尽管BTC从8.5万美元上升到102K美元

尽管采取了这种看涨的举动，但长期持有人的情绪仍然柔和。这种断开连接强调了最近几周价格行动与投资者信心之间的差异。

Bitcoin’s [BTC] long-term holder net unrealized profit loss (NUPL) has returned to 0.69—identical to the 1st of April levels—despite BTC rising from $85K to $102K during that time.

比特币的[BTC]长期持有人净未实现的盈利损失（NUPL）已恢复到0.69（均为4月1日的水平），尽管BTC在此期间从$ 85K上升到102K美元。

In other words, despite the price surge, long-term investor sentiment hasn’t budged. Naturally, this reflects more than just hesitation.

换句话说，尽管价格上涨，但长期投资者的情绪并未激动。自然，这反映出不仅仅是犹豫。

December 2024 buyers are maturing into long-term holders, which dilutes the overall unrealized profit share. At the time of writing, BTC traded at $103,842, up 1.74% in the past 24 hours.

2024年12月，买家正在将长期持有人融入长期持有人，这稀释了整体未实现的利润份额。在撰写本文时，BTC的交易价格为103,842美元，在过去24小时内增长了1.74％。

Despite this bullish move, sentiment among long-term holders remains subdued. This disconnect highlights a growing divergence between price action and investor confidence over recent weeks.

尽管采取了这种看涨的举动，但长期持有人的情绪仍然柔和。这种断开连接强调了最近几周价格行动与投资者信心之间的差异。

Are whales unloading too soon?

鲸鱼卸载过早吗？

Whales have sold over 30,000 BTC in the last 72 hours, aggressively trimming their positions.

在过去的72小时内，鲸鱼卖出了30,000多个BTC，积极修剪其位置。

Simultaneously, Large Holders Netflow fell off a cliff, dropping 176.22% over seven days, and 71.25% over 30 days, according to IntoTheBlock.

根据Intotheblock的数据，同时，大型持有人的Netflow从悬崖上掉下来，在7天内下降了176.22％，在30天内下降了71.25％。

This data reveals a pattern of distribution rather than accumulation. Therefore, whales appear to lack confidence in the short-term upside.

该数据揭示了分布模式而不是积累。因此，鲸鱼似乎对短期上升空间缺乏信心。

Their consistent exits from the market suggest that caution is setting in.

他们从市场上始终如一地退出表明谨慎。

If large holders continue reducing exposure, short-term momentum could weaken despite Bitcoin’s higher valuation.

如果大型持有人继续减少曝光率，尽管比特币的估值较高，短期势头可能会减弱。

Nearly all Bitcoin holders are in profit.

几乎所有比特币持有人都在获利。

Over 94.88% of addresses hold BTC above their cost basis. Only 0.88% remain out of the money. While this reflects strong profitability, it also introduces distribution risk.

超过94.88％的地址持有BTC的成本基础。只剩下0.88％的钱。尽管这反映了强大的盈利能力，但它也引入了分销风险。

Historically, such extremes have often preceeded periods of correction.

从历史上看，这种极端通常已经在更正的时期之前。

Therefore, the chance of broader sell pressure remains elevated. If holders rush to lock in profits, they could increase supply on the market.

因此，更广泛的销售压力的机会仍然升高。如果持有人急于锁定利润，他们可能会增加市场上的供应。

Is rising derivatives activity masking weak conviction?

上升的衍生品活动是否掩盖了弱信念？

Bitcoin derivatives markets show higher activity but lower conviction. Futures Volume rose 36%, while Options Volume climbed 45%. But look deeper.

比特币衍生品市场显示出更高的活动，但信念较低。期货量增长了36％，而期权量增加了45％。但是看起来更深。

Meanwhile, Futures Open Interest rose only 1.5%, and Options Open Interest actually dropped 5%.

同时，期货开放利息仅上涨了1.5％，期权开放利息实际上下降了5％。

The takeaway?

外卖？

It highlights speculative trading without strong long positioning. Traders remain cautious despite active engagement.

它突出了投机性交易而没有强大的长时间定位。尽管有积极的参与，交易者仍然谨慎。

Therefore, current momentum lacks the deep leverage commitment seen during major rallies. Stablecoin buying power is growing.

