正如我们观察阵亡将士纪念日🪖🌺🪖🌺时，今天这是一个短（免费）的帖子 - 但是黑豹队正处于史丹利杯决赛的比赛中

正如我们观察阵亡将士纪念日🪖🌺🪖🌺时，今天是一个短（和免费的）帖子 - 但是黑豹队今晚再次在东部决赛中扫除飓风的边缘

It’s a shorter (and free) post today, as we observe Memorial Day 🪖🌺 — but with the Panthers on the brink of sweeping the Hurricanes in the East final again tonight, plus the Oilers suddenly in control of the West, I had to write about the very real possibility of a Stanley Cup Final rematch in our near future.

当我们观察阵亡将士纪念日🪖🌺时，今天这是一个短（和免费的）帖子，但是黑豹队今晚再次席卷了东方决赛的飓风，加上油人，加油工人突然控制了西方，我不得不写出非常真实的可能性。

Just a week ago, I noted how well-balanced the NHL’s Final Four was in terms of on-paper talent and betting odds. But that’s why they play the games… and it wouldn’t be playoff hockey without some kind of chaos changing what we thought we knew going into a series.

就在一周前，我注意到NHL的最后四分之一的平衡在纸上的人才和赌注上。但这就是为什么他们玩游戏的原因……如果没有某种混乱，那将不是季后赛曲棍球。

The big shock to the system? Just how much Florida has outclassed Carolina so far, outscoring them by a margin of 16 goals to 4 while taking a commanding 3-0 lead in the conference final. While some stretches of the series have been competitive — much of the first two periods of Game 1 was spent within a goal, and Game 3 was tied headed into a third frame that saw Florida break things open with five unanswered goals — the Panthers have 55 percent of the shots and 59 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5. Moreover, they are scoring on 44 percent of their power play chances against a Canes D that had the league’s best penalty kill during the regular season.

系统的最大冲击？到目前为止，佛罗里达州对卡罗来纳州的分类超过了多少，在会议决赛中以3-0领先的领先优势以3-0领先。尽管该系列赛的某些伸展运动具有竞争力 - 第一场比赛的前两个阶段中的大部分时间都在一个进球中，而第3场比赛被绑在第三帧中，佛罗里达州以五个未解决的进球打破了比赛，而黑豹队的投篮命中率是55％，而预期的59％的预期进球为5对5。此外，他们在常规赛中获得了联盟最佳点球命中率的A Cunes D的44％的力量比赛机会。

If Florida breaks out the brooms tonight, it would be the second time in three years that they unexpectedly (and unceremoniously) swept Carolina in the conference final, joining their matchup from 2023 that saw the Panthers unseat the Hurricanes despite the latter posting 21 more points during the regular season. This time around, it was only a 1-point gap — hence the virtual coin-flip odds going into the series — but we would not expect that to lead to a sweep. Yet, once again, the Panthers are all about weird sweeps:

如果佛罗里达今晚爆发了扫帚，那将是三年来他们在会议决赛中意外（而且毫不客气地）扫过卡罗来纳州的第二次，加入了2023年的对决，尽管后者在常规赛中又有21分，但黑豹队不为所动。这次，这只是一个1分的差距 - 因此，该系列的虚拟硬币窗口赔率 - 但我们不希望这会导致扫荡。然而，黑豹队再次是关于奇怪的扫荡：

The Florida Panthers Are All About The Weird Sweeps

佛罗里达黑豹队都是关于奇怪的扫荡

One thing you can say about the Florida Panthers as a franchise: They’re never predictable.

关于佛罗里达黑豹队的特许经营，您可以说一件事：它们永远无法预测。

On the other side, things haven’t been quite as lopsided, to be sure. But after Dallas erased an early 3-1 deficit with five third-period goals to win Game 1, they’ve been outscored 9-1 ever since — losing two straight to fall behind 2-1 in the battle for the West. Connor McDavid just had his first multi-goal game of the 2025 playoffs, snapping a stretch of zero goals in nine of his previous 10 games.

