比特币（BTC）的5个原因很快将设定新的历史最高水平（ATH）

本文分析了支持比特币可能达到新峰的预测的五个关键原因。

Bitcoin’s (BTC) climb above $100,000 has strengthened confidence in predictions that it will set a new all-time high (ATH) soon.

比特币（BTC）攀升至100,000美元以上的攀登已经增强了人们对很快将创造新的历史最高水平（ATH）的预测信心。

Based on on-chain data, accumulation trends, and market sentiment, there are several compelling reasons to believe Bitcoin may reach a new peak. This article analyzes five key metrics that support that prediction.

基于链上数据，积累趋势和市场情绪，有几个令人信服的理由相信比特币可能会达到新的高峰。本文分析了支持该预测的五个关键指标。

5 Reasons Highlighting Bitcoin’s Potential to Reach a New ATH in May

五个原因强调了比特币在5月到达新ATH的潜力

The first reason is the accumulation of whales during May. Data from Glassnode shows that wallets of all sizes are actively accumulating BTC. Glassnode’s “Trend Accumulation Score by Cohort” chart vividly displays this trend.

第一个原因是五月份鲸鱼的积累。来自玻璃节的数据表明，各种大小的钱包都积极积累BTC。 GlassNode的“趋势积累得分划分为队列”图表生动地显示了这一趋势。

In early April, the brunt of the accumulation fell on large whale wallets holding over 10,000 BTC. But by May, the accumulation trend had cascaded to smaller wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. Meanwhile, wallets holding less than 100 BTC also showed increasing activity, reflected in the fading red colors on the chart throughout May.

4月初，积累的首当其冲落在拥有超过10,000 BTC的大鲸鱼钱包上。但是到5月，累积趋势已层叠在较小的钱包中，容纳100至1,000 BTC。同时，持有少于100 BTC的钱包也显示出活动的增加，反映在整个5月的图表上的淡色。

Additionally, according to Santiment, in the past 30 days, whale wallets have accumulated another 83,105 BTC. This accumulation has helped flip the Spot Volume Delta into positive territory, giving Bitcoin momentum to push higher.

此外，根据Santiment的说法，在过去的30天中，鲸鱼钱包又积累了83,105 BTC。这种积累有助于将斑点数量增长到积极的领域，从而使比特币动量推动更高。

“The aggressive accumulation from these large wallets— it may be a matter of time until Bitcoin’s coveted $110,000 all-time high level is breached, particularly after the US & China tariff pause,” Santiment predicted.

Santiment预测：“这些大钱包中积极的积累 - 可能是时间问题，直到比特币令人垂涎的110,000美元的历史最高水平被破坏，尤其是在美国和中国关税暂停之后。”

The second reason is that Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached a record high of 14 million BTC, which is worth over $1.4 billion.

第二个原因是比特币的流动性供应量已达到创纪录的1400万BTC，价值超过14亿美元。

The rise in illiquid supply indicates that long-term investors (HODLers) are holding tightly to their Bitcoin and have no intention of selling in the short term. Consequently, this reduces the circulating supply, and as demand rises, Bitcoin’s price can break out more easily.

流动性供应量的增加表明，长期投资者（Hodlers）紧紧抓住其比特币，并且无意在短期内出售。因此，这减少了循环供应，并且随着需求的上升，比特币的价格更容易爆发。

The third reason comes from small investors. Although a new wave of retail investors has yet to emerge fully, according to CryptoQuant, retail trading volume on Binance—the world’s largest crypto exchange—has started to rebound after a period of decline.

第三个原因来自小型投资者。尽管零售投资者的新浪潮尚未充分出现，但经过一段时期的衰落，Binance（全球最大的加密货币交易所）的零售交易量（全球最大的加密交易所）开始反弹。

Additionally, Carmelo Alemán, an analyst at CryptoQuant, also observed that while retail volume hasn’t spiked yet, it has shown positive signs.

此外，CryptoQuant的分析师CarmeloAlemán还观察到，尽管零售量还没有飙升，但它显示出正面的迹象。

“In the coming months, as retail participation increases, we can expect to see growth in Active Addresses, UTXO Count, and metrics like New Addresses and Transfer Volume, reflecting the sustained expansion of the crypto ecosystem,” Alemán predicted.

Alemán预测：“在接下来的几个月中，随着零售参与的增加，我们可以期望看到主动地址，UTXO计数以及新地址和转移量等指标的增长，这反映了加密生态系统的持续扩展。”

The fourth reason analysts are closely watching is the correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the global M2 money supply.

分析师密切关注的第四个原因是比特币价格与全球M2货币供应之间的相关性。

According to crypto expert Colin Talks Crypto, the growth in M2— a measure of the money supply from central banks like the Fed, ECB, and BoJ—has accurately predicted Bitcoin’s rise from $76,000 to $105,000 since April 8. Based on this trend, Colin forecasts Bitcoin could reach $120,000 in May.

根据加密专家Colin Talks Crypto的说法，M2的增长是对美联储，欧洲央行和Boj等中央银行供应的衡量标准，已经准确地预测了比特币从4月8日起从76,000美元上升到105,000美元。根据这一趋势，基于这一趋势，Colin Bitcoasts预测比特币5月可能达到120,000美元。

“Bitcoin is still right on track with Global M2. $120,000+ by the end of May?” Colin said.

“比特币仍与全球M2。到5月底到$ 120,000以上？”科林说。

This correlation isn’t new. Historically, Bitcoin tends to benefit and rise sharply when global liquidity increases. Given the current macroeconomic conditions, expanding the money supply may continue to fuel Bitcoin’s growth.

这种相关并不是什么新鲜事。从历史上看，当全球流动性增加时，比特币往往会受益并急剧上升。鉴于当前的宏观经济状况，扩大货币供应可能会继续助长比特币的增长。

Finally, prediction market Polymarket shows that the probability of Bitcoin reaching a new ATH in May has risen from 11% to 60%, currently at 51%. Polymarket allows users to bet on future events, and this shift reflects growing optimism in the community.

最后，预测市场多头市场表明，比特币在5月达到新ATH的可能性已从11％上升到60％，目前为51％。 Polymarket允许用户下注未来的事件，这种转变反映了社区中日益增长的乐观情绪。

As confidence in Bitcoin’s upward potential grows, it could trigger a FOMO (fear of missing out) effect. This may attract more investors and push prices even higher.

随着对比特币向上潜力的信心的增长，它可能会引发FOMO（害怕错过）效果。这可能会吸引更多的投资者，并将价格推高甚至更高。

In fact, Bitcoin has already hit new ATHs in countries like Turkey and Argentina, where local currencies have depreciated sharply. Experts like billionaire Tim Draper predict Bitcoin will hit $250,000 by the end of 2025. Besides, Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin could reach $120,000 in Q2.

实际上，比特币已经在土耳其和阿根廷等国家遭受了新的ATH袭击，那里的当地货币急剧贬值。亿万富翁蒂姆·德雷珀（Tim Draper）这样的专家预测，比特币将在2025年底之前达到25万美元。此外，在第二季度，比特币的标准预报将达到120,000美元。