Bitcoin's Market Moves Still Mirror Stocks, VanEck Says

Bitcoin made a bold move early April jumping from $81500 to $84500 while stocks and gold dropped. This brief rally came after fresh tariff news rattled global markets.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose rapidly in early April as new tariffs threatened to derail a fragile stock market recovery, and the world’s largest cryptocurrency briefly surged to new 2024 highs.

As the market braced for more bad news, Bitcoin moved like a classic risk asset – cutting through key resistance levels as major stock indices sank further into bear market territory.

However, the brief rally was quickly quashed, and the link between Bitcoin and equities quickly re-tightened in the following weeks, according to the latest analysis from VanEck.

As the 30-day correlation with the S.P. (500) returned to 0.55, it means that Bitcoin is still tracking traditional assets more often than not.

“The strong short-term bullish move in BTC in early April, to new 2024 highs, occurred as the new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods threatened to derail a fragile recovery in global equities and, with it, the ‘risk-on’ market mood that had seen crypto markets rise sharply from their December lows,” explained the team at VanEck.

“This price spike, which saw BTC rally from around $81,500 to $84,500, had some bulls hoping that, at long last, Bitcoin was beginning to act as an inflation hedge, much like gold.”

However, the analysts add that the surge in Bitcoin’s price didn’t last, and the link between the crypto and equities quickly re-tightened in the following weeks.

As the 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 returned to 0.55 by mid-April, it means that Bitcoin is still tracking traditional assets more often than not.

“The label of ‘risk asset’ still fits BTC, as it tends to react to macroeconomic and geopolitical news, investor sentiment, and broader market trends, such as the performance of tech stocks, more than it moves in the opposite direction,” they wrote.

Their analysis comes as traders continue to be disappointed by Bitcoin’s lack of ability to act as a true safe haven during periods of market stress.

Instead, the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency has largely mimicked the moves in the stock market throughout 2024, with both asset classes coming under pressure from surging inflation, a series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and the threat of a looming recession.

“It is also worth noting that, despite the strong correlation, Bitcoin significantly outperformed the broader market in April,” the report, titled ‘Crypto Market Update,’ concluded.

“However, while this relative strength is interesting, it shouldn't be mistaken for independence, and the asset’s volatility works both ways, with large gains often presenting commensurate levels of risk.”

Bitcoin price is currently trading at around $77,000 and is down 16% from its 2024 high of $92,000, which was reached in March.

The price of Bitcoin has surged in recent months amid a build-up of institutional interest in the asset, with several large corporations adding to their crypto holdings.

Earlier this month, Bernstein analysts made the case for why they expect to see more institutions invest in Bitcoin in the coming years, and they predict that corporate allocations into the asset could reach $330 billion over the next five years.