Altcoin季節可能到了，但尚未開始：這就是為什麼

比特幣繼續徘徊在100,000美元以上，ETF的資本流入也在激增。目前，加密市場中最大的問題是：

Bitcoin has been trading above $100,000 and capital is flowing heavily into crypto ETFs. But the biggest question on everyone’s minds is: When will altcoin season truly begin?

比特幣的交易超過100,000美元，資本正在大量流入加密ETF。但是每個人都想到的最大問題是：Altcoin季節何時真正開始？

What Is Altcoin Season?

什麼是Altcoin季節？

Altcoin season is a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

Altcoin季節是Altcoins勝過比特幣的時期。

According to Forbes, major cycles of altcoin season have occurred twice in the past, in 2017 and 2021. They were fueled by the booms of ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, and Layer-2 solutions.

根據《福布斯》的報導，過去，2017年和2021年發生了兩次Altcoin季節的主要周期。

During this phase, investment capital typically shifts from Bitcoin into altcoins, driving rapid price increases, particularly for large-cap and mid-cap altcoins – along with a surge in trading volume and growing FOMO sentiment.

在此階段，投資資本通常從比特幣轉移到山寨幣，推動價格迅速上漲，尤其是對於大型和中型售出的山寨幣，以及交易量的激增和FOMO的增長。

Key Indicator: Bitcoin Dominance

關鍵指標：比特幣優勢

One of the most important indicators for identifying the start of an altcoin season is the Bitcoin Dominance Index (BTC.D), which indicates the percentage of Bitcoin’s market capitalization compared to the entire crypto market.

確定Altcoin季節開始的最重要指標之一是比特幣優勢指數（BTC.D），這表明比特幣與整個加密貨幣市場相比，比特幣的市值百分比。

According to data from TradingView, BTC.D peaked at 57.8% in late April, before slightly decreasing to around 55.2% by mid-May. As of now, TradingView reports that Bitcoin dominance stands at 63%, a significant increase from the 51% level recorded in November 2024.

根據TradingView的數據，BTC.D在4月下旬達到57.8％的峰值，到五月中旬略微下降至約55.2％。截至目前，TradingView報告說，比特幣優勢佔63％，比2024年11月記錄的51％水平顯著增加。

According to well-known cycle analyst, Benjamin Cowen, if BTC.D drops below 52%, “that could be the confirmation signal that altcoin season is underway.”

根據著名的周期分析師本傑明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）的說法，如果BTC.D降至52％以下，“這可能是Altcoin季節正在進行的確認信號。”

However, Cowen also warned:

但是，考恩還警告：

“Not every drop in BTC dominance results in an alt season. What matters is the inflow of new capital into altcoins – not just internal rotation.”

“並非BTC優勢的每一步都會導致ALT季節。重要的是新資本流入AltCoins，而不僅僅是內部輪換。”

Capital Flows and Market Sentiment

資本流和市場情緒

Data from CoinShares shows that investment funds have poured over $14 billion into Bitcoin ETFs since the beginning of the year. However, inflows into ETH and other altcoins are significantly lower, accounting for only about 8% of the total capital — reflecting a defensive mindset among institutional investors, who continue to prioritize what they deem the safest asset in the crypto space.

Coinshares的數據表明，自今年年初以來，投資基金已將超過140億美元的資金投入到比特幣ETF中。但是，流入ETH和其他Altcoins的流入大大降低，僅佔總資本的8％，這反映了機構投資者的防禦性思維，他們繼續優先考慮其認為是加密貨幣領域中最安全的資產。

Currently, the ETH/BTC pair is still locked in a long-term downtrend since late 2021, with the 0.065 level serving as a critical resistance. This threshold is viewed as the “confidence trigger”— a point at which the market may begin to believe that altcoins are ready to enter a strong upward cycle.

