正如我們觀察陣亡將士紀念日🪖🌺🪖🌺時，今天這是一個短（免費）的帖子 - 但是黑豹隊正處於史丹利杯決賽的比賽中

正如我們觀察陣亡將士紀念日🪖🌺🪖🌺時，今天是一個短（和免費的）帖子 - 但是黑豹隊今晚再次在東部決賽中掃除颶風的邊緣

It’s a shorter (and free) post today, as we observe Memorial Day 🪖🌺 — but with the Panthers on the brink of sweeping the Hurricanes in the East final again tonight, plus the Oilers suddenly in control of the West, I had to write about the very real possibility of a Stanley Cup Final rematch in our near future.

當我們觀察陣亡將士紀念日🪖🌺時，今天這是一個短（和免費的）帖子，但是黑豹隊今晚再次席捲了東方決賽的颶風，加上油人，加油工人突然控制了西方，我不得不寫出非常真實的可能性。

Just a week ago, I noted how well-balanced the NHL’s Final Four was in terms of on-paper talent and betting odds. But that’s why they play the games… and it wouldn’t be playoff hockey without some kind of chaos changing what we thought we knew going into a series.

就在一周前，我注意到NHL的最後四分之一的平衡在紙上的人才和賭注上。但這就是為什麼他們玩遊戲的原因……如果沒有某種混亂，那將不是季后賽曲棍球。

The big shock to the system? Just how much Florida has outclassed Carolina so far, outscoring them by a margin of 16 goals to 4 while taking a commanding 3-0 lead in the conference final. While some stretches of the series have been competitive — much of the first two periods of Game 1 was spent within a goal, and Game 3 was tied headed into a third frame that saw Florida break things open with five unanswered goals — the Panthers have 55 percent of the shots and 59 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5. Moreover, they are scoring on 44 percent of their power play chances against a Canes D that had the league’s best penalty kill during the regular season.

系統的最大衝擊？到目前為止，佛羅里達州對卡羅來納州的分類超過了多少，在會議決賽中以3-0領先的領先優勢以3-0領先。儘管該系列賽的某些伸展運動具有競爭力 - 第一場比賽的前兩個階段中的大部分時間都在一個進球中，而第3場比賽被綁在第三幀中，佛羅里達州以五個未解決的進球打破了比賽，而黑豹隊的投籃命中率是55％，而預期的59％的預期進球為5對5。此外，他們在常規賽中獲得了聯盟最佳點球命中率的A Cunes D的44％的力量比賽機會。

If Florida breaks out the brooms tonight, it would be the second time in three years that they unexpectedly (and unceremoniously) swept Carolina in the conference final, joining their matchup from 2023 that saw the Panthers unseat the Hurricanes despite the latter posting 21 more points during the regular season. This time around, it was only a 1-point gap — hence the virtual coin-flip odds going into the series — but we would not expect that to lead to a sweep. Yet, once again, the Panthers are all about weird sweeps:

如果佛羅里達今晚爆發了掃帚，那將是三年來他們在會議決賽中意外（而且毫不客氣地）掃過卡羅來納州的第二次，加入了2023年的對決，儘管後者在常規賽中又有21分，但黑豹隊不為所動。這次，這只是一個1分的差距 - 因此，該系列的虛擬硬幣窗口賠率 - 但我們不希望這會導致掃蕩。然而，黑豹隊再次是關於奇怪的掃蕩：

The Florida Panthers Are All About The Weird Sweeps

佛羅里達黑豹隊都是關於奇怪的掃蕩

One thing you can say about the Florida Panthers as a franchise: They’re never predictable.

關於佛羅里達黑豹隊的特許經營，您可以說一件事：它們永遠無法預測。

On the other side, things haven’t been quite as lopsided, to be sure. But after Dallas erased an early 3-1 deficit with five third-period goals to win Game 1, they’ve been outscored 9-1 ever since — losing two straight to fall behind 2-1 in the battle for the West. Connor McDavid just had his first multi-goal game of the 2025 playoffs, snapping a stretch of zero goals in nine of his previous 10 games.

