XRP（加密：XRP）是下一个比特币吗？可能是百万富翁制造商吗？

在过去的几个月中，对于加密货币投资者来说，这是一次疯狂的旅程 - 这是在说些什么。比特币超过了100,000美元，达到109,000美元以上

It's safe to say that cryptocurrency investors have had a wild ride over the past few months. Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) crossed the $100,000 mark, reaching highs of over $109,000 just 16 years after its creation.

可以肯定地说，在过去的几个月中，加密货币投资者在狂野的旅程。比特币（Crypto：BTC）越过了100,000美元，在创造后仅16年就达到了109,000美元以上。

While the price has pulled back to around $102,000 amid broader market uncertainty, investors still seem optimistic that Bitcoin will continue to grow. That optimism has spilled over into so-called altcoins, which are looking to repeat the extreme successes of the original crypto.

尽管市场不确定性在更广泛的市场不确定性中，价格已降至102,000美元左右，但投资者似乎仍然对比特币继续增长感到乐观。这种乐观情绪已经涌入了所谓的山寨币，这些替代币正在寻求重复原始加密货币的极端成功。

In particular, XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) has attracted a loyal following. The crypto token, which is designed to help facilitate international money transfers quickly and efficiently, has seen its price rise more than 300% over the past six months alone. Could XRP repeat the success of Bitcoin, and could it make you a millionaire?

特别是，XRP（加密：XRP）吸引了忠实的追随者。该加密代币旨在帮助促进国际资金快速有效地转移，仅在过去六个月中，其价格上涨了300％以上。 XRP可以重复比特币的成功吗？它可以使您成为百万富翁吗？

A look at XRP

看XRP

Let's take a step back and examine what XRP is and why it provides value. As mentioned above, the crypto token is designed to act as a bridge between banks and other financial institutions to help them transfer money internationally. It's no secret that traditional methods are sluggish and can take days or even weeks, while XRP-enabled transfers can be settled almost instantly.

让我们退后一步，检查什么是XRP以及为什么提供价值。如上所述，加密代币旨在充当银行和其他金融机构之间的桥梁，以帮助他们在国际上转移资金。传统方法迟钝，可能需要几天甚至数周的时间，而启用XRP的传输几乎可以立即解决，这已经不是什么秘密了。

The fact that XRP is designed to provide real-world value and has a record of use by the industry it's targeting makes it stand out in a market that has been overrun by meme coins. But can we really quantify that value, and is it enough to justify the enormous $135 billion market capitalization that XRP has already achieved?

XRP旨在提供现实世界中的价值并具有行业的使用记录，这一事实使其在被Meme Coins淹没的市场中脱颖而出。但是，我们可以真正量化该价值，并且足以证明XRP已经实现的巨额市值合理吗？

It's difficult to come up with a direct comparison, but I think a good starting point is Visa (NYSE:V). The company operates a vast global payment network, which isn't completely dissimilar to XRP's network. Yes, there are fundamental differences, but I still think it's useful.

很难直接进行比较，但我认为一个很好的起点是Visa（NYSE：V）。该公司经营着一个庞大的全球支付网络，这与XRP的网络并不完全不同。是的，存在根本的差异，但我仍然认为这很有用。

Both networks are used by billions of people around the world, and they facilitate trillions of dollars in transactions each year. But while Visa handles more than 640 million transactions per day, XRP's blockchain processes just 1 million. Despite this disparity, Visa's market cap is only about five times greater than XRP's.

这两个网络均由世界各地数十亿人使用，他们每年促进数万亿美元的交易。但是，尽管Visa每天处理超过6.4亿美元的交易，但XRP的区块链仅处理100万。尽管存在这种差异，但Visa的市值仅是XRP的五倍。

Now, does that seem proportional considering the vast difference in transaction volume and the fact that Visa's network is used for a broader range of transactions? It seems to me that either Visa is severely undervalued, or XRP is massively overvalued. My money is on the latter.

现在，考虑到交易量的巨大差异以及Visa的网络被用于更广泛的交易范围的事实，这似乎是否成比例？在我看来，签证被严重被低估了，或者XRP被高估了。我的钱在后者。

Image source: Getty Images.Maybe this isn't a completely fair comparison, so let's try another way to think about it. The claim is often made that if XRP is widely adopted, it will capture a significant portion of the hundreds of billions of dollars that banks pay in transaction fees each year.

图像来源：Getty Images。也许这不是一个完全公平的比较，所以让我们尝试另一种思考方式。人们经常提出，如果XRP被广泛采用，它将捕获银行每年支付的数亿美元的一部分。

But the flaw in that logic, as I see it, is that the only reason banks are attracted to XRP in the first place is because its cost is minimal -- several magnitudes less than traditional methods. And it follows that even if it managed to handle transactions for the whole market, the small fees it would collect would amount to a few hundred million dollars or low billions. Again, that doesn't seem to justify the current market cap.

但是，正如我所看到的那样，这种逻辑的缺陷是，首先将银行吸引到XRP的唯一原因是因为其成本很小 - 几个幅度比传统方法少。因此，即使它设法处理了整个市场的交易，它将收取的小费用也将达到数亿美元或数十亿美元。同样，这似乎并不能证明当前的市值是合理的。

The question at hand

手头的问题

XRP may be faster and cheaper than traditional banking methods, but that doesn't guarantee adoption, and it certainly doesn't guarantee returns to investors. While there has been a surge in interest in XRP over the past few months, I'm skeptical of the token's long-term viability, especially considering how much of its future growth seems to be already priced into the token price today.

XRP可能比传统的银行业方法更快，更便宜，但这并不能保证采用，而且当然不能保证向投资者回报。尽管在过去的几个月中，人们对XRP的兴趣激增，但我对代币的长期生存能力表示怀疑，尤其是考虑到今天的未来增长似乎已经被定价为当今的代币价格。

Although I fully admit that valuing crypto is difficult and often defies a lot of traditional investing wisdom, I don't see XRP growing in the way it needs to in order to be a good investment, let alone qualify it as a potential millionaire-maker, even by the most generous standards. I would also caution readers from getting too caught up in this sort of thinking and instead adopt a diversified investment approach, focusing on the long term.

尽管我完全承认，重视加密货币是困难的，并且常常违反了许多传统的投资智慧，但我认为XRP的成长方式是为了成为一项良好的投资，更不用说将其视为潜在的百万富翁制造商，即使是最宽泛的标准也是如此。我还要警告读者不要在这种思维中陷入困境，而是采用多元化的投资方法，重点是长期。