目前，自2021年底以來，ETH/BTC對仍在長期下降趨勢中被鎖定，0.065級具有關鍵的阻力。該閾值被視為“信心觸發”，這一點可能開始相信AltCoins準備進入強大的向上週期。

Without a decisive breakout above this level, supported by strong volume and confirmation from broader market flows, even a rising Bitcoin price may not be enough to ignite a true altcoin season. In essence, we need more than just bullish sentiment for BTC; we need Ethereum to spearhead the move.

如果沒有高於此水平的決定性突破，得到了強勁的數量和更廣泛的市場流量的確認，即使是比特幣價格上漲也可能不足以點燃真正的Altcoin季節。從本質上講，我們不僅需要對BTC的看漲情緒。我們需要以太坊才能率領這一舉動。

As of May 14, ETH/BTC is hovering around 0.02 – still a long way from the threshold needed to confirm a trend reversal.

截至5月14日，ETH/BTC徘徊在0.02左右 - 距離確認趨勢逆轉所需的閾值還有很長的路要走。

Quantitative Indicators and On-Chain Data

定量指標和鏈上數據

The Altcoin Season Index currently stands at 24, signaling “Bitcoin Season.” The Altcoin Month Index is at 57, and the Altcoin Year Index is at 27 – all below the 75-point threshold used to identify an altcoin season.

AltCoin季節指數目前為24，標誌著“比特幣季節”。 AltCoin月指數為57，而Altcoin年指數為27 - 全部低於用於識別AltCoin季節的75分閾值。

These metrics are based on the performance of the top 50 coins (excluding stablecoins and asset-backed tokens) compared to Bitcoin over the past 90 days.

這些指標基於在過去90天內與比特幣相比，前50個硬幣（不包括穩定的代幣和資產支持的令牌）的性能。

Followed by Dune Analytics, the number of new active wallets on chains like Solana and Base is rising again. Meanwhile, Ethereum gas fees remain below 30 gwei, indicating that the market isn’t overheated yet but also suggests ample room for future growth.

其次是Dune Analytics，諸如Solana和Base等鏈條上的新活動錢包的數量再次上升。同時，以太坊汽油費仍低於30 GWEI，這表明市場尚未過熱，但也暗示了未來增長的足夠空間。

There is a sharp divergence in forecasts for the 2025 altcoin season:

2025 Altcoin季節的預測有很明顯的分歧：

From a bullish perspective, altcoin season may have already begun, as altcoin market capitalization reached $1.89 trillion, surpassing its November 2021 peak of $1.79 trillion. Additionally, the Altcoin Season Index exceeded 75% on December 2, 2024, and stayed above that level for a full week, according to Blockchain Center.

從看漲的角度來看，隨著Altcoin市值達到18.9萬億美元，Altcoin季節可能已經開始，超過了2021年11月的峰值1.79萬億美元。此外，根據區塊鏈中心的數據，替代幣季節指數在2024年12月2日超過75％，並在整個一周的水平上停留了整個星期。

However, more cautious views – like that of Benjamin Cowen, suggest that the altcoin season could be delayed, as BTC dominance remains high (60%) and monetary policy uncertainty lingers. Cowen warns that a lack of fresh capital and unsustainable performance could cause the market to stall.

但是，更謹慎的觀點（例如本傑明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen））表明，由於BTC的優勢保持較高（60％）和貨幣政策不確定性持續存在，因此Altcoin季節可能會延遲。 Cowen警告說，缺乏新的資本和不可持續的績效可能導致市場停滯不前。

From a selective outlook, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, believes that only altcoins with strong fundamentals, real revenue, and ETF potential are likely to outperform in this cycle. “The era when everything goes up is over,” he said, implying a more mature and selective market environment.

從選擇性的前景來看，CryptoQuant的首席執行官Ki Young Ju認為，只有具有強大基礎，實際收入和ETF潛力的山寨幣在這一周期中可能勝過表現。他說：“一切都結束了。”他暗示著一個更加成熟和選擇性的市場環境。

Key Drivers Behind Altcoin Season

Altcoin季節背後的主要驅動力

Institutional capital remains a dominant force in crypto markets. Spot Bitcoin

機構資本仍然是加密貨幣市場中的主要力量。現場比特幣