在壓力下的比特幣：一場衰退臨近五月

儘管比特幣測試了97,000美元，並達到64.85％的優勢，但逆風卻出現了：衰退。確實，大規模的衰退可能襲擊BTC

The fate of Bitcoin hangs in the balance as May approaches, bringing with it both the threat of a global recession and escalating tensions between the United States and China.

隨著五月的距離，比特幣的命運懸而未決，這既帶來了全球衰退的威脅，又帶來了美國與中國之間的緊張局勢。

As the market navigates these turbulent waters, the outcome of trade talks between Beijing and Washington could propel BTC to new highs or, conversely, trigger a descent into the red.

當市場駕駛這些動蕩的水域時，北京與華盛頓之間的貿易談判的結果可能會使BTC提升到新的高點，或者相反，將下降引入紅色。

Bitcoin Faces Headwinds as Recession Looms

比特幣面對衰退臨近的逆風

While Bitcoin hovers around $97,000 and enjoys a 64.85% dominance among cryptocurrencies, several headwinds threaten its bullish momentum. Among them, a massive recession could strike as early as this summer.

雖然比特幣徘徊在97,000美元左右，並且在加密貨幣中佔據了64.85％的統治地位，但一些逆風威脅到其看漲的勢頭。其中，大規模的衰退可能早在今年夏天。

This scenario is unfolding rapidly with a sharp drop in corporate profit outlooks, registering the most significant decline since 2020. In this context, the development of trade relations between the United States and China is crucial for investors.

這種情況正在迅速發展，公司利潤前景急劇下降，這是自2020年以來最大的下降。在這種情況下，美國與中國之間的貿易關係發展對投資者至關重要。

The threat of a no-deal scenario is growing with the potential termination of tariff exemptions on certain Chinese imports, such as auto parts and small parcels valued under $800.

隨著某些中國進口稅的可能終止關稅的可能終止，例如汽車零件和價值低於800美元的小型包裹，因此不交易方案的威脅正在增長。

This move would further escalate trade tensions and could have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price. According to calculations by Factor, a global macro research firm, BTC could experience double-digit losses without an agreement this May.

此舉將進一步升級貿易緊張局勢，並可能對比特幣的價格產生重大影響。根據全球宏觀研究公司的計算，BTC可能會在今年5月達成協議的情況下遭受兩位數的損失。

However, this extreme scenario remains unlikely. Both powers have no economic interest in slowing their trade, and an agreement or compromise around a reciprocal 10% tariff seems more realistic.

但是，這種極端情況仍然不可能。兩項權力在減慢其貿易方面均無經濟利益，圍繞10％關稅的同意或妥協似乎更現實。

Trade Deal or Further Tariffs: A Pivotal Choice

貿易協議或其他關稅：關鍵選擇

The outcome of these tariff discussions will largely depend on the willingness of both parties to reach a compromise.

這些關稅討論的結果在很大程度上取決於雙方達成妥協的意願。

The threat of a no-deal scenario, while extreme, highlights the importance of May in determining the future of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

雖然極端情況下，雖然無交易方案的威脅強調了五月在確定比特幣和更廣泛的加密市場的未來的重要性。

"If the United States and China fail to reach a trade deal by May and threaten to escalate tariffs further, we expect U.S. stocks to fall 10% to 15%, and Bitcoin to decline 15% to 20% from current levels," Factor stated in a recent report.

Factor在最近的一份報告中說：“如果美國和中國在5月之前未能達成貿易協議，並威脅要進一步升級關稅，我們預計我們的股票將下跌10％至15％，而比特幣將從目前的水平下降15％至20％。”

"If they manage to strike a trade deal this spring, we anticipate further gains of 10% to 15% in U.S. stocks and 15% to 20% in Bitcoin from current valuations."

“如果他們在今年春季設法達成一項貿易協議，我們預計美國股票將進一步增長10％至15％，比特幣從當前的估值中獲得15％至20％的收益。”

Highlighting the close correlation between Bitcoin and technology stocks, Factor's analysis predicts steeper losses for speculative assets in the event of a no-deal scenario.

Factor的分析強調了比特幣與技術庫存之間的密切相關性，預測，在沒有解決方案的情況下，投機資產的巨大損失。

"In a no-deal scenario, we also expect high-yield bonds and emerging-market debt to decline by 10% to 15%, while investment-grade bonds are expected to fall by 5% to 10% from current levels," the firm added.

該公司補充說：“在無交易的情況下，我們還預計，高收益債券和新興市場債務下降了10％至15％，而投資級債券預計將從目前的水平下降5％至10％。”

"In contrast, we anticipate a modest rise of 5% to 10% in U.S. Treasury bonds from current yields."

“相比之下，我們預計從當前收益率的美國國庫債券中，美國國庫債券將有5％至10％。”

Bitcoin Could Benefit From Stagflation

比特幣可以從散落中受益

Despite the threat of a global recession, some experts believe that Bitcoin could benefit from a stagflationary scenario.

儘管面臨全球經濟衰退的威脅，但一些專家認為，比特幣可以從停滯狀況中受益。

"I think Bitcoin is likely to correct with other risk assets in the coming months as the global economic outlook deteriorates further and we expect a mild recession in the second half of the year," said Sebastien Payet, founder of crypto and Web3 research firm DeepChain.

Crypto和Web3研究公司DeepChain的創始人Sebastien Payet表示：“我認為，隨著全球經濟前景進一步惡化，比特幣在未來幾個月內可能會糾正其他風險資產，並且我們預計下半年會有輕微的衰退。”

"But I also think that Bitcoin is likely to rebound more quickly than other risk assets as it is used by traders to hedge against inflation and diversify their portfolios."

“但是我也認為比特幣可能比其他風險資產更快地反彈，因為交易者用來對沖通貨膨脹和使其投資組合多樣化。”

However, Payet acknowledges that the outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain due to its strong correlation with technology stocks.

但是，Payet承認，由於比特幣與技術股的密切相關，比特幣的前景仍然不確定。

"The strong correlation between Bitcoin and technology stocks makes it difficult to predict how the cryptocurrency will perform in the coming months," Payet noted.

Payet指出：“比特幣與技術庫存之間的密切相關性使得很難預測未來幾個月的加密貨幣的性能。”

"However, I think that the outlook for Bitcoin is ultimately linked to the outlook for the global economy and the outlook for inflation."

“但是，我認為比特幣的前景最終與全球經濟的前景和通貨膨脹的前景聯繫在一起。”

Moreover, Payet highlights the threat of systemic risks linked to a global economic slowdown, which could heavily penalize speculative assets, including Bitcoin.

此外，Payet強調了與全球經濟放緩有關的系統風險的威脅，這可能會嚴重懲罰包括比特幣在內的投機資產。

"I think that there are a few systemic risks that could have a significant impact on Bitcoin in the coming months," Payet concludes.

Payet總結說：“我認為，在未來幾個月中，有一些系統性風險可能會對比特幣產生重大影響。”

"The most pressing risk is the threat of a global economic slowdown. A slowdown could lead to declines in asset prices and trading activity, which would have a negative impact on Bitcoin."

“最緊迫的風險是全球經濟放緩的威脅。放緩可能導致資產價格和交易活動的下降，這將對比特幣產生負面影響。”