美元減弱，歐元增強

歐洲已經看到風暴，危機，懷疑來來去去。但是很少打開機會窗口。

In a surprising turn of events, the US dollar could be paving the way for the euro to become a major global currency, according to a recent analysis by Point de Situation.

根據Point de Conecon的最新分析，這筆事件令人驚訝的是，美元可能正在為歐元成為全球主要貨幣鋪平道路。

The article highlights how Donald Trump’s administration has seen tariffs and economic provocations from the United States come and go, but rarely has such a large window of opportunity opened for Europe.

這篇文章強調了唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的政府如何看到美國的關稅和經濟挑釁來來去去，但很少為歐洲開放的機會窗口很大。

Since Donald Trump’s United States has been playing geopolitical roulette with tariffs and chaining economic provocations, a crack is forming in the armor of the king dollar. And in this breach, the euro, often mocked for its hesitations, could well invite itself to the table of the major global currencies. Even better, it could soon impose itself there.

自從唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的美國一直在與關稅和鏈接經濟挑釁一起演奏地緣政治輪盤賭以來，國王的裝甲正在形成裂縫。在這種違規情況下，歐元經常因其猶豫而嘲笑，很可能會邀請自己進入主要的全球貨幣桌子。更好的是，它很快就會在那裡強加自己。

The Dollar Weakens, the Euro Strengthens

美元減弱，歐元增強

Since Donald Trump’s inauguration, the dollar no longer shines as much. In April, the DXY index – which measures the strength of the greenback against major currencies – fell by 10%. A real slide fueled by the political whims of the White House and public criticisms against the Federal Reserve.

自唐納德·特朗普的就職典禮以來，美元不再發光。 4月，DXY指數（衡量了針對主要貨幣的綠色野蠻人的強度）下降了10％。白宮的政治異想天開以及對美聯儲的公眾批評的真正滑動。

Europe, thanks to its stability and investments, will benefit from the fall of the dollar.

由於其穩定和投資，歐洲將從美元衰落中受益。

This falling out with the dollar is pushing investors to rethink their cards. And guess who is about to play their ace? The euro. The single currency has never really been able to take advantage of its massive economic potential. But today, the cards are being reshuffled. If Europe seizes the moment, it can impose its currency as a global monetary pillar.

這筆錢跌倒了，促使投資者重新考慮他們的卡片。猜猜誰將扮演他們的王牌？歐元。單一貨幣從未真正能夠利用其巨大的經濟潛力。但是今天，卡片正在改組。如果歐洲抓住了這一時刻，它可以將其貨幣作為全球貨幣支柱。

Certainly, nothing is decided yet. The euro still lacks a “safe asset“, a safe haven equivalent to US Treasury bonds. This monetary grail, used as universal collateral, is sorely missing in the Old Continent. Yet the foundations are there: a strong European Central Bank, a banking sector of $34 trillion, 40% larger than that of the United States. That is no small matter.

當然，什麼都沒有決定。歐元仍然缺乏“安全資產”，這與美國財政部債券相當。這款貨幣聖杯被用作通用抵押品，在舊大陸上非常缺少。然而，基金會仍然存在：一個強大的歐洲央行，一個銀行業，34萬億美元，比美國大40％。那不是小問題。

The Dream of a European Safe Asset: Mirage or Turning Point?

歐洲安全資產的夢想：海市rage樓還是轉折點？

The big question is this: can the euro become a reserve currency without a worthy safe asset? So far, attempts have failed: the “stability bonds” of 2011, the “ESBies” of 2018, or even the post-Covid NextGenerationEU program – all suffered from a lack of political consensus. The idea of mutualized debt in the eurozone remains taboo for several capitals.

最大的問題是：歐元可以成為沒有值得安全資產的儲備貨幣嗎？到目前為止，嘗試失敗了：2011年的“穩定債券”，2018年的“ Esbies”，甚至是後Covid Nextgenerateu計劃 - 都遭受了缺乏政治共識的困擾。歐元區中互相債務的想法仍然是多個首都的禁忌。

But times are changing. Under the pressure of an unpredictable America, some dogmas are wavering. Germany itself, long champion of budgetary orthodoxy, has crossed a Rubicon by launching a massive defense and infrastructure plan funded by debt. And if this were only the beginning?

