Uptober 来了，但谁会介入推动市场走高？

本周的时事通讯由 The Block 特别项目总监 Frank Chaparro 和 MNNC Group 的 Laura Vidiella 共同撰写。

This column was co-written by Frank Chaparro, director of special projects at The Block, and Laura Vidiella of MNNC Group. The views expressed in this column are their own and do not reflect the opinions of their employers.

本专栏由 The Block 特别项目总监 Frank Chaparro 和 MNNC Group 的 Laura Vidiella 共同撰写。本专栏中表达的观点仅代表他们自己的观点，并不反映其雇主的意见。

After Tuesday's Uptober newsletter, the market saw a downturn, despite only a 1% dip in BTC price—funny how quickly things can shift.

在周二的 Uptober 新闻简讯发布后，尽管 BTC 价格仅下跌了 1%，但市场却出现了低迷——有趣的是事情变化得如此之快。

Overall, it’s been another mild week, consistent with the past three months. The exception was the brief relief we saw in September when most directional funds recorded gains of 10% to 15%. This was a positive sign, especially given the challenges directional funds have faced throughout 2024. However, sentiment from fund managers and subscribers suggests that change could be on the horizon. As always, we stay optimistic and prefer to zoom out for the bigger picture.

总体而言，这又是温和的一周，与过去三个月一致。例外的是我们在 9 月份看到的短暂缓解，当时大多数定向基金都录得 10% 至 15% 的涨幅。这是一个积极的信号，特别是考虑到定向基金在 2024 年全年面临的挑战。然而，基金经理和认购者的情绪表明，变化可能即将到来。一如既往，我们保持乐观，更愿意放眼全局。

Back in 2017, Preqin identified just 55 crypto funds, but by 2024 that number has surged to nearly 1,200—an impressive 21x increase. These are funds focused purely on digital assets, out of almost 30,000 funds in Preqin’s database. Additionally, 400 traditional or non-crypto funds now have exposure to digital assets.

早在 2017 年，Preqin 就发现了 55 只加密货币基金，但到 2024 年，这一数字已飙升至近 1,200 只，增长了 21 倍，令人印象深刻。 Preqin 数据库中有近 30,000 个基金，这些基金是纯粹专注于数字资产的基金。此外，400 只传统或非加密基金现在也涉足数字资产。

As October kicked off, most managers positioned themselves with strong long positions in line with the usual "Uptober" trend. However, with many already fully allocated, the question remains—who will step in with the additional capital needed to push markets higher by month-end? The answer remains unclear for now.

十月伊始，大多数基金经理都根据通常的“Uptober”趋势建立了强劲的多头头寸。然而，由于许多资金已经完全分配，问题仍然存在——谁将提供所需的额外资金来在月底之前推高市场？答案目前还不清楚。

According to Crypto Insights Group's monthly report, which surveys dozens of liquid crypto funds, we’re seeing some of the highest conviction levels of the year across different time horizons, reflecting the sentiment of fund managers and allocators alike.

Crypto Insights Group 的月度报告对数十只流动性加密货币基金进行了调查，结果显示，我们在不同时间范围内看到了今年最高的信念水平，反映了基金经理和配置者的情绪。

Let’s dive into some market talk! This morning brought a surprise with the release of nonfarm payroll results, which sent Bitcoin higher. According to Josh Lim, Co-Founder of Arbelos, “the strong NFP report has shifted traders’ conviction to a 95% probability of a 25bp rate cut in November.”

让我们深入探讨一些市场话题！今天早上公布的非农就业数据令人意外，导致比特币走高。 Arbelos 联合创始人 Josh Lim 表示，“强劲的 NFP 报告已经让交易者相信 11 月份降息 25 个基点的可能性为 95%。”

Looking ahead to the weekend, volatility might be in store. As Josh points out, “1-day options on Deribit are signaling some fear of a potential retaliatory move by Israel, with Saturday’s options reflecting a 44 implied vol, compared to 37 for Sunday and Monday.”

展望周末，可能会出现波动。正如 Josh 指出的那样，“Deribit 的一日期权表明人们担心以色列可能采取报复行动，周六的期权反映了 44 的隐含波动率，而周日和周一的隐含波动率为 37。”

For those new to options, implied volatility is a measure of expected price swings—higher volatility suggests bigger price movements ahead.

对于那些刚接触期权的人来说，隐含波动率是预期价格波动的衡量标准——较高的波动率表明未来价格波动较大。

In addition to crypto-specific concerns, traders are also keeping an eye on broader macroeconomic indicators.

除了特定于加密货币的担忧之外，交易者还关注更广泛的宏观经济指标。

“The VIX front-month futures have stayed above 20 vol all week, especially with Chinese equity markets closed for Golden Week,” Josh notes. For reference, VIX futures tend to average around 20, so when they rise above that level, it’s a signal for increased market caution.

Josh 指出：“VIX 近月期货整周都保持在 20 波动率以上，特别是在中国股市黄金周休市的情况下。”作为参考，VIX 期货的平均水平往往在 20 左右，因此当其升至该水平之上时，这是市场更加谨慎的信号。

The combination of these factors suggests we might be in for a weekend of heightened market activity.

这些因素综合起来表明，周末市场活动可能会更加活跃。

The Block's Frank Chaparro serves up the latest headlines, charts, trends, and views on crypto and DeFi from around The Block, Twitter, and The Scoop pod. Subscribe to The Scoop newsletter, which hits inboxes on Tuesday and Friday mornings.

The Block 的 Frank Chaparro 提供来自 The Block、Twitter 和 The Scoop pod 的最新头条新闻、图表、趋势以及有关加密货币和 DeFi 的观点。订阅 The Scoop 时事通讯，该通讯会在周二和周五早上发送到收件箱。