Uptober 來了，但誰會介入推動市場走高？

本週的通訊由 The Block 特別項目總監 Frank Chaparro 和 MNNC Group 的 Laura Vidiella 共同撰寫。

This column was co-written by Frank Chaparro, director of special projects at The Block, and Laura Vidiella of MNNC Group. The views expressed in this column are their own and do not reflect the opinions of their employers.

本專欄由 The Block 特別項目總監 Frank Chaparro 和 MNNC Group 的 Laura Vidiella 共同撰寫。本專欄所表達的觀點僅代表他們自己的觀點，並不反映其雇主的意見。

After Tuesday's Uptober newsletter, the market saw a downturn, despite only a 1% dip in BTC price—funny how quickly things can shift.

在周二的 Uptober 新聞簡訊發布後，儘管 BTC 價格僅下跌了 1%，但市場卻出現了低迷——有趣的是事情變化得如此之快。

Overall, it’s been another mild week, consistent with the past three months. The exception was the brief relief we saw in September when most directional funds recorded gains of 10% to 15%. This was a positive sign, especially given the challenges directional funds have faced throughout 2024. However, sentiment from fund managers and subscribers suggests that change could be on the horizon. As always, we stay optimistic and prefer to zoom out for the bigger picture.

總體而言，這又是溫和的一周，與過去三個月一致。例外的是我們在 9 月看到的短暫緩解，當時大多數定向基金都錄得 10% 至 15% 的漲幅。這是一個積極的信號，特別是考慮到定向基金在 2024 年全年面臨的挑戰。一如既往，我們保持樂觀，更願意放眼全局。

Back in 2017, Preqin identified just 55 crypto funds, but by 2024 that number has surged to nearly 1,200—an impressive 21x increase. These are funds focused purely on digital assets, out of almost 30,000 funds in Preqin’s database. Additionally, 400 traditional or non-crypto funds now have exposure to digital assets.

早在 2017 年，Preqin 就發現了 55 只加密貨幣基金，但到 2024 年，這一數字已飆升至近 1,200 只，增長了 21 倍，令人印象深刻。 Preqin 資料庫中有近 30,000 個基金，這些基金是純粹專注於數位資產的基金。此外，400 檔傳統或非加密基金現在也涉足數位資產。

As October kicked off, most managers positioned themselves with strong long positions in line with the usual "Uptober" trend. However, with many already fully allocated, the question remains—who will step in with the additional capital needed to push markets higher by month-end? The answer remains unclear for now.

十月伊始，大多數基金經理人都根據通常的「Uptober」趨勢建立了強勁的多頭部位。然而，由於許多資金已經完全分配，問題仍然存在——誰將提供所需的額外資金，在月底之前推動市場走高？答案目前尚不清楚。

According to Crypto Insights Group's monthly report, which surveys dozens of liquid crypto funds, we’re seeing some of the highest conviction levels of the year across different time horizons, reflecting the sentiment of fund managers and allocators alike.

Crypto Insights Group 的月度報告對數十隻流動性加密貨幣基金進行了調查，結果顯示，我們在不同時間範圍內看到了今年最高的信念水平，反映了基金經理和配置者的情緒。

Let’s dive into some market talk! This morning brought a surprise with the release of nonfarm payroll results, which sent Bitcoin higher. According to Josh Lim, Co-Founder of Arbelos, “the strong NFP report has shifted traders’ conviction to a 95% probability of a 25bp rate cut in November.”

讓我們深入探討一些市場主題！今天早上公佈的非農就業數據令人意外，導致比特幣走高。 Arbelos 聯合創始人 Josh Lim 表示，“強勁的 NFP 報告已經讓交易者相信 11 月降息 25 個基點的可能性為 95%。”

Looking ahead to the weekend, volatility might be in store. As Josh points out, “1-day options on Deribit are signaling some fear of a potential retaliatory move by Israel, with Saturday’s options reflecting a 44 implied vol, compared to 37 for Sunday and Monday.”

展望週末，可能會出現波動。正如 Josh 指出的那樣，“Deribit 的一日期權表明人們擔心以色列可能採取報復行動，週六的期權反映了 44 的隱含波動率，而周日和周一的隱含波動率為 37.”

For those new to options, implied volatility is a measure of expected price swings—higher volatility suggests bigger price movements ahead.

對於那些剛接觸選擇權的人來說，隱含波動率是預期價格波動的衡量標準——較高的波動率表示未來價格波動較大。

In addition to crypto-specific concerns, traders are also keeping an eye on broader macroeconomic indicators.

除了特定於加密貨幣的擔憂之外，交易者還關注更廣泛的宏觀經濟指標。

“The VIX front-month futures have stayed above 20 vol all week, especially with Chinese equity markets closed for Golden Week,” Josh notes. For reference, VIX futures tend to average around 20, so when they rise above that level, it’s a signal for increased market caution.

Josh 指出：“VIX 近月期貨整週都保持在 20 波動率以上，特別是在中國股市黃金周休市的情況下。”作為參考，VIX 期貨的平均水平往往在 20 左右，因此當其升至該水平之上時，這是市場更加謹慎的信號。

The combination of these factors suggests we might be in for a weekend of heightened market activity.

這些因素綜合起來表明，週末市場活動可能會更加活躍。

The Block's Frank Chaparro serves up the latest headlines, charts, trends, and views on crypto and DeFi from around The Block, Twitter, and The Scoop pod. Subscribe to The Scoop newsletter, which hits inboxes on Tuesday and Friday mornings.

The Block 的 Frank Chaparro 提供來自 The Block、Twitter 和 The Scoop pod 的最新頭條新聞、圖表、趨勢以及有關加密貨幣和 DeFi 的觀點。訂閱 The Scoop 時事通訊，該通訊會在周二和周五早上發送到收件匣。