但是時代正在改變。在不可預測的美國的壓力下，一些教條正在動搖。德國本身是預算正統的長期擁護者，他通過啟動由債務資助的大規模國防和基礎設施計劃跨越了rubicon。如果這只是開始？

As the Institute of Liberties reminded us:

正如自由研究所提醒我們的那樣：

There have been far more dollars for sale than euros to buy. […] And that’s why your daughter is mute, Molière would have said.

出售的錢比歐元要多得多。 […]這就是為什麼您的女兒沉默寡言的原因，莫里埃（Molière）會說。

Simply put, flows are reversing. The euro is rising, the dollar is wavering, bitcoin persists, and the public, once skeptical, is beginning to believe in the potential of a strong European currency backed by a more integrated economic policy.

簡而言之，流正在逆轉。歐元正在上升，美元搖擺不定，比特幣持續存在，公眾曾經懷疑，開始相信以更綜合的經濟政策支持的強大歐洲貨幣的潛力。

Speculation is rampant. For the euro to impose itself, there will need to be a shock. What if this shock came not from finance, but from politics? As in 2020 with Covid, a crisis can sometimes accelerate changes more than a European summit. Perhaps Trump, in weakening the dollar, will inadvertently do a proud service to the currency he loves to hate.

猜測猖ramp。要使歐元強加自己，需要震驚。如果這種衝擊不是來自財務，而是來自政治怎麼辦？與2020年的庫維德一樣，危機有時會加速變化，而不是歐洲峰會。也許特朗普（Trump）在削弱美元時，會無意中為他喜歡的仇恨貨幣做出驕傲的服務。

Capital, Confidence, and Competitiveness: Signals Turn Green

資本，信心和競爭力：信號變成綠色

Confidence is contagious, especially when it affects wallets. While Wall Street logs its worst sessions in two years, the euro benefits. Not only is the currency climbing, but capital follows. Large funds are repatriating their assets from America to reinvest them on European soil.

信心具有傳染性，尤其是在影響錢包時。華爾街在兩年內記錄了最糟糕的會議，但歐元的利益。不僅攀岩貨幣，而且資本隨之而來。大量資金正在將其從美國的資產遣返，以將其重新投資於歐洲土壤。

It’s a reversed domino effect: the imbalance on one side breathes life into the other.

這是一種反向的多米諾骨牌效應：一側的失衡使生命呼吸到另一種。

The consequence? A euro flirting with peaks, gold shining like never before, and oil climbing, fueled by hopes (illusory?) of a Sino-American trade truce. Even European bonds are regaining color. The yield on German Bunds is slowly rising, evidence of renewed interest in the bloc’s sovereign debts.

結果？歐元的調情，山峰調情，黃金從未像以前一樣閃閃發光，以及攀岩，攀岩是由中美洲貿易休戰中的希望（虛幻？）推動的。甚至歐洲債券也正在恢復顏色。德國館的收益越來越逐漸上升，這表明該集團的主權債務增加了興趣。

And in all this upheaval, one question keeps coming up: can the euro take over from the dollar? For DerivativesProFR, the time may have come:

在所有這些動盪中，一個問題不斷出現：歐元可以從美元中接管嗎？對於衍生產品，時間可能到了：

The global markets […] seem to have found a new balance.

全球市場[…]似乎已經找到了新的平衡。

An equation that pleases investors seeking stability. And when the word “stability” rhymes with “Europe”, it means something has changed.

一個方程式使尋求穩定的投資者取悅投資者。當用“歐洲”押韻“穩定”一詞時，這意味著發生了變化。

On the stock market too, the signs don’t lie. At every Wall Street crisis, Europe has sometimes managed to come out ahead. This was the case in 2001, in 2008 to a lesser extent, and today history might repeat itself. The recent Nasdaq drop combined with the euro’s revaluation of over 11% against the dollar shows that financial tectonic plates are shifting. So

在股票市場上，這些跡像也不會撒謊。在每一次華爾街的危機中，歐洲有時都設法領先。在2001年，在2008年的情況下，歷史可能會重演。納斯達克股票最近的下降與歐元的重估相對於美元的重新估價超過11％，這表明金融構造板正在變化。所以