关税冲击如何重塑市场

要说，特朗普政府宣布大量关税的几周是多重的，并没有真正公正。

The past few weeks have seen a frantic market reaction to the Trump administration’s announcement of massive tariffs, which are set to drastically reshape financial markets and the global economy.

在过去的几周中，特朗普政府宣布大规模关税的情况发生了疯狂的市场反应，这些关税将大幅度重塑金融市场和全球经济。

With a brutally crashing and sometimes rebounding market, collapsing trade with China, nearly total confusion over future tariffs, and supply chain disruptions, the financial markets and the economy as a whole are still scrambling to figure out how it will play out.

随着残酷崩溃的市场崩溃，有时反弹的市场，与中国的贸易崩溃，对未来关税的几乎完全混乱以及供应链中断，金融市场和整个经济仍在争先恐后，以弄清楚它将如何发挥作用。

“The CEOs of Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Home Depot (HD), all of whom delivered a blunt message about interruptions in the supply chain and its effects on consumers.

“沃尔玛（WMT），Target（TGT）和Home Depot（HD）的首席执行官，所有这些人都向供应链中断及其对消费者的影响传达了一个直率的信息。

Trump’s tariffs have placed significant pressure on the retail sector. The business leaders warned that store shelves across America could soon be empty.”

特朗普的关税给零售业带来了巨大压力。企业领袖警告说，整个美国的商店货架很快可能是空的。”

Source: CNN

资料来源：CNN

In such periods, it is usually “safe assets” that benefit the most, as capital flees to safety until the storm clears. However, what constitutes a safe asset in the modern era has been an open question in recent years.

在此期间，通常是“安全资产”受益最大的，因为资本逃到安全状态，直到风暴消失为止。但是，近年来，构成现代的安全资产一直是一个悬而未决的问题。

Historically, and to this day, this would have meant gold, as the only currency independent of any government. More recently, US government bonds have been considered by economists as the “risk-free” benchmark on which the entire global economic system is anchored.

从历史上看，直到今天，这意味着黄金，是唯一独立于任何政府的货币。最近，经济学家认为美国政府债券是整个全球经济体系的“无风险”基准。

Another strong contender today is Bitcoin (BTC). This is because Bitcoin replicates many of the features that historically made gold a safe haven in a digital form.

如今，另一个强大的竞争者是比特币（BTC）。这是因为比特币复制了许多使黄金成为数字形式的避风港的功能。

Bitcoin USD (BTC)

比特币USD（BTC）

In this recent turmoil, it seems that Bitcoin performed this role well. But does that mean that investors should expect, from now on, for Bitcoin to be de-correlated from broader markets?

在最近的动荡中，比特币似乎很好地扮演了这一角色。但这是否意味着投资者应该期望比特币与更广阔的市场相关？

Post-Tariff Fallout: What Happened and What’s Next

宣布后的辐射：发生了什么事和下一步

On April 2nd, dubbed “Liberation Day” by President Trump, a massive wave of tariffs was announced and followed by more tariffs in the following days.

4月2日，特朗普总统被称为“解放日”，宣布了一系列关税，随后在接下来的几天中提出了更多关税。

Overall, the tariffs were:

总体而言，关税是：

Source: USA Today

资料来源：今日美国

While likely far from over due to the broader and intensifying competition between the US and China, it seems the first round of tariff shock has now somewhat passed.

虽然由于美国和中国之间的较广泛，更加激烈的竞争，但似乎第一轮关税冲击已经过去了，但现在已经过去了。

Investor Panic and Market Moves Explained

投资者的恐慌和市场举动解释了

The intensity and rapid escalation in tariffs shocked market participants and triggered an immediate sell-off. It was followed by intense days as the main indexes sawed up and down, depending on whether it looked like a tariff deal with some of the US’s main trade partners was likely or not.

关税的强度和快速升级震惊了市场参与者，并引发了立即抛售。紧随其后的是，由于主要索引上下锯切，这取决于与美国某些主要贸易伙伴的关税交易，这可能是可能的。

Many large investors were also considering derisking and reducing exposure during the turmoil.

