Altcoin季节可能到了，但尚未开始：这就是为什么

比特币继续徘徊在100,000美元以上，ETF的资本流入也在激增。目前，加密市场中最大的问题是：

Bitcoin has been trading above $100,000 and capital is flowing heavily into crypto ETFs. But the biggest question on everyone’s minds is: When will altcoin season truly begin?

比特币的交易超过100,000美元，资本正在大量流入加密ETF。但是每个人都想到的最大问题是：Altcoin季节何时真正开始？

What Is Altcoin Season?

什么是Altcoin季节？

Altcoin season is a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

Altcoin季节是Altcoins胜过比特币的时期。

According to Forbes, major cycles of altcoin season have occurred twice in the past, in 2017 and 2021. They were fueled by the booms of ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, and Layer-2 solutions.

根据《福布斯》的报道，过去，2017年和2021年发生了两次Altcoin季节的主要周期。

During this phase, investment capital typically shifts from Bitcoin into altcoins, driving rapid price increases, particularly for large-cap and mid-cap altcoins – along with a surge in trading volume and growing FOMO sentiment.

在此阶段，投资资本通常从比特币转移到山寨币，推动价格迅速上涨，尤其是对于大型和中型售出的山寨币，以及交易量的激增和FOMO的增长。

Key Indicator: Bitcoin Dominance

关键指标：比特币优势

One of the most important indicators for identifying the start of an altcoin season is the Bitcoin Dominance Index (BTC.D), which indicates the percentage of Bitcoin’s market capitalization compared to the entire crypto market.

确定Altcoin季节开始的最重要指标之一是比特币优势指数（BTC.D），这表明比特币与整个加密货币市场相比，比特币的市值百分比。

According to data from TradingView, BTC.D peaked at 57.8% in late April, before slightly decreasing to around 55.2% by mid-May. As of now, TradingView reports that Bitcoin dominance stands at 63%, a significant increase from the 51% level recorded in November 2024.

根据TradingView的数据，BTC.D在4月下旬达到57.8％的峰值，到五月中旬略微下降至约55.2％。截至目前，TradingView报告说，比特币优势占63％，比2024年11月记录的51％水平显着增加。

According to well-known cycle analyst, Benjamin Cowen, if BTC.D drops below 52%, “that could be the confirmation signal that altcoin season is underway.”

根据著名的周期分析师本杰明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）的说法，如果BTC.D降至52％以下，“这可能是Altcoin季节正在进行的确认信号。”

However, Cowen also warned:

但是，考恩还警告：

“Not every drop in BTC dominance results in an alt season. What matters is the inflow of new capital into altcoins – not just internal rotation.”

“并非BTC优势的每一步都会导致ALT季节。重要的是新资本流入AltCoins，而不仅仅是内部轮换。”

Capital Flows and Market Sentiment

资本流和市场情绪

Data from CoinShares shows that investment funds have poured over $14 billion into Bitcoin ETFs since the beginning of the year. However, inflows into ETH and other altcoins are significantly lower, accounting for only about 8% of the total capital — reflecting a defensive mindset among institutional investors, who continue to prioritize what they deem the safest asset in the crypto space.

Coinshares的数据表明，自今年年初以来，投资基金已将超过140亿美元的资金投入到比特币ETF中。但是，流入ETH和其他Altcoins的流入大大降低，仅占总资本的8％，这反映了机构投资者的防御性思维，他们继续优先考虑其认为是加密货币领域中最安全的资产。

Currently, the ETH/BTC pair is still locked in a long-term downtrend since late 2021, with the 0.065 level serving as a critical resistance. This threshold is viewed as the “confidence trigger”— a point at which the market may begin to believe that altcoins are ready to enter a strong upward cycle.

