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4月初,比特币从81500美元上升到84500美元,而股票和黄金下降。这次简短的集会是在新的关税新闻震撼了全球市场之后。
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose rapidly in early April as new tariffs threatened to derail a fragile stock market recovery, and the world’s largest cryptocurrency briefly surged to new 2024 highs.
比特币(BTC)的价格在4月初迅速上涨,因为新的关税可能会破坏脆弱的股票市场回收,而世界上最大的加密货币短暂飙升至2024年新高。
As the market braced for more bad news, Bitcoin moved like a classic risk asset – cutting through key resistance levels as major stock indices sank further into bear market territory.
随着市场为更多的坏消息做出准备,比特币像经典的风险资产一样行动 - 削减了关键阻力水平,主要库存指数进一步陷入了熊市市场。
However, the brief rally was quickly quashed, and the link between Bitcoin and equities quickly re-tightened in the following weeks, according to the latest analysis from VanEck.
但是,根据Vaneck的最新分析,短暂的集会很快被撤销,比特币与股票之间的联系很快被重新接近。
As the 30-day correlation with the S.P. (500) returned to 0.55, it means that Bitcoin is still tracking traditional assets more often than not.
随着与SP(500)的30天相关性返回到0.55,这意味着比特币仍在跟踪传统资产的频繁。
“The strong short-term bullish move in BTC in early April, to new 2024 highs, occurred as the new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods threatened to derail a fragile recovery in global equities and, with it, the ‘risk-on’ market mood that had seen crypto markets rise sharply from their December lows,” explained the team at VanEck.
“ 4月初,BTC的强烈短期看涨行动升至2024年的新高点,是因为美国对中国商品的新关税威胁到全球股票的脆弱恢复,并且随之而来的是“风险启用”的市场情绪,而“风险启用”的市场情绪从12月的12月起就急剧上升,” Vaneck的团队解释说。
“This price spike, which saw BTC rally from around $81,500 to $84,500, had some bulls hoping that, at long last, Bitcoin was beginning to act as an inflation hedge, much like gold.”
“这个价格飙升的飙升使BTC的集会从约81,500美元到84,500美元,有一些公牛,希望终于最后,比特币开始充当通货膨胀对冲,就像黄金一样。”
However, the analysts add that the surge in Bitcoin’s price didn’t last, and the link between the crypto and equities quickly re-tightened in the following weeks.
但是,分析师补充说,比特币价格的飙升并没有持续,而加密货币与股票之间的联系在接下来的几周内迅速重新启动。
As the 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 returned to 0.55 by mid-April, it means that Bitcoin is still tracking traditional assets more often than not.
随着与标准普尔500指数的30天相关性在4月中旬恢复到0.55,这意味着比特币仍在跟踪传统资产的频繁。
“The label of ‘risk asset’ still fits BTC, as it tends to react to macroeconomic and geopolitical news, investor sentiment, and broader market trends, such as the performance of tech stocks, more than it moves in the opposite direction,” they wrote.
他们写道:“'风险资产'的标签仍然适合BTC,因为它倾向于对宏观经济和地缘政治新闻,投资者的情绪以及更广泛的市场趋势做出反应,例如技术股票的性能,而不是朝相反方向移动。”
Their analysis comes as traders continue to be disappointed by Bitcoin’s lack of ability to act as a true safe haven during periods of market stress.
他们的分析是因为在市场压力期间,比特币缺乏充当真正的避风港的能力使交易员继续感到失望。
Instead, the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency has largely mimicked the moves in the stock market throughout 2024, with both asset classes coming under pressure from surging inflation, a series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and the threat of a looming recession.
取而代之的是,世界上最有价值的加密货币在很大程度上模仿了整个2024年股票市场的举动,两种资产类别都承受着飙升通货膨胀的压力,美联储的一系列利率加息以及迫在眉睫的经济衰退的威胁。
“It is also worth noting that, despite the strong correlation, Bitcoin significantly outperformed the broader market in April,” the report, titled ‘Crypto Market Update,’ concluded.
该报告称:“尽管有很强的相关性,但比特币在4月份的表现明显优于更广泛的市场。”
“However, while this relative strength is interesting, it shouldn't be mistaken for independence, and the asset’s volatility works both ways, with large gains often presenting commensurate levels of risk.”
“但是,尽管这种相对的力量很有趣,但它不应误认为是独立性的,而且资产的波动性双向奏效,而且较大的收益通常会带来相应的风险水平。”
Bitcoin price is currently trading at around $77,000 and is down 16% from its 2024 high of $92,000, which was reached in March.
比特币价格目前的交易价格约为77,000美元,比其2024年高点的92,000美元下降了16%,这是3月达到的。
The price of Bitcoin has surged in recent months amid a build-up of institutional interest in the asset, with several large corporations adding to their crypto holdings.
由于资产的机构利益的积累,比特币的价格在近几个月中飙升,几家大型公司增加了其加密货币。
Earlier this month, Bernstein analysts made the case for why they expect to see more institutions invest in Bitcoin in the coming years, and they predict that corporate allocations into the asset could reach $330 billion over the next five years.
本月早些时候,伯恩斯坦分析师提出了为什么他们希望在未来几年看到更多机构投资比特币的原因,他们预测,在未来五年内,对资产的公司分配可能会达到3300亿美元。
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