關稅衝擊如何重塑市場

要說，特朗普政府宣布大量關稅的幾周是多重的，並沒有真正公正。

The past few weeks have seen a frantic market reaction to the Trump administration’s announcement of massive tariffs, which are set to drastically reshape financial markets and the global economy.

在過去的幾周中，特朗普政府宣布大規模關稅的情況發生了瘋狂的市場反應，這些關稅將大幅度重塑金融市場和全球經濟。

With a brutally crashing and sometimes rebounding market, collapsing trade with China, nearly total confusion over future tariffs, and supply chain disruptions, the financial markets and the economy as a whole are still scrambling to figure out how it will play out.

隨著殘酷崩潰的市場崩潰，有時反彈的市場，與中國的貿易崩潰，對未來關稅的幾乎完全混亂以及供應鏈中斷，金融市場和整個經濟仍在爭先恐後，以弄清楚它將如何發揮作用。

“The CEOs of Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Home Depot (HD), all of whom delivered a blunt message about interruptions in the supply chain and its effects on consumers.

“沃爾瑪（WMT），Target（TGT）和Home Depot（HD）的首席執行官，所有這些人都向供應鏈中斷及其對消費者的影響傳達了一個直率的信息。

Trump’s tariffs have placed significant pressure on the retail sector. The business leaders warned that store shelves across America could soon be empty.”

特朗普的關稅給零售業帶來了巨大壓力。企業領袖警告說，整個美國的商店貨架很快可能是空的。 ”

Source: CNN

資料來源：CNN

In such periods, it is usually “safe assets” that benefit the most, as capital flees to safety until the storm clears. However, what constitutes a safe asset in the modern era has been an open question in recent years.

在此期間，通常是“安全資產”受益最大的，因為資本逃到安全狀態，直到風暴消失為止。但是，近年來，構成現代的安全資產一直是一個懸而未決的問題。

Historically, and to this day, this would have meant gold, as the only currency independent of any government. More recently, US government bonds have been considered by economists as the “risk-free” benchmark on which the entire global economic system is anchored.

從歷史上看，直到今天，這意味著黃金，是唯一獨立於任何政府的貨幣。最近，經濟學家認為美國政府債券是整個全球經濟體系的“無風險”基準。

Another strong contender today is Bitcoin (BTC). This is because Bitcoin replicates many of the features that historically made gold a safe haven in a digital form.

如今，另一個強大的競爭者是比特幣（BTC）。這是因為比特幣複製了許多使黃金成為數字形式的避風港的功能。

Bitcoin USD (BTC)

比特幣USD（BTC）

In this recent turmoil, it seems that Bitcoin performed this role well. But does that mean that investors should expect, from now on, for Bitcoin to be de-correlated from broader markets?

在最近的動盪中，比特幣似乎很好地扮演了這一角色。但這是否意味著投資者應該期望比特幣與更廣闊的市場相關？

Post-Tariff Fallout: What Happened and What’s Next

宣布後的輻射：發生了什麼事和下一步

On April 2nd, dubbed “Liberation Day” by President Trump, a massive wave of tariffs was announced and followed by more tariffs in the following days.

4月2日，特朗普總統被稱為“解放日”，宣布了一系列關稅，隨後在接下來的幾天中提出了更多關稅。

Overall, the tariffs were:

總體而言，關稅是：

Source: USA Today

資料來源：今日美國

While likely far from over due to the broader and intensifying competition between the US and China, it seems the first round of tariff shock has now somewhat passed.

雖然由於美國和中國之間的較廣泛，更加激烈的競爭，但似乎第一輪關稅衝擊已經過去了，但現在已經過去了。

Investor Panic and Market Moves Explained

投資者的恐慌和市場舉動解釋了

The intensity and rapid escalation in tariffs shocked market participants and triggered an immediate sell-off. It was followed by intense days as the main indexes sawed up and down, depending on whether it looked like a tariff deal with some of the US’s main trade partners was likely or not.

關稅的強度和快速升級震驚了市場參與者，並引發了立即拋售。緊隨其後的是，由於主要索引上下鋸切，這取決於與美國某些主要貿易夥伴的關稅交易，這可能是可能的。

Many large investors were also considering derisking and reducing exposure during the turmoil.

