比特幣（BTC）價格分析：儘管CPI印刷自2021年以來，BTC仍未做出反應

除了少量鞭子外，比特幣的價格實際上未能對自2021年以來最柔軟的CPI印刷作出反應。

Despite the softest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading since 2021 and subsequent reports of dropping Bitcoin dominance and Coinbase premium, investors shouldn't get ahead of themselves.

儘管自2021年以來的消費者價格指數（CPI）的閱讀量最高，並且隨後關於比特幣優勢和Coinbase Premium的報告，但投資者不應該超越自己。

After a minor whipsaw, Bitcoin’s price effectively failed to react to the softest CPI print. As the upcoming FOMC meeting in September approaches, it will be crucial for investors to understand how this impacts the crypto market.

經過少量鞭打之後，比特幣的價格實際上未能對最柔軟的CPI印刷品做出反應。隨著即將在9月的FOMC會議臨近，投資者了解這如何影響加密市場至關重要。

Moreover, with the reports of dropping Bitcoin dominance and Coinbase premium, it might be time for BTC price to cool off. From the chart, investors can expect consolidation or a correction in the coming weeks.

此外，隨著降低比特幣優勢和Coinbase Premium的報導，BTC價格可能是時候冷靜下來了。從圖表中，投資者可以期望在未來幾週內進行合併或更正。

Bitcoin Dominance & Coinbase Premium Drops

比特幣優勢和共插鍵溢價

Bitcoin dominance, which measures the market cap of BTC relative to the total crypto market cap, has dropped roughly 5% from 65.38% to 61.96%. This pullback indicates that the profit-taking and capital rotation are underway as Bitcoin (BTC) is down 2% from Monday’s high of $105.8k, leaving BTC to trade at $103.6k. It makes sense, considering BTC price is just 3.91% away from reaching an all-time high on Monday, while altcoins are still 60% to 80% down from their ATHs.

比特幣優勢衡量了BTC相對於總加密市值的衡量標准上限，已從65.38％下降至61.96％。此回調表明，由於比特幣（BTC）比周一的高價105.8K的高價下降了2％，因此利潤賺錢和資本輪換正在進行中，而BTC的交易價格為103.6萬美元。考慮到BTC的價格距離週一的歷史高度僅3.91％，這是有道理的，而Altcoins的價格仍然比其ATHS下降60％至80％。

As noted above, the chances of BTC price ranging now are higher than ever. Suggesting this outlook is the decline in Coinbase premium, which clearly illustrates the lack of demand from US investors. A higher demand from US investors often pushes Bitcoin’s value higher on Coinbase compared to another popular exchange, Binance.

如上所述，現在BTC價格範圍的機會比以往任何時候都高。表明這種前景是Coinbase Premium的下降，這清楚地表明了美國投資者缺乏需求。與另一個流行的交易所Binance相比，美國投資者的需求更高，通常會提高比特幣在Coinbase上的價值。

Startegy (formerly MicroStrategy) and other well-known institutions in the US use Coinabse to buy BTCs. Hence, the buying pressure can sometimes be spotted in the orderbooks, giving traders an edge. A drop in Coinbase premium indicates that this demand is drying up.

Startegy（以前是MicroStrategy）和美國其他知名機構使用Coinabse購買BTC。因此，有時可以在訂購手冊中發現購買壓力，從而使交易員有優勢。 Coinbase Premium的下降表明這一需求正在枯竭。

What’s Next for BTC Price?

BTC價格下一步是多少？

The US CPI came in at 2.3%, lower than the forecast of 2.4%, making it the softest inflation reading since 2021. Despite this slightly bullish announcement, the BTC price continued to slide lower. As explained above, profit-taking and capital rotation induced a drop in Bitcoin dominance and a declining Coinbase premium, all of which dampened the optimism.

