Uptober Is Here, but Who Will Step in to Push the Market Higher?

This week's newsletter was co-written by Frank Chaparro, director of special projects at The Block, and Laura Vidiella of MNNC Group.

This column was co-written by Frank Chaparro, director of special projects at The Block, and Laura Vidiella of MNNC Group. The views expressed in this column are their own and do not reflect the opinions of their employers.

After Tuesday's Uptober newsletter, the market saw a downturn, despite only a 1% dip in BTC price—funny how quickly things can shift.

Overall, it’s been another mild week, consistent with the past three months. The exception was the brief relief we saw in September when most directional funds recorded gains of 10% to 15%. This was a positive sign, especially given the challenges directional funds have faced throughout 2024. However, sentiment from fund managers and subscribers suggests that change could be on the horizon. As always, we stay optimistic and prefer to zoom out for the bigger picture.

Back in 2017, Preqin identified just 55 crypto funds, but by 2024 that number has surged to nearly 1,200—an impressive 21x increase. These are funds focused purely on digital assets, out of almost 30,000 funds in Preqin’s database. Additionally, 400 traditional or non-crypto funds now have exposure to digital assets.

As October kicked off, most managers positioned themselves with strong long positions in line with the usual "Uptober" trend. However, with many already fully allocated, the question remains—who will step in with the additional capital needed to push markets higher by month-end? The answer remains unclear for now.

According to Crypto Insights Group's monthly report, which surveys dozens of liquid crypto funds, we’re seeing some of the highest conviction levels of the year across different time horizons, reflecting the sentiment of fund managers and allocators alike.

Let’s dive into some market talk! This morning brought a surprise with the release of nonfarm payroll results, which sent Bitcoin higher. According to Josh Lim, Co-Founder of Arbelos, “the strong NFP report has shifted traders’ conviction to a 95% probability of a 25bp rate cut in November.”

Looking ahead to the weekend, volatility might be in store. As Josh points out, “1-day options on Deribit are signaling some fear of a potential retaliatory move by Israel, with Saturday’s options reflecting a 44 implied vol, compared to 37 for Sunday and Monday.”

For those new to options, implied volatility is a measure of expected price swings—higher volatility suggests bigger price movements ahead.

In addition to crypto-specific concerns, traders are also keeping an eye on broader macroeconomic indicators.

“The VIX front-month futures have stayed above 20 vol all week, especially with Chinese equity markets closed for Golden Week,” Josh notes. For reference, VIX futures tend to average around 20, so when they rise above that level, it’s a signal for increased market caution.

The combination of these factors suggests we might be in for a weekend of heightened market activity.

The Block's Frank Chaparro serves up the latest headlines, charts, trends, and views on crypto and DeFi from around The Block, Twitter, and The Scoop pod. Subscribe to The Scoop newsletter, which hits inboxes on Tuesday and Friday mornings.