許多大型投資者還在考慮在動盪期間貶低和減少暴露。

“What you're looking at, broadly speaking, is a market that is frustrated, uncertain and confused about where we're going to be one day to the next. In that environment you have a tendency to see some investors choosing the safety of cash.”

“從廣義上講，您正在尋找的是一個市場，對我們將要在下一天的何處感到沮喪，不確定和困惑。在這種環境中，您傾向於看到一些投資者選擇現金的安全。”

John Canavan – Lead analyst at Oxford Economics

約翰·卡納萬（John Canavan） - 牛津經濟學的首席分析師

Bitcoin's Decoupling: Signal or Blip?

比特幣的脫鉤：信號還是blip？

Initially, it appeared that Bitcoin would crash alongside other financial assets. But this trend did not last, and even quickly reversed. While Bitcoin is still not yet back to its all-time highs well above the symbolic $100,000 mark, it stands at $95,500 at the time of writing this article.

最初，看來比特幣將與其他金融資產一起崩潰。但是這種趨勢並沒有持續，甚至很快就倒轉了。雖然比特幣仍未回到其歷史最高點，遠高於象徵性的100,000美元，但在撰寫本文時，比特幣的價格仍為95,500美元。

However, thanks to the broader market decline of the last weeks, Bitcoin is soon breaking through its highest point ever when compared to the S&P500, which is likely a more relevant comparison point for most investors.

但是，由於過去幾週的市場下降，比特幣很快就會突破有史以來的最高點，而這對大多數投資者來說可能是一個更相關的比較點。

Source: Daily HODL

資料來源：每日願望

How Gold, USD, and Bonds Reacted

黃金，美元和債券如何反應

Another major, and surprising, winner of the tariffs has been gold. Gold had previously been only slowly rising in price since its low point in 2016, with years-long periods of no growth. However, it is up 25% year-to-date, with unprecedented moves of more than $100/ounce in one day at times.

關稅的另一個少校且令人驚訝的贏家是黃金。自2016年低點以來，黃金以前一直在慢慢上漲，長達數年的沒有增長的時期。但是，它年僅上漲了25％，有時有時，前所未有的動作超過$ 100/盎司。

Source: Trading Economics

資料來源：交易經濟學

Meanwhile, the US dollar itself has been decreasing in value quickly against major currencies like the Euro.

同時，美元本身對歐元等主要貨幣的價值迅速下降。

Source: Google Finance

資料來源：Google Finance

But maybe the most surprising result, one that was likely unexpected even at the White House, was a pronounced weakness in US bonds. For example, the 10-year US bonds saw their yields increase, in total contradiction to expectations, as declining stock prices are usually correlated to rising bond value (and decreasing bond yields).

但是，也許最令人驚訝的結果，即使在白宮也可能出乎意料的結果，這是美國債券的明顯弱點。例如，美國為期10年的債券的收益率上升，與期望的總矛盾，因為股票價格下降通常與債券價值上升（以及債券收益率下降）相關。

Source: CNBC

資料來源：CNBC

Altogether, the market’s and other assets’ reactions are painting a pretty grim picture. The tariffs are perceived as very disruptive, but more importantly, the USA itself is not seen as a safe place to park money during a market crash or a potential recession.

總體而言，市場和其他資產的反應正在畫一幅非常嚴峻的圖片。關稅被認為是非常破壞性的，但更重要的是，在市場崩潰或潛在的衰退期間，美國本身並不是安全停放錢的安全場所。

Instead, a flight to safety is occurring, with traditional gold and digital gold (Bitcoin) gaining value, while the US dollar’s value declines. If these moves in the bond market persist, this could increase the cost of the US debt, putting a strain on the country’s finances.

取而代之的是，傳統的黃金和數字黃金（比特幣）獲得了航班，而美元的價值下降。如果這些在債券市場中持續存在，這可能會增加美國債務的成本，從而對該國的財務造成壓力。

Is Bitcoin Now A Risk Asset Or Safe Haven?

比特幣現在是風險資產還是避風港？

For a long time, a

很長一段時間以來