比特币（BTC）面临看涨信号和短期不确定性的混合

比特币（BTC）面临看涨信号和短期不确定性的混合。穆迪最近对美国信用等级的降级提高了长期看涨

Credit analysis firm Moody’s has downgraded the U.S. credit rating by one notch from Aaa to Aa1, removing the world’s largest economy from the last perfect credit score among major rating agencies.

信用分析公司穆迪（Moody's）已将一条档次的美国信用评级从AAA降低到AA1，从而将世界上最大的经济体从主要评级机构的最后一个完美信用评分中删除。

It’s the first time in over a century that the U.S. lacks a top-tier rating from all three, following downgrades by Standard & Poor’s in 2011 and Fitch earlier in 2023.

这是一个多世纪以来的第一次，在2011年标准普尔（Standard＆Poor）和2023年早些时候的惠誉（Fitch）降级之后，美国缺乏这三个高级评级。

The downgrade comes amid increasing worries over the country’s fiscal health and signals more pain for the U.S. dollar and markets.

降级是由于对该国财政健康的担忧增加，并且对美元和市场的痛苦产生了更多的痛苦。

Here’s a breakdown of what happened, the market reaction, and why it matters for Bitcoin (BTC) in the long-term bull case.

这是对发生的事情，市场反应的细分以及在长期牛案中对比特币（BTC）重要的原因。

Moody’s Cuts US Credit Rating As Fiscal Woes Continue

随着财政困难的继续，穆迪（Moody）的信用评级

Moody’s has downgraded the U.S. credit rating by one notch from Aaa to Aa1, and also placed the outlook on the rating at ‘stable.’

穆迪（Moody's）将一个档次的美国信用评级从AAA降低到了AA1，并将“稳定”评级的前景降低了。

It’s the first time in over a century that the U.S. lacks a top-tier rating from all three major credit agencies, after S&P downgraded the country in 2011 and Fitch earlier this year.

这是一个多世纪以来，美国第一次缺乏所有三个主要信贷机构的顶级评级，因为标准普尔在2011年和今年早些时候将该国降级。

The last time the U.S. had a negative outlook on its credit rating was in 2011, when S&P downgraded the country’s rating, which led to the departure of then-Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and sparked a 12% crash in the stock market at the time.

美国上一次对信用评级的看法是在2011年，当时标准普尔降低了该国的评级，这导致了当时的财政部长蒂莫西·盖斯纳（Timothy Geithner）的离开，当时股市发生了12％的崩溃。

The new downgrade comes with an assigned 3-year median probability of default of 0%, which is the lowest in Moody’s assessment matrix. Despite the low probability of default, Moody’s elaborated on the factors that drove the downgrade.

新的降级带有指定的3年违约率中位数为0％，这是穆迪评估矩阵中最低的。尽管违约的可能性很小，但穆迪详细阐述了推动降级的因素。

Rising US Deficits, Interest Costs Drive Credit Downgrade

美国赤字增加，利​​息成本推动信用降级

The credit agency cited a "substantial weakening" in the U.S. government's fiscal strength, signaled by the rapid rise in government debt over the past decade and the prospect of further deterioration in the coming years.

信贷机构列举了美国政府在过去十年中迅速上升的美国政府财政实力的“大幅削弱”，并在未来几年内进一步恶化。

It also pointed to the absence of any "material progress" on rolling back the long-term tax burden and the shortfall in efforts to broaden the tax base.

它还指出，缺乏任何“重大进展”，这会减轻长期税收负担和扩大税基的努力的短缺。

Moreover, Moody’s noted that the U.S. faces "increasing difficulties in advancing major socioeconomic legislation" despite the majority party’s control of Congress and the White House.

此外，穆迪（Moody）指出，尽管多数党对国会和白宫的控制权，但美国面临“越来越多的社会经济立法上的困难”。

It added that the government’s debt burden is likely to grow over the next 10 years, even in a moderate economic scenario, due to the rapid aging of the population, which will push up spending on Social Security, Medicare, and other entitlement programs.

它补充说，由于人口的迅速衰老，政府的债务负担可能会在未来10年内增长，即使在适度的经济情况下，这将推动对社会保障，医疗保险和其他权利计划的支出。

The agency expects the U.S. government’s debt to stabilize around 80% of GDP over the next two to three years, before eventually increasing again to 90% of GDP by 2035 in a baseline scenario.

该机构预计，在接下来的两到三年中，美国政府的债务将稳定在GDP的80％左右，然后在2035年在基线情况下最终将GDP稳定在GDP的90％。

It's worth noting that the agency's baseline scenario assumes an extension of the 2024 Trump-era tax cuts, which would deepen the U.S. deficits to 9% of GDP by 2035.

值得注意的是，该机构的基准场景假设延长了2024年特朗普时代的减税措施，这将使美国的赤字在2035年加深至GDP的9％。

If the tax cuts are extended, it could further strengthen the case for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a hedge against long-term fiscal instability.

如果减税量增加，它可以进一步加强比特币和其他加密货币的案例，以此作为对长期财政不稳定的对冲。

As the world’s reserve currency comes under more duress due to excessive spending and an accumulation of debt, investors are likely to seek alternative assets to preserve their wealth.

由于全球储备货币由于支出过多和债务积累而受到胁迫，投资者很可能会寻求替代资产来保护其财富。

Bitcoin Is Consolidating As Exchange Supply Fells

比特币随着交换供应跌倒而巩固

After a brief uptick from 1.42 million to 1.43 million between May 2 and May 7, Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges is falling once again.

在5月2日至5月7日之间从142万次提高到143万次，比特币的供应再次下降。

This short increase in exchange balances followed a more significant decline between April 17 and May 2, when the exchange supply dropped from 1.47 million to 1.42 million.

在4月17日至5月2日之间，交换余额的短暂增加之后，交换供应从147万下降到142万。

Now, the metric has resumed its downward trend from 1.43 million on May 7 to 1.41 million today, May 12.

现在，该指标已从5月7日，5月12日（5月12日）恢复了其下降趋势。

The supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is a key market indicator. When more BTC is held on exchanges, it often signals potential selling pressure, which can be bearish.

交易所中比特币的供应是关键市场指标。当更多的BTC在交易所中持有更多的BTC时，它通常会标志着潜在的销售压力，这可能是看跌的。

Conversely, a decline in exchange balances suggests holders are moving their coins to cold storage, reducing near-term sell pressure—a bullish signal.

相反，交换余额的下降表明，持有人将硬币转移到冷藏中，减轻了近期卖出压力 - 看涨信号。

The current drop in exchange supply from 1.43 million to 1.41 million may indicate that investors are preparing to hold their Bitcoin rather than sell it at the prevailing market rates.

目前的交换供应量下降从143万到141万，可能表明投资者准备持有其比特币，而不是以现成的市场价格出售。

This aligns with the broader market trend, as Bitcoin's price has stalled in a short-term consolidation phase after encountering resistance around the $105,000-$106,000 zone.

这与更广泛的市场趋势保持一致，因为比特币的价格在遇到105,000- $ 106,000的区域的阻力后，在短期合并阶段停滞不前。

As investors digest recent price action and await fresh catalysts for the next leg of the bull market, there's a potential for more lulls

随着投资者在下一个牛市的下一个领域的近期价格动作并等待新鲜的催化剂时，有更多的平息可能