目前，自2021年底以来，ETH/BTC对仍在长期下降趋势中被锁定，0.065级具有关键的阻力。该阈值被视为“信心触发”，这一点可能开始相信AltCoins准备进入强大的向上周期。

Without a decisive breakout above this level, supported by strong volume and confirmation from broader market flows, even a rising Bitcoin price may not be enough to ignite a true altcoin season. In essence, we need more than just bullish sentiment for BTC; we need Ethereum to spearhead the move.

如果没有高于此水平的决定性突破，得到了强劲的数量和更广泛的市场流量的确认，即使是比特币价格上涨也可能不足以点燃真正的Altcoin季节。从本质上讲，我们不仅需要对BTC的看涨情绪。我们需要以太坊才能率领这一举动。

As of May 14, ETH/BTC is hovering around 0.02 – still a long way from the threshold needed to confirm a trend reversal.

截至5月14日，ETH/BTC徘徊在0.02左右 - 距离确认趋势逆转所需的阈值还有很长的路要走。

Quantitative Indicators and On-Chain Data

定量指标和链上数据

The Altcoin Season Index currently stands at 24, signaling “Bitcoin Season.” The Altcoin Month Index is at 57, and the Altcoin Year Index is at 27 – all below the 75-point threshold used to identify an altcoin season.

AltCoin季节指数目前为24，标志着“比特币季节”。 AltCoin月指数为57，而Altcoin年指数为27 - 全部低于用于识别AltCoin季节的75分阈值。

These metrics are based on the performance of the top 50 coins (excluding stablecoins and asset-backed tokens) compared to Bitcoin over the past 90 days.

这些指标基于在过去90天内与比特币相比，前50个硬币（不包括稳定的代币和资产支持的令牌）的性能。

Followed by Dune Analytics, the number of new active wallets on chains like Solana and Base is rising again. Meanwhile, Ethereum gas fees remain below 30 gwei, indicating that the market isn’t overheated yet but also suggests ample room for future growth.

其次是Dune Analytics，诸如Solana和Base等链条上的新活动钱包的数量再次上升。同时，以太坊汽油费仍低于30 GWEI，这表明市场尚未过热，但也暗示了未来增长的足够空间。

There is a sharp divergence in forecasts for the 2025 altcoin season:

2025 Altcoin季节的预测有很明显的分歧：

From a bullish perspective, altcoin season may have already begun, as altcoin market capitalization reached $1.89 trillion, surpassing its November 2021 peak of $1.79 trillion. Additionally, the Altcoin Season Index exceeded 75% on December 2, 2024, and stayed above that level for a full week, according to Blockchain Center.

从看涨的角度来看，随着Altcoin市值达到18.9万亿美元，替代币季节可能已经开始，超过了其2021年11月的峰值1.79万亿美元。此外，根据区块链中心的数据，替代币季节指数在2024年12月2日超过75％，并在整个一周的水平上停留了整个星期。

However, more cautious views – like that of Benjamin Cowen, suggest that the altcoin season could be delayed, as BTC dominance remains high (60%) and monetary policy uncertainty lingers. Cowen warns that a lack of fresh capital and unsustainable performance could cause the market to stall.

但是，更谨慎的观点（例如本杰明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen））表明，由于BTC的优势保持较高（60％）和货币政策不确定性持续存在，因此Altcoin季节可能会延迟。 Cowen警告说，缺乏新的资本和不可持续的绩效可能导致市场停滞不前。

From a selective outlook, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, believes that only altcoins with strong fundamentals, real revenue, and ETF potential are likely to outperform in this cycle. “The era when everything goes up is over,” he said, implying a more mature and selective market environment.

从选择性的前景来看，CryptoQuant的首席执行官Ki Young Ju认为，只有具有强大基础，实际收入和ETF潜力的山寨币在这一周期中可能胜过表现。他说：“一切都结束了。”他暗示着一个更加成熟和选择性的市场环境。

Key Drivers Behind Altcoin Season

Altcoin季节背后的主要驱动力

Institutional capital remains a dominant force in crypto markets. Spot Bitcoin

机构资本仍然是加密货币市场中的主要力量。现场比特币