比特币（BTC）价格分析：尽管CPI印刷自2021年以来，BTC仍未做出反应

除了少量鞭子外，比特币的价格实际上未能对自2021年以来最柔软的CPI印刷作出反应。

Despite the softest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading since 2021 and subsequent reports of dropping Bitcoin dominance and Coinbase premium, investors shouldn't get ahead of themselves.

尽管自2021年以来的消费者价格指数（CPI）的阅读量最高，并且随后关于比特币优势和Coinbase Premium的报告，但投资者不应该超越自己。

After a minor whipsaw, Bitcoin’s price effectively failed to react to the softest CPI print. As the upcoming FOMC meeting in September approaches, it will be crucial for investors to understand how this impacts the crypto market.

经过少量鞭打之后，比特币的价格实际上未能对最柔软的CPI印刷品做出反应。随着即将在9月的FOMC会议临近，投资者了解这如何影响加密市场至关重要。

Moreover, with the reports of dropping Bitcoin dominance and Coinbase premium, it might be time for BTC price to cool off. From the chart, investors can expect consolidation or a correction in the coming weeks.

此外，随着降低比特币优势和Coinbase Premium的报道，BTC价格可能是时候冷静下来了。从图表中，投资者可以期望在未来几周内进行合并或更正。

Bitcoin Dominance & Coinbase Premium Drops

比特币优势和共插键溢价

Bitcoin dominance, which measures the market cap of BTC relative to the total crypto market cap, has dropped roughly 5% from 65.38% to 61.96%. This pullback indicates that the profit-taking and capital rotation are underway as Bitcoin (BTC) is down 2% from Monday’s high of $105.8k, leaving BTC to trade at $103.6k. It makes sense, considering BTC price is just 3.91% away from reaching an all-time high on Monday, while altcoins are still 60% to 80% down from their ATHs.

比特币优势衡量了BTC相对于总加密市值的衡量标准上限，已从65.38％下降至61.96％。此回调表明，由于比特币（BTC）比周一的高价105.8K的高价下降了2％，因此利润赚钱和资本轮换正在进行中，而BTC的交易价格为103.6万美元。考虑到BTC的价格距离周一的历史高度仅3.91％，这是有道理的，而Altcoins的价格仍然比其ATHS下降60％至80％。

As noted above, the chances of BTC price ranging now are higher than ever. Suggesting this outlook is the decline in Coinbase premium, which clearly illustrates the lack of demand from US investors. A higher demand from US investors often pushes Bitcoin’s value higher on Coinbase compared to another popular exchange, Binance.

如上所述，现在BTC价格范围的机会比以往任何时候都高。表明这种前景是Coinbase Premium的下降，这清楚地表明了美国投资者缺乏需求。与另一个流行的交易所Binance相比，美国投资者的需求更高，通常会提高比特币在Coinbase上的价值。

Startegy (formerly MicroStrategy) and other well-known institutions in the US use Coinabse to buy BTCs. Hence, the buying pressure can sometimes be spotted in the orderbooks, giving traders an edge. A drop in Coinbase premium indicates that this demand is drying up.

Startegy（以前是MicroStrategy）和美国其他知名机构使用Coinabse购买BTC。因此，有时可以在订购手册中发现购买压力，从而使交易员有优势。 Coinbase Premium的下降表明这一需求正在枯竭。

What’s Next for BTC Price?

BTC价格下一步是多少？

The US CPI came in at 2.3%, lower than the forecast of 2.4%, making it the softest inflation reading since 2021. Despite this slightly bullish announcement, the BTC price continued to slide lower. As explained above, profit-taking and capital rotation induced a drop in Bitcoin dominance and a declining Coinbase premium, all of which dampened the optimism.

美国CPI的收入为2.3％，低于2.4％的预测，这是自2021年以来的通货膨胀率最柔软的读数。尽管有一些乐观的宣布，但BTC的价格仍在降低。如上所述，利润和资本旋转引起了比特币优势的下降和Coinbase溢价的下降，所有这些都削弱了乐观。

With a low CPI print, the Federal Reserve should be incentivized to cut the target rate by at least 25 basis points. At least many investors are anticipating a rate cut in the next meeting. However, Jim Bianco of Bianco Research notes that the chances of a Fed cut are reducing with every major economic release since May 1, including the FOMC meeting. Bianco added,

由于CPI印刷较低，应激励美联储至少将目标利率降低25个基点。至少许多投资者预计在下一次会议上会降低税率。但是，比安科研究的吉姆·比安科（Jim Bianco）指出，自5月1日以来，包括FOMC会议在内的每一次重大经济发行，美联储削减的机会都在减少。比安科补充说，

“The next FOMC meeting with a better than 50% probability of a cut is now September 17 (currently 60%). Less than two weeks ago, this probability was more than 100%. If this trend holds, the next cut will be pushed out to December soon.

“下次的FOMC会议以超过50％的削减概率为9月17日（目前为60％）。不到两周前，这种概率大于100％以上。如果这种趋势成立，下一个削减趋势将降到至12月。

Will the Fed cut rates? It is uncertain. However, the CME Fed Watch Tool showcases a 51.4% odds of a 25 bps rate cut in September. As noted by Bianco, this number could shrink a lot in the coming days, which does not help with Bitcoin price forecasting.

美联储会降低费率吗？这是不确定的。但是，CME FED手表工具在9月份降低了25个基点的比例为51.4％。正如比安科（Bianco）所指出的那样，这个数字在未来几天可能会缩小很多，这无助于比特币价格预测。

Key Levels to Watch

观看的关键水平

With so much uncertainity in the medium-term timeframe, let’s focus on what Bitcoin price has to say for this week.

由于中期时间范围如此之多，让我们专注于本周比特币的价格。

The daily chart shows BTC price is teetering above a key value area, extending from $102.6k to $93.1k. This zone is where 70% of the volume was traded between November 2024 and February 2025. Based on the Auction Market Theory principles, an acceptance below $102.6k could lead to a rotation toward the value area’s lower limit at $93.1k.

每日图表显示，BTC价格在关键价值面积上方摇摇欲坠，从$ 102.6K延长至$ 93.1K。该区域是2024年11月至2025年2月之间交易数量的70％的地方。根据拍卖市场理论的原则，低于$ 102.6K的接受度可能会导致向价值区域的下限旋转，价格为93.1k美元。

Hence, the short-term level to watch is $102.6k, below which BTC price could trigger a steep correction.

因此，要观看的短期水平为102.6万美元，低于BTC的价格可能会引发陡峭的校正。

On the flip side, if buyers show strength around $102.6k, Bitcoin price could bounce here, showcasing strength and continuation of the uptrend. In such a case, BTC could revisit ATH at $109k and potentially push past it to reach the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level at $118.7k, followed by the 261.8% Fib level at $135.5k. Both of these outlooks are extremely bullish, hence investors need to exercise caution.

另一方面，如果买家的实力约为102.6万美元，则比特币价格可能会在这里反弹，从而展示了上升趋势的实力和延续。在这种情况下，BTC可以以10.9万美元的价格重新审视ATH，并可能将其推高，以达到161.8％的斐波那契延长水平为118.7K，然后以261.8％的FIB水平为$ 135.5K。这两种前景都是非常看好的，因此投资者需要谨慎行事。

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

常见问题（常见问题解答）

1. Why is Bitcoin's price expected to consolidate or correct?

1。为什么比特币的价格会合并或正确？

2. How will the upcoming FOMC meeting impact Bitcoin's price?

2。即将到来的FOMC会议将如何影响比特币的价格？

3. What are the key levels to watch for Bitcoin's price?

3。要注意比特币价格的关键水平是多少？