儘管BTC從8.5萬美元上升到102K美元

儘管採取了這種看漲的舉動，但長期持有人的情緒仍然柔和。這種斷開連接強調了最近幾週價格行動與投資者信心之間的差異。

Bitcoin’s [BTC] long-term holder net unrealized profit loss (NUPL) has returned to 0.69—identical to the 1st of April levels—despite BTC rising from $85K to $102K during that time.

比特幣的[BTC]長期持有人淨未實現的盈利損失（NUPL）已恢復到0.69（均為4月1日的水平），儘管BTC在此期間從$ 85K上升到102K美元。

In other words, despite the price surge, long-term investor sentiment hasn’t budged. Naturally, this reflects more than just hesitation.

換句話說，儘管價格上漲，但長期投資者的情緒並未激動。自然，這反映出不僅僅是猶豫。

December 2024 buyers are maturing into long-term holders, which dilutes the overall unrealized profit share. At the time of writing, BTC traded at $103,842, up 1.74% in the past 24 hours.

2024年12月，買家正在將長期持有人融入長期持有人，這稀釋了整體未實現的利潤份額。在撰寫本文時，BTC的交易價格為103,842美元，在過去24小時內增長了1.74％。

Despite this bullish move, sentiment among long-term holders remains subdued. This disconnect highlights a growing divergence between price action and investor confidence over recent weeks.

儘管採取了這種看漲的舉動，但長期持有人的情緒仍然柔和。這種斷開連接強調了最近幾週價格行動與投資者信心之間的差異。

Are whales unloading too soon?

鯨魚卸載過早嗎？

Whales have sold over 30,000 BTC in the last 72 hours, aggressively trimming their positions.

在過去的72小時內，鯨魚賣出了30,000多個BTC，積極修剪其位置。

Simultaneously, Large Holders Netflow fell off a cliff, dropping 176.22% over seven days, and 71.25% over 30 days, according to IntoTheBlock.

根據Intotheblock的數據，同時，大型持有人的Netflow從懸崖上掉下來，在7天內下降了176.22％，在30天內下降了71.25％。

This data reveals a pattern of distribution rather than accumulation. Therefore, whales appear to lack confidence in the short-term upside.

該數據揭示了分佈模式而不是積累。因此，鯨魚似乎對短期上升空間缺乏信心。

Their consistent exits from the market suggest that caution is setting in.

他們從市場上始終如一地退出表明謹慎。

If large holders continue reducing exposure, short-term momentum could weaken despite Bitcoin’s higher valuation.

如果大型持有人繼續減少曝光率，儘管比特幣的估值較高，短期勢頭可能會減弱。

Nearly all Bitcoin holders are in profit.

幾乎所有比特幣持有人都在獲利。

Over 94.88% of addresses hold BTC above their cost basis. Only 0.88% remain out of the money. While this reflects strong profitability, it also introduces distribution risk.

超過94.88％的地址持有BTC的成本基礎。只剩下0.88％的錢。儘管這反映了強大的盈利能力，但它也引入了分銷風險。

Historically, such extremes have often preceeded periods of correction.

從歷史上看，這種極端通常已經在更正的時期之前。

Therefore, the chance of broader sell pressure remains elevated. If holders rush to lock in profits, they could increase supply on the market.

因此，更廣泛的銷售壓力的機會仍然升高。如果持有人急於鎖定利潤，他們可能會增加市場上的供應。

Is rising derivatives activity masking weak conviction?

上升的衍生品活動是否掩蓋了弱信念？

Bitcoin derivatives markets show higher activity but lower conviction. Futures Volume rose 36%, while Options Volume climbed 45%. But look deeper.

比特幣衍生品市場顯示出更高的活動，但信念較低。期貨量增長了36％，而期權量增加了45％。但是看起來更深。

Meanwhile, Futures Open Interest rose only 1.5%, and Options Open Interest actually dropped 5%.

同時，期貨開放利息僅上漲了1.5％，期權開放利息實際上下降了5％。

The takeaway?

外賣？

It highlights speculative trading without strong long positioning. Traders remain cautious despite active engagement.

它突出了投機性交易而沒有強大的長時間定位。儘管有積極的參與，交易者仍然謹慎。

Therefore, current momentum lacks the deep leverage commitment seen during major rallies. Stablecoin buying power is growing.

