比特币（BTC）最终可能与股票和黄金脱钩

硬币指标的广泛报告中强调了最近的趋势，这表明比特币（BTC）（旗舰加密货币）最终可能与传统资产分离

Bitcoin (BTC), often referred to as “digital gold” or now even as “digital capital” by Strategy’s Michael Saylor, has continued sparked debate among traders and economists.

比特币（BTC）通常被称为“数字黄金”，即使是战略的迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor），也被称为“数字资本”，它继续引发贸易商和经济学家之间的辩论。

Recent trends, highlighted in an extensive report from Coin Metrics, suggest that the flagship cryptocurrency may finally be decoupling from traditional assets like equities and gold, especially as correlations have fallen near zero.

硬币指标的广泛报告中强调了最近的趋势，这表明旗舰加密货币最终可能与股票和黄金等传统资产相结合，尤其是随着相关性接近零。

In an extensive research report, Coin Metrics examines Bitcoin’s (BTC) behavior across different market conditions, its relationship with interest rates, and its evolving risk profile as of May 2025.

在广泛的研究报告中，硬币指标研究了不同市场条件的比特币（BTC）行为，其与利率的关系以及截至2025年5月的风险概况。

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policies, particularly interest rate changes, significantly impact markets, including Bitcoin.

美国美联储的政策，尤其是利率变化，严重影响包括比特币在内的市场。

Over the past decade, we’ve seen shifts from zero-interest rates to aggressive hikes and recent cuts. Bitcoin’s correlation with interest rates is generally low, but patterns emerge during policy shifts:

在过去的十年中，我们已经看到从零利息率转变为侵略性远足和最近的削减。比特币与利率的相关性通常很低，但是在政策转变期间出现了模式：

Since 2023, with recent rate cuts, Bitcoin’s performance has been neutral to positive, and correlations have edged toward zero, suggesting a transitional phase.

自2023年以来，随着最近的降低，比特币的性能一直是中性的，相关性已偏向零，这表明是过渡阶段。

Recent data indicates Bitcoin’s 90-day correlations with the S&P 500 and gold have fallen near zero, a rare occurrence typically seen during major market catalysts or shocks.

最近的数据表明，比特币与标准普尔500指数和黄金的90天相关性接近零，这是在主要的市场催化剂或冲击过程中常见的罕见发生。

For instance, in 2019, China’s ban on Bitcoin and, more recently, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) both pushed these correlations close to zero.

例如，在2019年，中国对比特币的禁令以及最近由美国证券交易委员会（SEC）（SEC）批准了比特币ETF的批准，都将这些相关性推向了接近零。

Historically, such low correlation periods last 2-3 months and often precede moderately positive returns for Bitcoin.

从历史上看，这种低相关时间持续2-3个月，通常是比特币的中等积极回报。

At the time of writing, these low correlations began in December 2024, suggesting a potential period of outperformance for Bitcoin compared to traditional assets.

在撰写本文时，这些低相关性始于2024年12月，这表明比特币与传统资产相比，比特币的表现均超过了。

However, Bitcoin’s beta to the S&P 500 was high in 2024, amplifying gains and losses.

但是，比特币的Beta到2024年的标准普尔500指数很高，从而扩大了收益和损失。

This indicates a close linkage to equities, but it seems to be declining in 2025, suggesting less dependence on the stock market.

这表明与股票有着密切的联系，但在2025年似乎正在下降，这表明对股票市场的依赖减少了。

Bitcoin’s realized volatility, once exceeding 80-100% due to rapid price swings, has declined significantly since the 2021 bull market.

自2021年牛市以来，由于价格快速波动，比特币的实现波动率曾经超过80-100％。

Now, it has stabilized at 50-60%, aligning closely with technology stocks like NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA).

现在，它已经稳定在50-60％，与NVIDIA（NASDAQ：NVDA）等技术股票紧密保持一致。

This reduction likely reflects Bitcoin’s maturation, with a broader and more stable ownership base, including greater institutional participation, which tends to reduce short-term volatility.

