中本聰是誰？這重要嗎？

自2008年著名的比特幣白皮書發布以來，「中本聰」的身份一直是人們激烈猜測的話題

Bitcoin’s inventor remains resolutely anonymous, despite the best efforts of journalists, enthusiasts, and even the High Court of England and Wales to unmask him or her. Now, however, HBO documentary Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery claims to have finally achieved what no one else has in the cryptocurrency’s 16 years of existence: revealing the real ‘Satoshi Nakamoto.’

儘管記者、愛好者、甚至英格蘭和威爾斯高等法院盡了最大努力來揭露比特幣的發明者，但比特幣的發明者仍然完全匿名。然而現在，HBO 紀錄片《Money Electric：比特幣之謎》聲稱終於實現了加密貨幣誕生 16 年來無人能及的成就：揭示真正的「中本聰」。

The film makes some bold claims, and as someone who was bitten by the Bitcoin bug early on, and who subsequently devoted my career to the transformative blockchain-based technologies that followed in its wake, I’m, of course, fascinated to know who the real Satoshi is. But there are far more pressing questions to consider: does his or her identity really matter? And will revealing it do more harm than good?

這部電影做出了一些大膽的主張，作為一個很早就被比特幣迷住的人，後來又將我的職業生涯奉獻給隨之而來的基於區塊鏈的變革性技術，我當然很想知道誰真正的中本聰是。但還有更迫切的問題需要考慮：他或她的身分真的很重要嗎？揭露它會弊大於利嗎？

The King (or Queen) of Crypto

加密貨幣之王（或女王）

The identity of ‘Satoshi’ has been the subject of intense speculation since the publication of the famous Bitcoin Whitepaper in 2008, and it’s fast becoming the modern-day equivalent of historical whodunnits like Bigfoot or Mary Celeste. Some have sought to capitalize on the intense public interest by claiming to be this mysterious man. Earlier this year, the High Court of England and Wales ruled that Australian businessman and computer scientist Craig Wright was categorically not the inventor of Bitcoin. (Wright now faces the prospect of prosecution for perjury.)

自2008 年著名的比特幣白皮書發布以來，“中本聰”的身份一直是人們強烈猜測的話題，並且它正在迅速成為現代偵探小說中的“大腳怪”或“瑪麗·塞萊斯特” 。有些人試圖利用大眾的強烈興趣，聲稱自己就是這個神秘的人。今年早些時候，英格蘭和威爾斯高等法院裁定澳洲商人和電腦科學家克雷格·賴特絕對不是比特幣的發明者。 （賴特現在面臨著因作偽證而被起訴的可能性。）

Whenever anyone claims to be Satoshi, I’m always reminded of that line in Monty Python’s Life of Brian: “Only the true Messiah denies his divinity.” To understand why, we need to delve a little into the culture of cryptography. People who develop codes and cybersecurity technology tend to be reclusive by temperament, while the nature of their work is conducive to that type of personality. Revealing too much (or anything) about yourself is antithetical to the philosophy of cryptography, which forms the foundation for the whole Bitcoin model.

每當有人聲稱自己是中本聰時，我總會想起 Monty Python 的《布萊恩傳》中的那句話：“只有真正的彌賽亞否認他的神性。”為了理解其中的原因，我們需要深入研究密碼文化。開發程式碼和網路安全技術的人往往性格孤僻，而他們的工作性質有利於這種性格。過度透露自己（或任何事情）與密碼學哲學是對立的，而密碼學構成了整個比特幣模型的基礎。

In other words, someone who says they’re not Satoshi is likelier to be him than someone who claims they are.

換句話說，自稱不是中本聰的人比自稱是中本聰的人更有可能是中本聰。

Did they get the right man?

他們找到合適的人了嗎？

Of course, this doesn’t mean that Peter K. Todd – the person identified in Money Electric and confronted by Hoback at the end of the film – is the right person, just because he vociferously denies it. As we’ve seen, however, when it comes to Bitcoin’s inventor, denial does nothing to dispel speculation; cynics might well reply, “Well, he would say that, wouldn’t he?”

