, we anticipate further gains of 10% to 15% in U.S. stocks and 15% to 20% in Bitcoin from current valuations."

“如果他们在今年春季设法达成一项贸易协议，我们预计美国股票将进一步增长10％至15％，比特币从当前的估值中获得15％至20％的收益。”

Highlighting the close correlation between Bitcoin and technology stocks, Factor's analysis predicts steeper losses for speculative assets in the event of a no-deal scenario.

Factor的分析强调了比特币与技术库存之间的密切相关性，预测，在没有解决方案的情况下，投机资产的巨大损失。

"In a no-deal scenario, we also expect high-yield bonds and emerging-market debt to decline by 10% to 15%, while investment-grade bonds are expected to fall by 5% to 10% from current levels," the firm added.

该公司补充说：“在无交易的情况下，我们还预计，高收益债券和新兴市场债务下降了10％至15％，而投资级债券预计将从目前的水平下降5％至10％。”

"In contrast, we anticipate a modest rise of 5% to 10% in U.S. Treasury bonds from current yields."

“相比之下，我们预计从当前收益率的美国国库债券中，美国国库债券将有5％至10％。”

Bitcoin Could Benefit From Stagflation

比特币可以从散落中受益

Despite the threat of a global recession, some experts believe that Bitcoin could benefit from a stagflationary scenario.

尽管面临全球经济衰退的威胁，但一些专家认为，比特币可以从停滞状况中受益。

"I think Bitcoin is likely to correct with other risk assets in the coming months as the global economic outlook deteriorates further and we expect a mild recession in the second half of the year," said Sebastien Payet, founder of crypto and Web3 research firm DeepChain.

Crypto和Web3研究公司DeepChain的创始人Sebastien Payet表示：“我认为，随着全球经济前景进一步恶化，比特币在未来几个月内可能会纠正其他风险资产，并且我们预计下半年会有轻微的衰退。”

"But I also think that Bitcoin is likely to rebound more quickly than other risk assets as it is used by traders to hedge against inflation and diversify their portfolios."

“但是我也认为比特币可能比其他风险资产更快地反弹，因为交易者用来对冲通货膨胀和使其投资组合多样化。”

However, Payet acknowledges that the outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain due to its strong correlation with technology stocks.

但是，Payet承认，由于比特币与技术股的密切相关，比特币的前景仍然不确定。

"The strong correlation between Bitcoin and technology stocks makes it difficult to predict how the cryptocurrency will perform in the coming months," Payet noted.

Payet指出：“比特币与技术库存之间的密切相关性使得很难预测未来几个月的加密货币的性能。”

"However, I think that the outlook for Bitcoin is ultimately linked to the outlook for the global economy and the outlook for inflation."

“但是，我认为比特币的前景最终与全球经济的前景和通货膨胀的前景联系在一起。”

Moreover, Payet highlights the threat of systemic risks linked to a global economic slowdown, which could heavily penalize speculative assets, including Bitcoin.

此外，Payet强调了与全球经济放缓有关的系统风险的威胁，这可能会严重惩罚包括比特币在内的投机资产。

"I think that there are a few systemic risks that could have a significant impact on Bitcoin in the coming months," Payet concludes.

Payet总结说：“我认为，在未来几个月中，有一些系统性风险可能会对比特币产生重大影响。”

"The most pressing risk is the threat of a global economic slowdown. A slowdown could lead to declines in asset prices and trading activity, which would have a negative impact on Bitcoin."

“最紧迫的风险是全球经济放缓的威胁。放缓可能导致资产价格和交易活动的下降，这将对比特币产生负面影响。”