比特币在自己的车道上：深入研究其相对强度的激增

我在4月初写了一篇关于比特币（BTC-USD）相对强度的文章，因为与美国股票相比，当时比特币在当时提供了更多的Alpha。

I penned an article back in early April highlighting the relative strength of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) compared to U.S. equities, a perspective I felt was being largely overlooked at the time as BTC’s price action was unfolding rapidly in the mid $40k range following the apex in early 2022.

我在4月初写了一篇文章，强调了比特币（BTC-USD）的相对强度与美国股票相比，我觉得这一观点在当时被忽略了，因为BTC的价格行动在2022年初的最高点之后的40k $ 40k范围内迅速展开。

This thesis wasn’t something I developed in a vacuum, as I’d been following the narrative of "maximal Bitcoin" closely over the past year or two, a theory that essentially claims the cryptocurrency is capable of generating superior returns over the long term compared to traditional assets like U.S. equities.

这篇论文并不是我在真空中开发的，因为我在过去的一两年中一直遵循“最大比特币”的叙述，这一理论本质上声称加密货币能够长期在长期内与美国股票等传统资产产生较高的回报。

At the time, I felt this thesis was playing out in the markets' actions, and I preferred BTC’s setup compared to the S&P 500 (SPX) or the Nasdaq 100 (NDX). BTC was quickly approaching the $50k level after forming a base in the mid $30ks following the 2022 downturn, while the major U.S. equity indices were still struggling to break out of their respective trading ranges.

当时，我觉得这篇论文在市场的行动中发挥了作用，与标准普尔500指数（SPX）或NASDAQ 100（NDX）相比，我更喜欢BTC的设置。在2022年下滑之后，BTC在成立了30k的基地后，迅速接近了5万美元的水平，而美国主要的股票指数仍在努力摆脱各自的交易范围。

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100

标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克100

Source: StockCharts

资料来源：Stockcharts

The optimists on U.S. equities were still focused on the potential for a breakout from the bear market highs, but I felt this view was becoming increasingly crowded. At the same time, I observed that BTC was quickly approaching the key $50k resistance level, a level which if cleared could lead to a substantial price increase for the cryptocurrency.

对美国股票的乐观主义者仍然集中在熊市高点中突破的潜力，但我觉得这种观点越来越拥挤。同时，我观察到BTC迅速接近了5万美元的电阻水平，如果被清除，这可能会导致加密货币的价格大幅上涨。

Now, a few months later, it appears that BTC has indeed continued its relative strength in outperforming U.S. equities, a trend which I believe could continue as we head into the second half of the year.

现在，几个月后，似乎BTC确实在胜过美国股票方面的相对实力确实持续了，我认为这一趋势可以持续到我们进入下半年。

BTC has surged past the $50k level and is now trading above $400k, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have pulled back sharply after failing to follow through on their respective breakout attempts.

BTC已经超过了5万美元的水平，现在的交易价格超过了40万美元，而标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克100号的交易未能遵循各自的突破性尝试后急剧退缩。

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100

标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克100

Source: StockCharts

资料来源：Stockcharts

As we can see from the chart above, the S&P 500 topped out in August 2023 at 5248, just a few points shy of the bear market highs of 5244 which were set in January 2022.

从上面的图表中可以看到，标准普尔500指数于2023年8月在5248年登上，比2022年1月的熊市高点仅几分5244。

After rolling over from the highs, the major U.S. equity index quickly declined to lows of 4114 in March 2023 before stabilizing and rallying once again to retest the highs in May 2023.

从高点滚过来后，美国主要股票指数在2023年3月迅速下降到4114的低点，然后再次稳定和集会，再次在2023年5月重新测试高点。

After failing to follow through to new highs, the S&P 500 pulled back sharply, dropping to lows of 3509 in March 2023.

在未能遵循新的高点之后，标准普尔500指数急剧向后拉，在2023年3月下降到3509的低点。

The Nasdaq 100 also pulled back sharply after failing to follow through on a breakout attempt above the 2022 highs.

纳斯达克100号在未能遵循2022高高的突破尝试后也急剧退缩。

After topping out at 18000 in August 2023, the tech-heavy index pulled back quickly to lows of 10800 in March 2023 before stabilizing and rallying once again to retest the highs in May 2023.

在2023年8月在18000年达到18000年之后，该高科技指数于2023年3月向后迅速降至10800年的低点，然后再次稳定并集会，以重新升级到2023年5月重新测试高点。

The final attempt to breakout was met with selling pressure, and the index pulled back sharply, dropping to lows of 9668 in March 2023.

最终的突破尝试是卖出的压力，该指数急剧向后拉，在2023年3月下降到9668的低点。

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100

标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克100

Source: StockCharts

资料来源：Stockcharts

The optimists on U.S. equities may argue that the pullback in the major U.S. equity indices was to be expected after the rapid rally from the March 2023 lows.

美国股票的乐观主义者可能会争辩说，在2023年3月的低点迅速集会之后，美国主要股票指数的回调将被期望。

However, I believe that the pessimistic outlook on U.S. equities is becoming increasingly crowded at this point in time, especially as we factor in the potential for the Fed to keep interest rates elevated in order to tame inflation.

但是，我认为，在此时间点，对美国股票的悲观前景越来越拥挤，尤其是当我们考虑到美联储保持利率升高以使通货膨胀率提高的潜力时。

On the other hand, I still prefer the setup for BTC, which I think stands to benefit more from a pessimistic macroeconomic outlook.

另一方面，我仍然更喜欢BTC的设置，我认为这可以从悲观的宏观经济前景中受益。

The cryptocurrency has continued to rise despite the bleak economic reports, and I observed that BTC was showing relative strength even during the 2022 bear market.

尽管经济报道惨淡，但加密货币仍在继续上升，我观察到，即使在2022年的熊市中，BTC也表现出相对的力量。

At the beginning of the year, the narrative was that BTC would be affected negatively by the FTX collapse, but I felt that the cryptocurrency could still perform well if it held the $25k level, a scenario which ultimately played out as BTC went on to rally past the $30k level.

在今年年初，叙述是BTC会受到FTX崩溃的负面影响，但是我觉得如果加密货币保持25,000美元的水平，这种加密货币仍然可以表现良好，这种情况最终在BTC持续到30k级别的情况下进行。

After dropping to lows of $25111 in November 2022 following the FTX bankruptcy, BTC stabilized and began to rally, eventually testing the 2022 highs of $52483 in March 2023.

FTX破产后，在2022年11月下降到25111美元的低点后，BTC稳定并开始集会，最终在2023年3月的2022年高点上测试了52483美元。

Following the rejection

拒绝之后