美國CPI的收入為2.3％，低於2.4％的預測，這是自2021年以來的通貨膨脹率最柔軟的讀數。儘管有一些樂觀的宣布，但BTC的價格仍在降低。如上所述，利潤和資本旋轉引起了比特幣優勢的下降和Coinbase溢價的下降，所有這些都削弱了樂觀。

With a low CPI print, the Federal Reserve should be incentivized to cut the target rate by at least 25 basis points. At least many investors are anticipating a rate cut in the next meeting. However, Jim Bianco of Bianco Research notes that the chances of a Fed cut are reducing with every major economic release since May 1, including the FOMC meeting. Bianco added,

由於CPI印刷較低，應激勵美聯儲至少將目標利率降低25個基點。至少許多投資者預計在下一次會議上會降低稅率。但是，比安科研究的吉姆·比安科（Jim Bianco）指出，自5月1日以來，包括FOMC會議在內的每一次重大經濟發行，美聯儲削減的機會都在減少。比安科補充說，

“The next FOMC meeting with a better than 50% probability of a cut is now September 17 (currently 60%). Less than two weeks ago, this probability was more than 100%. If this trend holds, the next cut will be pushed out to December soon.

“下次的FOMC會議以超過50％的削減概率為9月17日（目前為60％）。不到兩週前，這種概率大於100％以上。如果這種趨勢成立，下一個削減趨勢將降到至12月。

Will the Fed cut rates? It is uncertain. However, the CME Fed Watch Tool showcases a 51.4% odds of a 25 bps rate cut in September. As noted by Bianco, this number could shrink a lot in the coming days, which does not help with Bitcoin price forecasting.

美聯儲會降低費率嗎？這是不確定的。但是，CME FED手錶工具在9月份降低了25個基點的比例為51.4％。正如比安科（Bianco）所指出的那樣，這個數字在未來幾天可能會縮小很多，這無助於比特幣價格預測。

Key Levels to Watch

觀看的關鍵水平

With so much uncertainity in the medium-term timeframe, let’s focus on what Bitcoin price has to say for this week.

由於中期時間範圍如此之多，讓我們專注於本週比特幣的價格。

The daily chart shows BTC price is teetering above a key value area, extending from $102.6k to $93.1k. This zone is where 70% of the volume was traded between November 2024 and February 2025. Based on the Auction Market Theory principles, an acceptance below $102.6k could lead to a rotation toward the value area’s lower limit at $93.1k.

每日圖表顯示，BTC價格在關鍵價值面積上方搖搖欲墜，從$ 102.6K延長至$ 93.1K。該區域是2024年11月至2025年2月之間交易數量的70％的地方。根據拍賣市場理論的原則，低於$ 102.6K的接受度可能會導致向價值區域的下限旋轉，價格為93.1k美元。

Hence, the short-term level to watch is $102.6k, below which BTC price could trigger a steep correction.

因此，要觀看的短期水平為102.6萬美元，低於BTC的價格可能會引發陡峭的校正。

On the flip side, if buyers show strength around $102.6k, Bitcoin price could bounce here, showcasing strength and continuation of the uptrend. In such a case, BTC could revisit ATH at $109k and potentially push past it to reach the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level at $118.7k, followed by the 261.8% Fib level at $135.5k. Both of these outlooks are extremely bullish, hence investors need to exercise caution.

另一方面，如果買家的實力約為102.6萬美元，則比特幣價格可能會在這裡反彈，從而展示了上升趨勢的實力和延續。在這種情況下，BTC可以以10.9萬美元的價格重新審視ATH，並可能將其推高，以達到161.8％的斐波那契延長水平為118.7K，然後以261.8％的FIB水平為$ 135.5K。這兩種前景都是非常看好的，因此投資者需要謹慎行事。

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

常見問題（常見問題解答）

1. Why is Bitcoin's price expected to consolidate or correct?

1。為什麼比特幣的價格會合併或正確？

2. How will the upcoming FOMC meeting impact Bitcoin's price?

2。即將到來的FOMC會議將如何影響比特幣的價格？

3. What are the key levels to watch for Bitcoin's price?

3。要注意比特幣價格的關鍵水平是多少？