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4月初,比特幣從81500美元上升到84500美元,而股票和黃金下降。這次簡短的集會是在新的關稅新聞震撼了全球市場之後。
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose rapidly in early April as new tariffs threatened to derail a fragile stock market recovery, and the world’s largest cryptocurrency briefly surged to new 2024 highs.
比特幣(BTC)的價格在4月初迅速上漲,因為新的關稅可能會破壞脆弱的股票市場回收,而世界上最大的加密貨幣短暫飆升至2024年新高。
As the market braced for more bad news, Bitcoin moved like a classic risk asset – cutting through key resistance levels as major stock indices sank further into bear market territory.
隨著市場為更多的壞消息做出準備,比特幣像經典的風險資產一樣行動 - 削減了關鍵阻力水平,主要庫存指數進一步陷入了熊市市場。
However, the brief rally was quickly quashed, and the link between Bitcoin and equities quickly re-tightened in the following weeks, according to the latest analysis from VanEck.
但是,根據Vaneck的最新分析,短暫的集會很快被撤銷,比特幣與股票之間的聯繫很快被重新接近。
As the 30-day correlation with the S.P. (500) returned to 0.55, it means that Bitcoin is still tracking traditional assets more often than not.
隨著與SP(500)的30天相關性返回到0.55,這意味著比特幣仍在跟踪傳統資產的頻繁。
“The strong short-term bullish move in BTC in early April, to new 2024 highs, occurred as the new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods threatened to derail a fragile recovery in global equities and, with it, the ‘risk-on’ market mood that had seen crypto markets rise sharply from their December lows,” explained the team at VanEck.
“ 4月初,BTC的強烈短期看漲行動升至2024年的新高點,是因為美國對中國商品的新關稅威脅到全球股票的脆弱恢復,並且隨之而來的是“風險啟用”的市場情緒,而“風險啟用”的市場情緒從12月的12月起就急劇上升,” Vaneck的團隊解釋說。
“This price spike, which saw BTC rally from around $81,500 to $84,500, had some bulls hoping that, at long last, Bitcoin was beginning to act as an inflation hedge, much like gold.”
“這個價格飆升的飆升使BTC的集會從約81,500美元到84,500美元,有一些公牛,希望終於最後,比特幣開始充當通貨膨脹對沖,就像黃金一樣。”
However, the analysts add that the surge in Bitcoin’s price didn’t last, and the link between the crypto and equities quickly re-tightened in the following weeks.
但是,分析師補充說,比特幣價格的飆升並沒有持續,而加密貨幣與股票之間的聯繫在接下來的幾週內迅速重新啟動。
As the 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 returned to 0.55 by mid-April, it means that Bitcoin is still tracking traditional assets more often than not.
隨著與標準普爾500指數的30天相關性在4月中旬恢復到0.55,這意味著比特幣仍在跟踪傳統資產的頻繁。
“The label of ‘risk asset’ still fits BTC, as it tends to react to macroeconomic and geopolitical news, investor sentiment, and broader market trends, such as the performance of tech stocks, more than it moves in the opposite direction,” they wrote.
他們寫道:“'風險資產'的標籤仍然適合BTC,因為它傾向於對宏觀經濟和地緣政治新聞,投資者的情緒以及更廣泛的市場趨勢做出反應,例如技術股票的性能,而不是朝相反方向移動。”
Their analysis comes as traders continue to be disappointed by Bitcoin’s lack of ability to act as a true safe haven during periods of market stress.
他們的分析是因為在市場壓力期間,比特幣缺乏充當真正的避風港的能力使交易員繼續感到失望。
Instead, the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency has largely mimicked the moves in the stock market throughout 2024, with both asset classes coming under pressure from surging inflation, a series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and the threat of a looming recession.
取而代之的是,世界上最有價值的加密貨幣在很大程度上模仿了整個2024年股票市場的舉動,兩種資產類別都承受著飆升通貨膨脹的壓力,美聯儲的一系列利率加息以及迫在眉睫的經濟衰退的威脅。
“It is also worth noting that, despite the strong correlation, Bitcoin significantly outperformed the broader market in April,” the report, titled ‘Crypto Market Update,’ concluded.
該報告稱:“儘管有很強的相關性,但比特幣在4月份的表現明顯優於更廣泛的市場。”
“However, while this relative strength is interesting, it shouldn't be mistaken for independence, and the asset’s volatility works both ways, with large gains often presenting commensurate levels of risk.”
“但是,儘管這種相對的力量很有趣,但它不應誤認為是獨立性的,而且資產的波動性雙向奏效,而且較大的收益通常會帶來相應的風險水平。”
Bitcoin price is currently trading at around $77,000 and is down 16% from its 2024 high of $92,000, which was reached in March.
比特幣價格目前的交易價格約為77,000美元,比其2024年高點的92,000美元下降了16%,這是3月達到的。
The price of Bitcoin has surged in recent months amid a build-up of institutional interest in the asset, with several large corporations adding to their crypto holdings.
由於資產的機構利益的積累,比特幣的價格在近幾個月中飆升,幾家大型公司增加了其加密貨幣。
Earlier this month, Bernstein analysts made the case for why they expect to see more institutions invest in Bitcoin in the coming years, and they predict that corporate allocations into the asset could reach $330 billion over the next five years.
本月早些時候,伯恩斯坦分析師提出了為什麼他們希望在未來幾年看到更多機構投資比特幣的原因,他們預測,在未來五年內,對資產的公司分配可能會達到3300億美元。
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