另一方面，可以肯定的是，事情并没有那么糟糕。但是，在达拉斯（Dallas）以五个第三节进球以赢得第1场比赛的五个前3-1赤字后，他们从那以后一直以9-1的比分击败 - 在为西方的战斗中输掉了两场比赛。康纳·麦克戴维（Connor McDavid）刚刚在2025季后赛中获得了他的第一场多进球比赛，在他前10场比赛中的9场中，他抢下了零进球。

(You, uh, think him getting rolling as a scorer might be a problem for Dallas?)

（您，嗯，认为他成为得分手可能是达拉斯的问题吗？）

There are reasons to think the Stars can fight back, not least of which is the fact that they still had 58 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5 despite losing Games 2-3. Mikko Rantanen hasn’t scored yet — he has a pair of assists — and his production had been a key driver of Dallas’ ability to get this far in the playoffs. This one feels far less “over” than the series playing out over in the East.

有理由认为明星可以反击，尤其是事实是，尽管以2-3输掉了比赛，但他们仍然在5对5的预期进球中仍然拥有58％的预期进球。 Mikko Rantanen尚未得分 - 他有两次助攻 - 他的制作是达拉斯在季后赛中获得这一艰巨能力的关键驱动力。这个感觉比东方演出的系列赛“结束”要少得多。

Still, my Elo forecast says there’s a 68 percent chance we get a rematch of last year’s Stanley Cup Final between the Panthers and the Oilers, heading into Monday’s Cats-Canes Game 4:There will be plenty of time to dissect the particulars of that matchup, and whether the Oilers could actually win it this time around, if and when it is actually solidified. But one thing to keep in mind is that repeat matchups for the Stanley Cup are surprisingly rare; only one — the Penguins and Red Wings in 2008 and 2009 — has happened in the past 41 (forty-one!) years, for instance.

尽管如此，我的ELO预测仍然说，我们有68％的机会在黑豹和油人之间进行了去年的斯坦利杯决赛的重赛，进入了周一的猫卡尼斯游戏第4场比赛：有足够的时间来剖析比赛的细节，以及油人是否可以真正赢得这次胜利，如果是何时固定的，这是真的赢得了比赛。但是要记住的一件事是，斯坦利杯的重复对决非常罕见。例如，在过去的41（41个！）年中，只有一个 - 2008年和2009年的企鹅和红翅膀发生。

Here’s a list of all 12 of the championship rematches in NHL history:

这是NHL历史上所有12个冠军重赛的清单：

2008/09: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Detroit Red Wings

2008/09：匹兹堡企鹅与底特律红翼

1983/84: Edmonton Oilers vs. New York Islanders

1983/84：埃德蒙顿油人与纽约岛民

1977/78: Montreal Canadiens vs. Boston Bruins

1977/78：蒙特利尔加拿大人与波士顿棕熊

1968/69: Montreal Canadiens vs. St. Louis Blues

1968/69：蒙特利尔加拿大人与圣路易斯蓝调

1963/64: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings

1963/64：多伦多枫叶与底特律红翼

1959/60: Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

1959/60：蒙特利尔加拿大人与多伦多枫叶

1957/58: Montreal Canadiens vs. Boston Bruins

1957/58：蒙特利尔加拿大人与波士顿棕熊

1955/56: Montreal Canadiens vs. Detroit Red Wings

1955/56：蒙特利尔加拿大人与底特律红翼

1954/55: Detroit Red Wings vs. Montreal Canadiens

1954/55：底特律红翼与蒙特利尔加拿大人

1948/49: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings

1948/49：多伦多枫叶与底特律红翼

1932/33: New York Rangers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

1932/33：纽约游骑兵队与多伦多枫叶

1923/24: Montreal Canadiens vs. Ottawa Senators

1923/24：蒙特利尔加拿大人与渥太华参议员

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