因此，目前的动量缺乏在大型集会期间看到的深层杠杆作用。 Stablecoin购买力正在增长。

The Exchange Stablecoin Ratio rose 4.49% to 0.00005, indicating increased reserves. This suggests that capital is sitting on the sidelines, awaiting a better entry.

Exchange Stablecoin比率上升了4.49％，至0.00005，表明储量增加。这表明资本正坐在场上，等待更好的进入。

However, it has not yet entered Bitcoin markets. So, the buildup remains potential, not realized. If Bitcoin dips, stablecoins could flood in to support price.

但是，它尚未进入比特币市场。因此，积累仍然潜力，尚未实现。如果比特币下降，稳定币可能会涌入以支持价格。

But without that trigger, the demand remains inactive.

但是没有这种触发，需求仍然不活跃。

Is BTC’s long-term scarcity narrative growing stronger?

BTC的长期稀缺性叙事是否越来越强？

Zooming out, Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio jumped 116.67% to 43.5K, highlighting the deepening impact of the halving-induced supply shock.

放大后，比特币的股票流比率跃升了116.67％，至43.5k，突出了减半引起的供应冲击的加深影响。

If demand returns with strength, this reduced supply could amplify price action quickly. However, without new inflows, this bullish structure remains underutilized.

如果需求恢复力量，那么减少的供应可以迅速扩大价格行动。但是，如果没有新的流入，这种看涨的结构仍未得到充分利用。

Investors should track this metric closely as it reflects Bitcoin’s intrinsic long-term value.

投资者应密切跟踪该指标，因为它反映了比特币的内在长期价值。

Bitcoin shows strength in price but weakness in conviction. Long-term holders are muted, and whales are selling. Derivatives metrics reflect uncertainty.

比特币显示出价格的实力，但信念弱。长期持有人静音，鲸鱼正在销售。导数指标反映了不确定性。

Stablecoins signal readiness, but not deployment. Only scarcity supports the long-term case.

Stablecoins信号准备就绪，但没有部署。只有稀缺支持长期案例。

Therefore, the rally’s sustainability depends on renewed demand absorbing selling pressure and validating current price levels.

因此，集会的可持续性取决于新的需求吸收销售压力和验证当前​​价格水平。

As part of his broader commentary on the crypto market, Chainlink co-creator Steve Nerlich has defended the use of the term “whale” in the blockchain space.

作为他对加密市场的更广泛评论的一部分，Chainlink共同创造者史蒂夫·内利希（Steve Nerlich）捍卫了在区块链领域中使用“鲸鱼”一词的使用。

In a recent post on X, Nerlich responded to a comment that criticized the term "whale" as "anthropocentric." The commenter, an anthropologist interested in blockchain, suggested that the term "pointed towards a hierarchy with humans at the apex."

在最近关于X的帖子中，Nerlich回答了一条评论，该评论批评“鲸鱼”一词为“以人类为中心”。评论者是对区块链感兴趣的人类学家，他建议“指向与人类在顶点的等级制度”一词。

Nerlich countered by saying that the term "whale" was commonly used in the blockchain community to refer to large entities, such as exchanges or DeFi protocols, and that it was not intended to be disrespectful. He also noted that the term "pointed towards an ontology of distributed ledgers, not towards humans or apex predators."

内利希（Nerlich）说，“鲸鱼”一词在区块链社区中通常用于指代大型实体，例如交流或defi协议，并且不打算不尊重。他还指出，“指向分布式分类帐的本体论，而不是针对人类或最高掠食者”。

The Chainlink co-creator added that while he found the anthropologist's perspective interesting, he ultimately preferred to use terms that were familiar and widely used within the blockchain community.

Chainlink共同创造者补充说，尽管他发现人类学家的观点很有趣，但他最终宁愿使用熟悉的术语，并在区块链社区中广泛使用。

Nerlich's comments come amid a broader conversation about the language used in the crypto space. As the industry matures, there is a growing need for terms that are both accurate and respectful.

Nerlich的评论是关于加密空间中使用的语言的更广泛的对话。随着行业的成熟，对既准确又尊重的术语的需求越来越大。

The use of the term "whale" in the blockchain context is

在区块链上下文中使用“鲸鱼”一词的使用是