这种减少可能反映了比特币的成熟，并具有更广泛，更稳定的所有权基础，包括更多的机构参与，这往往会降低短期波动。

Despite this, Bitcoin remains a risk-on asset, not a safe haven like gold, which is usually preferred during periods of heightened risk aversion.

尽管如此，比特币仍然是一种风险的资产，而不是像黄金这样的避风港，通常在风险越来越高的时期是优选的。

Bitcoin’s potential decoupling from traditional markets has been a subject of ongoing discussion among financial researchers and economists.

比特币与传统市场的潜在脱钩一直是金融研究人员和经济学家之间正在进行的讨论的主题。

As the flagship cryptocurrency continues to evolve, researchers at Coin Metrics have delved into recent data and historical trends to provide a comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin’s behavior across different market regimes, its correlations with equities and gold, and its evolving risk profile.

随着旗舰加密货币的不断发展，硬币指标的研究人员已经深入研究了最近的数据和历史趋势，以对不同市场制度的比特币行为进行全面分析，其与股票和黄金的相关性以及其不断发展的风险概况。

Over its 16-year history, Bitcoin has been variously labeled as “digital gold,” a “store of value,” and a “risk-on asset.”

在其16年的历史中，比特币被各种标记为“数字黄金”，一种“价值存储”和“风险对资产”。

These labels reflect its perceived role as a hedge against inflation, a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty, or a speculative investment that thrives in bullish markets.

这些标签反映了其认为是抵制通货膨胀的对冲，经济不确定性时期的避风港或在看涨市场中蓬勃发展的投资投资。

However, Bitcoin’s actual behavior often deviates from these narratives, prompting questions about whether it is a unique asset class with its own internal drivers, or simply a leveraged expression of existing risky assets like stocks.

但是，比特币的实际行为通常会偏离这些叙述，引发了有关它是否是具有自己内部驱动因素的独特资产类别的问题，还是仅仅是对现有风险资产（如股票）的杠杆表达。

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policies, particularly changes in interest rates, affect market liquidity and investor risk appetite, which in turn impacts Bitcoin.

美国美联储的政策，尤其是利率的变化，影响市场流动性和投资者风险食欲，进而影响比特币。

To analyze this, it is useful to segment Bitcoin’s history into five key regimes based on the Federal Funds Rate (FFR):

为了分析这一点，根据联邦资金利率（FFR）将比特币的历史分为五个关键制度很有用：

This analysis indicates that while Bitcoin’s correlation with interest rates is generally low, shifts in monetary regimes, especially tightening cycles, significantly affect its behavior.

该分析表明，尽管比特币与利率的相关性通常很低，但货币制度（尤其是收紧周期）的变化会显着影响其行为。

For instance, during the 2022 tightening cycle, as the Fed rapidly raised interest rates, there was a period of high correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500.

例如，在2022年收紧周期中，随着美联储迅速提高的利率，比特币与标准普尔500指数之间存在很高的相关性。

However, as the Fed pivoted to begin cutting interest rates in early 2023, this correlation quickly fell to nearly zero.

但是，随着美联储在2023年初开始降低利率的关键时期，这种相关性迅速下降至近乎零。

To assess decoupling, Coin Metrics examined Bitcoin’s 90-day correlations with the S&P 500 and gold.

为了评估脱钩，硬币指标检查了比特币与标准普尔500和黄金的90天相关性。

Recent data, as of May 2025, shows these correlations have fallen near zero, a phenomenon typically seen during major market catalysts or shocks.

截至2025年5月，最近的数据表明，这些相关性已接近零，这一现象通常在主要的市场催化剂或冲击中看到。

For instance, in 2019, China’s unexpected ban on crypto exchanges pushed these correlations low.

例如，在2019年，中国对加密交易所的意外禁令将这些相关性降低。

Similarly, in early 2024, the U.S. SEC’s approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETF drove these correlations close to zero.

同样，在2024年初，美国SEC对第一名比特币ETF的批准将这些相关性接近零。

Both periods lasted 2-3 months and were

这两个时期持续了2-3个月，