XRP（加密：XRP）是下一個比特幣嗎？可能是百萬富翁製造商嗎？

在過去的幾個月中，對於加密貨幣投資者來說，這是一次瘋狂的旅程 - 這是在說些什麼。比特幣超過了100,000美元，達到109,000美元以上

It's safe to say that cryptocurrency investors have had a wild ride over the past few months. Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) crossed the $100,000 mark, reaching highs of over $109,000 just 16 years after its creation.

可以肯定地說，在過去的幾個月中，加密貨幣投資者在狂野的旅程。比特幣（Crypto：BTC）越過了100,000美元，在創造後僅16年就達到了109,000美元以上。

While the price has pulled back to around $102,000 amid broader market uncertainty, investors still seem optimistic that Bitcoin will continue to grow. That optimism has spilled over into so-called altcoins, which are looking to repeat the extreme successes of the original crypto.

儘管市場不確定性在更廣泛的市場不確定性中，價格已降至102,000美元左右，但投資者似乎仍然對比特幣繼續增長感到樂觀。這種樂觀情緒已經湧入了所謂的山寨幣，這些替代幣正在尋求重複原始加密貨幣的極端成功。

In particular, XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) has attracted a loyal following. The crypto token, which is designed to help facilitate international money transfers quickly and efficiently, has seen its price rise more than 300% over the past six months alone. Could XRP repeat the success of Bitcoin, and could it make you a millionaire?

特別是，XRP（加密：XRP）吸引了忠實的追隨者。該加密代幣旨在幫助促進國際資金快速有效地轉移，僅在過去六個月中，其價格上漲了300％以上。 XRP可以重複比特幣的成功嗎？它可以使您成為百萬富翁嗎？

A look at XRP

看XRP

Let's take a step back and examine what XRP is and why it provides value. As mentioned above, the crypto token is designed to act as a bridge between banks and other financial institutions to help them transfer money internationally. It's no secret that traditional methods are sluggish and can take days or even weeks, while XRP-enabled transfers can be settled almost instantly.

讓我們退後一步，檢查什麼是XRP以及為什麼提供價值。如上所述，加密代幣旨在充當銀行和其他金融機構之間的橋樑，以幫助他們在國際上轉移資金。傳統方法遲鈍，可能需要幾天甚至數週的時間，而啟用XRP的傳輸幾乎可以立即解決，這已經不是什麼秘密了。

The fact that XRP is designed to provide real-world value and has a record of use by the industry it's targeting makes it stand out in a market that has been overrun by meme coins. But can we really quantify that value, and is it enough to justify the enormous $135 billion market capitalization that XRP has already achieved?

XRP旨在提供現實世界中的價值並具有行業的使用記錄，這一事實使其在被Meme Coins淹沒的市場中脫穎而出。但是，我們可以真正量化該價值，並且足以證明XRP已經實現的巨額市值合理嗎？

It's difficult to come up with a direct comparison, but I think a good starting point is Visa (NYSE:V). The company operates a vast global payment network, which isn't completely dissimilar to XRP's network. Yes, there are fundamental differences, but I still think it's useful.

很難直接進行比較，但我認為一個很好的起點是Visa（NYSE：V）。該公司經營著一個龐大的全球支付網絡，這與XRP的網絡並不完全不同。是的，存在根本的差異，但我仍然認為這很有用。

Both networks are used by billions of people around the world, and they facilitate trillions of dollars in transactions each year. But while Visa handles more than 640 million transactions per day, XRP's blockchain processes just 1 million. Despite this disparity, Visa's market cap is only about five times greater than XRP's.

這兩個網絡均由世界各地數十億人使用，他們每年促進數万億美元的交易。但是，儘管Visa每天處理超過6.4億美元的交易，但XRP的區塊鏈僅處理100萬。儘管存在這種差異，但Visa的市值僅是XRP的五倍。

Now, does that seem proportional considering the vast difference in transaction volume and the fact that Visa's network is used for a broader range of transactions? It seems to me that either Visa is severely undervalued, or XRP is massively overvalued. My money is on the latter.

現在，考慮到交易量的巨大差異以及Visa的網絡被用於更廣泛的交易範圍的事實，這似乎是否成比例？在我看來，簽證被嚴重被低估了，或者XRP被高估了。我的錢在後者。

Image source: Getty Images.Maybe this isn't a completely fair comparison, so let's try another way to think about it. The claim is often made that if XRP is widely adopted, it will capture a significant portion of the hundreds of billions of dollars that banks pay in transaction fees each year.

圖像來源：Getty Images。也許這不是一個完全公平的比較，所以讓我們嘗試另一種思考方式。人們經常提出，如果XRP被廣泛採用，它將捕獲銀行每年支付的數億美元的一部分。

But the flaw in that logic, as I see it, is that the only reason banks are attracted to XRP in the first place is because its cost is minimal -- several magnitudes less than traditional methods. And it follows that even if it managed to handle transactions for the whole market, the small fees it would collect would amount to a few hundred million dollars or low billions. Again, that doesn't seem to justify the current market cap.

但是，正如我所看到的那樣，這種邏輯的缺陷是，首先將銀行吸引到XRP的唯一原因是因為其成本很小 - 幾個幅度比傳統方法少。因此，即使它設法處理了整個市場的交易，它將收取的小費用也將達到數億美元或數十億美元。同樣，這似乎並不能證明當前的市值是合理的。

The question at hand

手頭的問題

XRP may be faster and cheaper than traditional banking methods, but that doesn't guarantee adoption, and it certainly doesn't guarantee returns to investors. While there has been a surge in interest in XRP over the past few months, I'm skeptical of the token's long-term viability, especially considering how much of its future growth seems to be already priced into the token price today.

XRP可能比傳統的銀行業方法更快，更便宜，但這並不能保證採用，而且當然不能保證向投資者回報。儘管在過去的幾個月中，人們對XRP的興趣激增，但我對代幣的長期生存能力表示懷疑，尤其是考慮到今天的未來增長似乎已經被定價為當今的代幣價格。

Although I fully admit that valuing crypto is difficult and often defies a lot of traditional investing wisdom, I don't see XRP growing in the way it needs to in order to be a good investment, let alone qualify it as a potential millionaire-maker, even by the most generous standards. I would also caution readers from getting too caught up in this sort of thinking and instead adopt a diversified investment approach, focusing on the long term.

儘管我完全承認，重視加密貨幣是困難的，並且常常違反了許多傳統的投資智慧，但我認為XRP的成長方式是為了成為一項良好的投資，更不用說將其視為潛在的百萬富翁製造商，即使是最寬泛的標準也是如此。我還要警告讀者不要在這種思維中陷入困境，而是採用多元化的投資方法，重點是長期。