许多大型投资者还在考虑在动荡期间贬低和减少暴露。

“What you're looking at, broadly speaking, is a market that is frustrated, uncertain and confused about where we're going to be one day to the next. In that environment you have a tendency to see some investors choosing the safety of cash.”

“从广义上讲，您正在寻找的是一个市场，对我们将要在下一天的何处感到沮丧，不确定和困惑。在这种环境中，您倾向于看到一些投资者选择现金的安全。”

John Canavan – Lead analyst at Oxford Economics

约翰·卡纳万（John Canavan） - 牛津经济学的首席分析师

Bitcoin's Decoupling: Signal or Blip?

比特币的脱钩：信号还是blip？

Initially, it appeared that Bitcoin would crash alongside other financial assets. But this trend did not last, and even quickly reversed. While Bitcoin is still not yet back to its all-time highs well above the symbolic $100,000 mark, it stands at $95,500 at the time of writing this article.

最初，看来比特币将与其他金融资产一起崩溃。但是这种趋势并没有持续，甚至很快就倒转了。虽然比特币仍未回到其历史最高点，远高于象征性的100,000美元，但在撰写本文时，比特币的价格仍为95,500美元。

However, thanks to the broader market decline of the last weeks, Bitcoin is soon breaking through its highest point ever when compared to the S&P500, which is likely a more relevant comparison point for most investors.

但是，由于过去几周的市场下降，比特币很快就会突破有史以来的最高点，而这对大多数投资者来说可能是一个更相关的比较点。

Source: Daily HODL

资料来源：每日愿望

How Gold, USD, and Bonds Reacted

黄金，美元和债券如何反应

Another major, and surprising, winner of the tariffs has been gold. Gold had previously been only slowly rising in price since its low point in 2016, with years-long periods of no growth. However, it is up 25% year-to-date, with unprecedented moves of more than $100/ounce in one day at times.

关税的另一个少校且令人惊讶的赢家是黄金。自2016年低点以来，黄金以前一直在慢慢上涨，长达数年的没有增长的时期。但是，它年仅上涨了25％，有时有时，前所未有的动作超过$ 100/盎司。

Source: Trading Economics

资料来源：交易经济学

Meanwhile, the US dollar itself has been decreasing in value quickly against major currencies like the Euro.

同时，美元本身对欧元等主要货币的价值迅速下降。

Source: Google Finance

资料来源：Google Finance

But maybe the most surprising result, one that was likely unexpected even at the White House, was a pronounced weakness in US bonds. For example, the 10-year US bonds saw their yields increase, in total contradiction to expectations, as declining stock prices are usually correlated to rising bond value (and decreasing bond yields).

但是，也许最令人惊讶的结果，即使在白宫也可能出乎意料的结果，这是美国债券的明显弱点。例如，美国为期10年的债券的收益率上升，与期望的总矛盾，因为股票价格下降通常与债券价值上升（以及债券收益率下降）相关。

Source: CNBC

资料来源：CNBC

Altogether, the market’s and other assets’ reactions are painting a pretty grim picture. The tariffs are perceived as very disruptive, but more importantly, the USA itself is not seen as a safe place to park money during a market crash or a potential recession.

总体而言，市场和其他资产的反应正在画一幅非常严峻的图片。关税被认为是非常破坏性的，但更重要的是，在市场崩溃或潜在的衰退期间，美国本身并不是安全停放钱的安全场所。

Instead, a flight to safety is occurring, with traditional gold and digital gold (Bitcoin) gaining value, while the US dollar’s value declines. If these moves in the bond market persist, this could increase the cost of the US debt, putting a strain on the country’s finances.

取而代之的是，传统的黄金和数字黄金（比特币）获得了航班，而美元的价值下降。如果这些在债券市场中持续存在，这可能会增加美国债务的成本，从而对该国的财务造成压力。

Is Bitcoin Now A Risk Asset Or Safe Haven?

比特币现在是风险资产还是避风港？

For a long time, a

很长一段时间以来