Bitcoin's [BTC] long-term holder NUPL has returned to 0.69 despite BTC rising from $85K to $102K

Despite this bullish move, sentiment among long-term holders remains subdued. This disconnect highlights a growing divergence between price action and investor confidence over recent weeks.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] long-term holder net unrealized profit loss (NUPL) has returned to 0.69—identical to the 1st of April levels—despite BTC rising from $85K to $102K during that time.

In other words, despite the price surge, long-term investor sentiment hasn’t budged. Naturally, this reflects more than just hesitation.

December 2024 buyers are maturing into long-term holders, which dilutes the overall unrealized profit share. At the time of writing, BTC traded at $103,842, up 1.74% in the past 24 hours.

Despite this bullish move, sentiment among long-term holders remains subdued. This disconnect highlights a growing divergence between price action and investor confidence over recent weeks.

Are whales unloading too soon?

Whales have sold over 30,000 BTC in the last 72 hours, aggressively trimming their positions.

Simultaneously, Large Holders Netflow fell off a cliff, dropping 176.22% over seven days, and 71.25% over 30 days, according to IntoTheBlock.

This data reveals a pattern of distribution rather than accumulation. Therefore, whales appear to lack confidence in the short-term upside.

Their consistent exits from the market suggest that caution is setting in.

If large holders continue reducing exposure, short-term momentum could weaken despite Bitcoin’s higher valuation.

Nearly all Bitcoin holders are in profit.

Over 94.88% of addresses hold BTC above their cost basis. Only 0.88% remain out of the money. While this reflects strong profitability, it also introduces distribution risk.

Historically, such extremes have often preceeded periods of correction.

Therefore, the chance of broader sell pressure remains elevated. If holders rush to lock in profits, they could increase supply on the market.

Is rising derivatives activity masking weak conviction?

Bitcoin derivatives markets show higher activity but lower conviction. Futures Volume rose 36%, while Options Volume climbed 45%. But look deeper.

Meanwhile, Futures Open Interest rose only 1.5%, and Options Open Interest actually dropped 5%.

The takeaway?

It highlights speculative trading without strong long positioning. Traders remain cautious despite active engagement.

Therefore, current momentum lacks the deep leverage commitment seen during major rallies. Stablecoin buying power is growing.

The Exchange Stablecoin Ratio rose 4.49% to 0.00005, indicating increased reserves. This suggests that capital is sitting on the sidelines, awaiting a better entry.

However, it has not yet entered Bitcoin markets. So, the buildup remains potential, not realized. If Bitcoin dips, stablecoins could flood in to support price.

But without that trigger, the demand remains inactive.

Is BTC’s long-term scarcity narrative growing stronger?

Zooming out, Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio jumped 116.67% to 43.5K, highlighting the deepening impact of the halving-induced supply shock.

If demand returns with strength, this reduced supply could amplify price action quickly. However, without new inflows, this bullish structure remains underutilized.

Investors should track this metric closely as it reflects Bitcoin’s intrinsic long-term value.

Bitcoin shows strength in price but weakness in conviction. Long-term holders are muted, and whales are selling. Derivatives metrics reflect uncertainty.

Stablecoins signal readiness, but not deployment. Only scarcity supports the long-term case.

Therefore, the rally’s sustainability depends on renewed demand absorbing selling pressure and validating current price levels.

As part of his broader commentary on the crypto market, Chainlink co-creator Steve Nerlich has defended the use of the term “whale” in the blockchain space.

In a recent post on X, Nerlich responded to a comment that criticized the term "whale" as "anthropocentric." The commenter, an anthropologist interested in blockchain, suggested that the term "pointed towards a hierarchy with humans at the apex."

Nerlich countered by saying that the term "whale" was commonly used in the blockchain community to refer to large entities, such as exchanges or DeFi protocols, and that it was not intended to be disrespectful. He also noted that the term "pointed towards an ontology of distributed ledgers, not towards humans or apex predators."

The Chainlink co-creator added that while he found the anthropologist's perspective interesting, he ultimately preferred to use terms that were familiar and widely used within the blockchain community.

Nerlich's comments come amid a broader conversation about the language used in the crypto space. As the industry matures, there is a growing need for terms that are both accurate and respectful.

The use of the term "whale" in the blockchain context is