當然，這並不意味著彼得·K·托德（Peter K. Todd）——《金錢電子》中提到的並在影片結尾與霍巴克對峙的人——就是正確的人選，僅僅因為他極力否認這一點。然而，正如我們所看到的，當談到比特幣的發明者時，否認並不能消除猜測。憤世嫉俗者很可能會回答：“好吧，他會這麼說，不是嗎？”

Yet most people closely involved in Bitcoin and blockchain feel that Hoback is way off the mark and that Todd is certainly not Satoshi. How do we know? Ironically, it’s thanks to the very blockchain technologies that Satoshi himself helped unleash.

然而，大多數與比特幣和區塊鏈密切相關的人都認為霍巴克的說法完全不合事實，而且托德肯定不是中本聰。我們怎麼知道？諷刺的是，這要歸功於中本聰本人幫助釋放的區塊鏈技術。

A few weeks ago, I wrote about Polymarket, the decentralized platform that enables users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events. Since launch, Polymarket has swiftly become the world’s largest prediction market, with users staking $1 billion so far on the outcome of everything from the US Presidential Election to (inevitably) Satoshi's identity.

幾週前，我寫了一篇有關 Polymarket 的文章，這是一個去中心化平台，使用戶能夠對現實世界事件的結果進行押注。自推出以來，Polymarket 已迅速成為全球最大的預測市場，迄今為止，用戶已在從美國總統選舉到（不可避免的）中本聰身份等各種結果上押注了 10 億美元。

Polymarket is a powerful prediction tool because people are much more likely to be honest when their money is at stake, compared with responding to opinion pollsters. On the question of whether Todd is Satoshi, the answer from Polymarket’s participants is clear: not only do they not think Hoback got the right man, but Todd wasn’t even among the ‘candidates.’

Polymarket 是一個強大的預測工具，因為與回應民調相比，當人們的錢受到威脅時，人們更有可能誠實。關於托德是否是中本聰的問題，Polymarket 參與者的答案很明確：他們不僅認為霍巴克沒有找到合適的人選，而且托德甚至不在“候選人”之列。

Will we ever find out Satoshi’s identity? If the ‘wisdom of crowds’ is correct, we shouldn’t expect this to be revealed any time soon. A massive 98% of people on Polymarket are betting that Satoshi will remain unidentified in 2024.

我們會查出中本聰的身份嗎？如果「群眾的智慧」是正確的，我們就不應該指望這一點很快就會被揭露。 Polymarket 上 98% 的人打賭中本聰到 2024 年仍將身份不明。

Bitcoin endures

比特幣經久不衰

The big question looming over all this is: does it really matter who invented Bitcoin? Equally, is it important that we, its users, know?

籠罩在這一切之上的一個大問題是：誰發明了比特幣真的很重要嗎？同樣，我們（其用戶）知道這一點很重要嗎？

Unsurprisingly, Cullen Hoback thinks this matters very much. In an interview with CNN, the director points out that ‘Satoshi’ continues to exert a huge degree of control, owning a million or so bitcoins. Given that there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins and that an estimated three to four million have been lost forever through lost wallets, ‘abandonments,’ and other causes, that’s an incredibly significant stake.

毫不奇怪，卡倫霍巴克認為這非常重要。在接受 CNN 採訪時，這位主管指出，「中本聰」繼續施加巨大的控制權，擁有大約一百萬個比特幣。考慮到比特幣的存世量只有 2,100 萬枚，而且估計有 300 到 400 萬枚比特幣因錢包丟失、「遺棄」和其他原因而永遠丟失，這是一個非常重要的賭注。

We all love rich lists, and the fact that ‘Satoshi’ has a personal bitcoin wealth of at least $63 billion (at current valuations) is undoubtedly of interest to the public. That’s not the same as being in the public interest, however. Yes, having such a large proportion of all the bitcoin that will ever exist does give Satoshi the ability to play havoc with Bitcoin’s short-term market value by, say, dumping all his coins without warning.

我們都喜歡富豪榜，而「中本聰」擁有至少 630 億美元的個人比特幣財富（按當前估值）這一事實無疑引起了公眾的興趣。然而，這並不等於符合公共利益。是的，擁有如此大比例的比特幣確實讓中本聰有能力在沒有警告的情況下拋售所有比特幣，從而對比特幣的短期市場價值造成嚴重破壞。

Yet, as any Bitcoiner knows, the cryptocurrency’s long-term value is driven by utility, not speculation. Moreover, the

然而，正如任何比特幣愛好者所知，加密貨幣的長期價值是由實用性而非投機驅動的。此外，