因此，目前的動量缺乏在大型集會期間看到的深層槓桿作用。 Stablecoin購買力正在增長。

The Exchange Stablecoin Ratio rose 4.49% to 0.00005, indicating increased reserves. This suggests that capital is sitting on the sidelines, awaiting a better entry.

Exchange Stablecoin比率上升了4.49％，至0.00005，表明儲量增加。這表明資本正坐在場上，等待更好的進入。

However, it has not yet entered Bitcoin markets. So, the buildup remains potential, not realized. If Bitcoin dips, stablecoins could flood in to support price.

但是，它尚未進入比特幣市場。因此，積累仍然潛力，尚未實現。如果比特幣下降，穩定幣可能會湧入以支持價格。

But without that trigger, the demand remains inactive.

但是沒有這種觸發，需求仍然不活躍。

Is BTC’s long-term scarcity narrative growing stronger?

BTC的長期稀缺性敘事是否越來越強？

Zooming out, Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio jumped 116.67% to 43.5K, highlighting the deepening impact of the halving-induced supply shock.

放大後，比特幣的股票流比率躍升了116.67％，至43.5k，突出了減半引起的供應衝擊的加深影響。

If demand returns with strength, this reduced supply could amplify price action quickly. However, without new inflows, this bullish structure remains underutilized.

如果需求恢復力量，那麼減少的供應可以迅速擴大價格行動。但是，如果沒有新的流入，這種看漲的結構仍未得到充分利用。

Investors should track this metric closely as it reflects Bitcoin’s intrinsic long-term value.

投資者應密切跟踪該指標，因為它反映了比特幣的內在長期價值。

Bitcoin shows strength in price but weakness in conviction. Long-term holders are muted, and whales are selling. Derivatives metrics reflect uncertainty.

比特幣顯示出價格的實力，但信念弱。長期持有人靜音，鯨魚正在銷售。導數指標反映了不確定性。

Stablecoins signal readiness, but not deployment. Only scarcity supports the long-term case.

Stablecoins信號准備就緒，但沒有部署。只有稀缺支持長期案例。

Therefore, the rally’s sustainability depends on renewed demand absorbing selling pressure and validating current price levels.

因此，集會的可持續性取決於新的需求吸收銷售壓力和驗證當前​​價格水平。

As part of his broader commentary on the crypto market, Chainlink co-creator Steve Nerlich has defended the use of the term “whale” in the blockchain space.

作為他對加密市場的更廣泛評論的一部分，Chainlink共同創造者史蒂夫·內利希（Steve Nerlich）捍衛了在區塊鏈領域中使用“鯨魚”一詞的使用。

In a recent post on X, Nerlich responded to a comment that criticized the term "whale" as "anthropocentric." The commenter, an anthropologist interested in blockchain, suggested that the term "pointed towards a hierarchy with humans at the apex."

在最近關於X的帖子中，Nerlich回答了一條評論，該評論批評“鯨魚”一詞為“以人類為中心”。評論者是對區塊鏈感興趣的人類學家，他建議“指向與人類在頂點的等級制度”一詞。

Nerlich countered by saying that the term "whale" was commonly used in the blockchain community to refer to large entities, such as exchanges or DeFi protocols, and that it was not intended to be disrespectful. He also noted that the term "pointed towards an ontology of distributed ledgers, not towards humans or apex predators."

內利希（Nerlich）說，“鯨魚”一詞在區塊鏈社區中通常用於指代大型實體，例如交流或defi協議，並且不打算不尊重。他還指出，“指向分佈式分類帳的本體論，而不是針對人類或最高掠食者”。

The Chainlink co-creator added that while he found the anthropologist's perspective interesting, he ultimately preferred to use terms that were familiar and widely used within the blockchain community.

Chainlink共同創造者補充說，儘管他發現人類學家的觀點很有趣，但他最終寧願使用熟悉的術語，並在區塊鏈社區中廣泛使用。

Nerlich's comments come amid a broader conversation about the language used in the crypto space. As the industry matures, there is a growing need for terms that are both accurate and respectful.

Nerlich的評論是關於加密空間中使用的語言的更廣泛的對話。隨著行業的成熟，對既準確又尊重的術語的需求越來越大。

The use of the term "whale" in the blockchain context is

在區塊鏈上下文中使用“鯨魚”一詞的使用是