另一方面，可以肯定的是，事情並沒有那麼糟糕。但是，在達拉斯（Dallas）以五個第三節進球以贏得第1場比賽的五個前3-1赤字後，他們從那以後一直以9-1的比分擊敗 - 在為西方的戰鬥中輸掉了兩場比賽。康納·麥克戴維（Connor McDavid）剛剛在2025季后賽中獲得了他的第一場多進球比賽，在他前10場比賽中的9場中，他搶下了零進球。

(You, uh, think him getting rolling as a scorer might be a problem for Dallas?)

（您，嗯，認為他成為得分手可能是達拉斯的問題嗎？）

There are reasons to think the Stars can fight back, not least of which is the fact that they still had 58 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5 despite losing Games 2-3. Mikko Rantanen hasn’t scored yet — he has a pair of assists — and his production had been a key driver of Dallas’ ability to get this far in the playoffs. This one feels far less “over” than the series playing out over in the East.

有理由認為明星可以反擊，尤其是事實是，儘管以2-3輸掉了比賽，但他們仍然在5對5的預期進球中仍然擁有58％的預期進球。 Mikko Rantanen尚未得分 - 他有兩次助攻 - 他的製作是達拉斯在季后賽中獲得這一艱鉅能力的關鍵驅動力。這個感覺比東方演出的系列賽“結束”要少得多。

Still, my Elo forecast says there’s a 68 percent chance we get a rematch of last year’s Stanley Cup Final between the Panthers and the Oilers, heading into Monday’s Cats-Canes Game 4:There will be plenty of time to dissect the particulars of that matchup, and whether the Oilers could actually win it this time around, if and when it is actually solidified. But one thing to keep in mind is that repeat matchups for the Stanley Cup are surprisingly rare; only one — the Penguins and Red Wings in 2008 and 2009 — has happened in the past 41 (forty-one!) years, for instance.

儘管如此，我的ELO預測仍然說，我們有68％的機會在黑豹和油人之間進行了去年的斯坦利杯決賽的重賽，進入了周一的貓卡尼斯遊戲第4場比賽：有足夠的時間來剖析比賽的細節，以及油人是否可以真正贏得這次勝利，如果是何時固定的，這是真的贏得了比賽。但是要記住的一件事是，斯坦利杯的重複對決非常罕見。例如，在過去的41（41個！）年中，只有一個 - 2008年和2009年的企鵝和紅翅膀發生。

Here’s a list of all 12 of the championship rematches in NHL history:

這是NHL歷史上所有12個冠軍重賽的清單：

2008/09: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Detroit Red Wings

2008/09：匹茲堡企鵝與底特律紅翼

1983/84: Edmonton Oilers vs. New York Islanders

1983/84：埃德蒙頓油人與紐約島民

1977/78: Montreal Canadiens vs. Boston Bruins

1977/78：蒙特利爾加拿大人與波士頓棕熊

1968/69: Montreal Canadiens vs. St. Louis Blues

1968/69：蒙特利爾加拿大人與聖路易斯藍調

1963/64: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings

1963/64：多倫多楓葉與底特律紅翼

1959/60: Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

1959/60：蒙特利爾加拿大人與多倫多楓葉

1957/58: Montreal Canadiens vs. Boston Bruins

1957/58：蒙特利爾加拿大人與波士頓棕熊

1955/56: Montreal Canadiens vs. Detroit Red Wings

1955/56：蒙特利爾加拿大人與底特律紅翼

1954/55: Detroit Red Wings vs. Montreal Canadiens

1954/55：底特律紅翼與蒙特利爾加拿大人

1948/49: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings

1948/49：多倫多楓葉與底特律紅翼

1932/33: New York Rangers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

1932/33：紐約遊騎兵隊與多倫多楓葉

1923/24: Montreal Canadiens vs. Ottawa Senators

1923/24：蒙特利爾加拿大人與渥太華參議員

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